Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#311

Post by blackqueeriroh » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 5:12 AM UTC

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #288

xracy wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I interpret this as the comment saying "we won't know how this affected things until decades from now." Which can likely be attributed to existing vaccine skepticism and is unlikely to result in them changing their opinion in the next ever. What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID. They feel like they're being asked something risky in a vacuum, when i…

> What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID Why do people still frame this as either/or? How many people out there didn't get covid after they got some number of shots? The only real scenario is covid with n shots, where n >= 0. In other words, when you got covid, how many shots had you gotten. (Not anti vax myself, though generally avoid whatever drug…

Many people have never had Covid.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#312

Post by blackqueeriroh » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 6:01 AM UTC

trts wrote: post #257

vkou wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when you do, the critics will just shift the goal posts, again.

most of the critics of this particular vaccine are the ones that took it. either the people who got covid anyway or were injured by it. it was incredibly destructive for trust in the medical establishment to oversell / mandate it and market aggressively as "safe and effective". while most vaccine risks are in the 10s per 100k or 1M, nearly everybody knows somebody else who had an adverse reaction to one of the covid…

“nearly everybody knows somebody else who had an adverse reaction to one of the covid shots.”

This is a straight up lie - because “adverse reaction” does not mean “I felt achy for a couple days and maybe had a little fever,” it’s actually a VERY specific term.

But you are trying to peddle falsehoods.

Most people know nobody who “had an adverse reaction to one of the covid shots”

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#313

Post by blackqueeriroh » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 6:12 AM UTC

on_the_train wrote: post #131

dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

Yeah maybe forcing people to get them triggered some kind of skepticism, how about that

Who forced you to get one? Did they hold you down and shove it in your arm?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#314

Post by blackqueeriroh » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 6:20 AM UTC

oxag3n wrote: post #277

I'm a bit uneasy about so many people being pro-science and still falling into all the fallacies scientific method tried to address. Disclaimer: I'm pro vaccine, I do think Covid vaccines saved a lot of lives. I still think the risk is relatively low even after getting an onset of auto-immune disease 3 days after the shot (diagnosis confirmed 2 years after it started after mRNA booster) and sister in law getting anot…

Do you have a PhD or an MD?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#315

Post by blackqueeriroh » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 6:26 AM UTC

sdo72 wrote: post #286

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm having a hard time following your second paragraph, but I don't see where you're questioning the cause of these issues to be covid itself instead of the vaccines? That's my biggest problem with the "I now have X problem after the vaccine" crowd; quick to blame the vaccine, but they never question whether it was the virus itself that caused it. My dad is one of these people and it infuriates me to no end that he d…

We all started getting weird symptoms after the vaccines, not after having covid, you got it backward. I am not quick to blame the vaccine. If you take the vaccine and immediately after you start develop symptoms, then the chances that the vaccine are doing something strange to the body are very likely, not the virus infection. And these don't get diagnosed with Covid or having Covid symptoms before, it must be somet…

Are you aware that to this day, 30% of all Covid cases are asymptomatic, aka you CANNOT tell that you have had it?

Until, of course, you start to have all of the exact things you’re sharing right now.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#316

Post by tavavex » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 6:31 AM UTC

albeebe1 wrote: post #304

tavavex wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That only works if: 1. You assume that your LLM of choice is perfect and impartial on every given topic, ever. 2. You assume that your prompt doesn't interfere with said impartiality. What you have written may seem neutral at first glance, but from my perspective, a wording like yours would probably prime the model to try to pick apart absolutely anything, finding flaws that aren't really there (or make massive stret…

you're reading to much into it. i make no assumptions.

It doesn't matter if you make assumptions or not - your prompt does. I think the point of failure isn't even necessarily the LLM, but your writing - because you leave the model no leeway or a way to report back on something truly neutral or impartial. Instead, you're asking it to dig up any proof of wrongdoing no matter what, basically saying that lies surely exist in whatever you post, and you just need help uncovering all the deception. When told to do this, it would read absolutely anything you give it in the most hostile way possible, stringing together any coherent-sounding arguments that would reinforce the viewpoint that your prompt implies.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#317

Post by blub » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 7:33 AM UTC

jobs_throwaway wrote: post #148

blub wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Doesn’t kill you” is the absolute bare minimum and a very low bar. Because the vaccines were so rushed, it’s still reassuring, but not at all a testament to the safety of mRNA vaccines. The more interesting studies will be about non-lethal adverse reactions. Changes to menstruation, heart problems, lymph node swelling to name just a few.

>lymph node swelling you mean immune response? Which vaccines are supposed to induce?

No, severe swelling and pain, which in the case I know about resulted in a hospital visit.

More info: https://www.thieme-connect.de/products/ejournals/pdf/10.1055...

Fortunately doctors and medical organizations usually take these matters seriously, unlike the average techbro. A good example is how the vaccination recommendations were changed to avoid Moderna for young men to reduce the risk of heart problems.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#318

Post by HaZeust » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 8:08 AM UTC

triceratops wrote: post #289

HaZeust wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They excluded initial doses before May 2021, as well; in case you look at a calendar - that fits the criteria. Something doesn't square.

My memory is failing me right now. When did they start vaccinating en masse?

I got it December 2020

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#319

Post by HaZeust » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 8:10 AM UTC

jibal wrote: post #291

HaZeust wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"post hoc ergo propter hoc" Appealing to an informal fallacy, and not even using it right. The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy hinges on the fact that one's argument assumes that just because one event happened chronologically first, it must have caused the one(s) that chronologically came after. GP did more than that and didn't simply say "X happened first, so I think it's responsible for Y." He gave correlative…

> Appealing to an informal fallacy I didn't appeal to one, I pointed one out. And there's something wrong now with pointing out fallacies just because they are informal? Apparently you don't understand what "informal" means in logic. (Or there's bad faith--a good case can be made here.) > it's easy to see this comment having more than fallacy. And yet you failed to point out a single one. You say that I used post hoc…

>"Or there's bad faith--a good case can be made here."

>"I won't respond further."

The jokes write themselves. Best of luck in life with that approach.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#320

Post by blub » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 8:17 AM UTC

danaris wrote: post #305

gus_massa wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like accurate communication from the beginning. >> “you won’t get sick or spread the disease” I read that many times. It was a totally unrealistic promise, because not even all the other vaccines do that, even after years of research and improvements. (In particular, here is a big trade off in the inyectable vs oral vaccine for polio.) Who is the highest ranking person that said it? I guess it was not one of the…

> I'd like accurate communication from the beginning. So you want magic. Got it. In situations like the one five years ago, perfect understanding of how a new vaccine will interact with a relatively new virus is not going to be available. Even more, perfect understanding of how good our information is at any given point in time is not always going to be available. There were definitely some failures to communicate we…

Comparing accurate communication with magic is nonsense.

Both in Europe and the US, the government screwed up badly both mask strategic stockpiles and procurement. Therefore, the official message was that “masks don’t work”. After they were finally able to procure masks, they magically started working. That is the real magic, not demanding competence for people whose jobs were literally not fucking this up.

Meanwhile China and South Korea were producing and using masks as was normal.

The second magical part is the gaslighting about the performance of institutions tasked with pandemic preparation and about the exaggerated and incompetent government measures like fining people for going outside, forbidding people from going to work without being vaccinated or mandatorily tested each day, etc.

Vaccine safety issues were consistently downplayed by the media and in internet forums like this one. In the end, the EU-CDC published clear information on the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine and it was much worse than for mRNA vaccines. One mRNA vaccine was worse than the other.