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AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

martinalderson.com

311–320 of 398 posts

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue it's not CEOs job to code his own dashboards... This sounds like a vibe coding side project. And I'm sorry, but whatever he builds will most likely become tech debt that has to be rewritten at some point.

Or to steel-man it, it could also end up as a prototype that forced the end user to deal with decision points, and can serve as a framework for a much more specific requirements discussion.

Exactly -- vibe coded PoC becomes a living spec for prod

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#312

This article made no sense to me. It is talking about AI-generated code eating SaaS. That's not what is going to replace SaaS. When AI is able to do the job itself — without generating code — that's what is going to replace SaaS. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay…

The bit about building an internal app for eg marketing or sales is super fun. Getting calls starting at 8am EST because they then (reasonably!) expect it to work less so. Software still has an enormous ktlo tax and until that changes, I'm skeptical about the entire thesis.

Not to mention the author appears to run a 1-2 person company, so ... yeah. AI thought leadership ahoy.

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#313
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For one thing, the threat model assumes customers can build their own tools. That's not the threat model. The threat model is that they won't have to - at some point which may not be right now. End users want to get their work done, not learn UIs and new products. If they can get their analysis/reports based on excels which are already on SharePoint (or wherever), they'd want just that. You can already see this hap…

The president of a company I work with is a youngish guy who has no technical skills, but is resourceful. He wanted updated analytic dashboards, but there’s no dev capacity for that right now. So he decided he was going to try his hand at building his own dashboard using Lovable, which is one of these AI app making outfits. I sent him a copy of the dev database and a few markdown files with explanations regarding cer…

> No updates yet, but I have every confidence he’ll figure it out.

"It" being "that it's harder than it looks"?

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#314
post #181
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clojure is just better than CL in pretty much every respect. Excellent and well designed standard library, great concurrency primitives, core.async, built-in transducers (CL has SERIES which does a kind-of similar thing, but isn't as well designed and integrated) and the dominant immutability all let me write more maintainable code. Also, I can re-use model code on the client side (ClojureScript), so there is lots of…

I did not try Clojure so I cannot comment on how well implemented the features you quote are, when compared to CL. All I can say is that CL also provides much of the same functionality with its standard, cl-async, lparallel, parenscript, while (im)mutability is a matter of preference (IMO correct decision by CL) rather than dominance. The way I see it, is that CL is superior (opinion) due to reader macros and native…

I used CL for many years before I switched to Clojure. And by "used" I mean really used it, not just for applications, but I also dove into CL implementations, for example I added return-from-frame (also known as debug-return) to CMUCL.

So, I kind of know what I'm talking about :-) And I don't miss anything from CL: I honestly can't find a single reason to switch back to CL.

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#315
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The president of a company I work with is a youngish guy who has no technical skills, but is resourceful. He wanted updated analytic dashboards, but there’s no dev capacity for that right now. So he decided he was going to try his hand at building his own dashboard using Lovable, which is one of these AI app making outfits. I sent him a copy of the dev database and a few markdown files with explanations regarding cer…

All tech problems are actually people problems. once the Csuite builds their own dashboards, they quickly decide what they actually need versus what is a nice to have.

And I wonder if they will discover that in order to interpret those numbers in a lot of cases they will need to bring in their direct reports to contextualise them.

If corporate decisions could be made purely from the data recorded then you don't need people to make those decisions. The reason you often do is that a lot of the critical information for decision making is brought in to the meeting out-of-band in people's heads.

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#316

I'm CTO at a vertical SaaS company, paired with a product-focused CEO with deep domain expertise. The thesis doesn't match my experience. For one thing, the threat model assumes customers can build their own tools. Our end users can't. Their current "system" is Excel. The big enterprises that employ them have thousands of devs, but two of them explicitly cloned our product and tried to poach their own users onto it.…

That's basically the conclusion of the library:

> But my key takeaway would be that if your product is just a SQL wrapper on a billing system, you now have thousands of competitors: engineers at your customers with a spare Friday afternoon with an agent.

I think the issue is that the "two of them explicitly cloned" were trying to clone something that's more than "just a SQL wrapper on a billing system."

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#317
post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The technology of LLMs is already applicable to valuable enough problems, therefore it won’t be a bubble. Dot-com was a bubble despite being applicable to valuable problems. So were railways when the US had a bubble on those. Bubbles don't just mean tulips. What we've got right now, I'm saying the money will run out and not all the current players will win any money from all their spending. It's even possible that…

The big models will never run locally, and I doubt that titan and co will run locally, just way to much resources needed

"never" vs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law

Observably, the biggest models we have right now have similar complexity to a rodent's brain, which runs on far less power. Limiting factors for chips in your phone is power, power efficiency is improving rapidly.

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#318

> Agents don't leave How wrong the author is about that! IMO As soon as the bubble bursts, which is already evident and imminent, these agents will raise their subscription fees to ridiculous amounts. And when that happens, entire organizations will abandon them and return to good ol' human engineering

> IMO As soon as the bubble bursts, which is already evident and imminent, these agents will raise their subscription fees to ridiculous amounts. And when that happens, entire organizations will abandon them and return to good ol' human engineering It's worse than you state; a primary premise of the current AI expansion and investment, continuously repeated, is that computational resources are increasing for the same…

The way things are going personal computing will be a thing of the past. It started with GPUs being too expensive but now it’s RAM and eventually SSDs.

We’ll need AI not because it is actually better but because future generations won’t have personal computing hardware to start learning when they are 7.

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "we'll just build it internally" or "we can just throw it into an LLM" all of the time. Is that a bluff used to negotiate the price?

If it is a credible bluff, does it work?

No because it is never a credible bluff. You would not be having the conversation if it was.

In fact having sold stuff If a lead says this, it is a huge red flag for me that I probably don't want to do business with them because they are probably a "vampire customer"

Re: AI agents are starting to eat SaaS

#320
post #292
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of that matters to this point, though I'd dispute some of it if I thought it did. "Can they keep charging money for it?", that's the question that matters here.

It matters to the comparison being made between the dot com boom and an ai boom, they have completely different fundamentals outside of the hype train. There were not as many consumers buying online during dot com boom. To the extent currently more is being spent on AI than anything in the dot com boom. Nor did companies run their businesses in the cloud, because there was no real broadband. There’s no doubt there’s…

I don't pay anyone for an image generator AI, because I can run an adequate image generator locally on my own personal computer.

My computer doesn't have enough RAM to run the state of the art in free LLMs, but such computers can be bought and are even affordable by any business and a lot of hobbyists.

Given this, the only way for model providers to stay ahead is to spend a lot on training ever better models to beat the free ones that are being given away. And buy "spend a lot" I mean they are making a loss.

This means that the similarity with the dot com bubble can be expressed with the phrase "losing money on every sale and making up for it in volume".

Hardware efficiency is also still improving; just as I can even run that image model locally on my phone, an LLM equivalent to SOTA today should run on a high-end smartphone in 2030.

Not much room to charge people for what runs on-device.

So, they are in a Red Queen's race, running as hard as they can just to stay where they are. And where they are today, is losing money.

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