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We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

aitradearena.com

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Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#311

Post by timacles »

stouset wrote: post #153
chris_st wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you will have trained your model on market patterns that might not be in place anymore My working definition of technical analysis [0] [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

I am frankly astonished at the number of otherwise-intelligent people who actually seem to believe in this stuff. One of the worst possible things to do in a competitive market is to trade by some publicly-available formulaic strategy. It’s like announcing your rock-paper-scissors move to your opponent in advance.

Technical Analysis isnt a system of predicting the future. Its an analysis of what has happened in the past. You are fundamentally misunderstanding what you're talking about.

Its just a system of interpreting money flows and trends on a graph.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#312

Post by IshKebab »

zer0tonin wrote: post #216
Nevermark wrote: post #60

Just one run per model? That isn't backtesting. I mean technically it is, but "testing" implies producing meaningful measures. Also just one time interval? Something as trivial as "buy AI" could do well in one interval, and given models are going to be pumped about AI, ... 100 independent runs on each model over 10 very different market behavior time intervals would producing meaningful results. Like actually credibl…

Not only just one run per model, but no metrics other than total return. If you pick stocks at random you have a very high chance of beating the S&P 500, so you need a bit more than that to make a good benchmark.

And no control! What if you add 5 more traders that just pick randomly?

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#314

Post by KellyCriterion »

tim333 wrote: post #251
derrida wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dear HFT Quant, > And yes, the algos do care about your little 1 lot order. I'm just your usual "corrupted nerd" geek with some mathematics and computer security background interests - 2 questions if I may 1. what's like the most interesting paper you have read recently or unrelated thing you are interested in at the moment? 2. " And yes, the algos do care about your little 1 lot order." How would one see this effect…

Retail speculator here. Re 2 it's often quite easy to demo on thinly traded markets - I'm more familiar with crypto. Say the spread is 81.00 buy, 81.03 sell. Put in a limit buy at 81.00 and watch someone/something immediately outbid you ate 81.01. In the short term that kind of thing is done by algorithms but there are humans behind it and doing it too. There's quite a lot of other game playing going on also.

if you are targeting such "scales" you are highly speculative, that is something like 0.0xx% :-D Can you sleep well with this? :-))

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#315

Post by KellyCriterion »

Maxatar wrote: post #291
chroma205 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are no exchanges where market makers get any kind of priority to bypass the FIFO queue. Nope, several large, active, and liquid markets in the US. Legally it’s not named “bypass the FIFO queue”. That would be dumb. In practice, it goes by politically correct names such as “designated market maker fill” or “institutional order prioritization” or “leveling round”.

I can tell you as someone who is a designated market maker on several ETFs in the U.S., none of this exists as a means of giving market makers priority fills. You're taking existing terms and misusing them. For example institutional order prioritization is used as a wash trade prevention mechanism, not as a way for designated market makers to get some kind of fill preference. Leveling rounds also do not involve excha…

++1

thanks

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#316

Post by [deleted] »

richardhenry wrote: post #80
dash2 wrote: post #10

There's also this thing going on right now: https://nof1.ai/leaderboard Results are... underwhelming. All the AIs are focused on daytrading Mag7 stocks; almost all have lost money with gusto.

If I'm understanding this website correctly, these models can only trade in a handful of tech stocks along with the XYZ100 hyperliquid coin?

[deleted]

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#317

Post by taneq »

chasing0entropy wrote: post #204
taneq wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any time I invent a cool thing, I go and try and find it online. Usually it's already an established product, which totally validates my feeling that the thing I invented is cool and would be a good product. :D Occasionally it's (as far as I can tell) a legitimately new 'wow that's obvious' style thing and I consider prototyping it. :)

What have you prototyped recently? Anything you have released to market? I'm in the same general area by am teetering on actually launching products wouldn't mind connecting with a like minded e gineer

One thing that I think has real potential is a portable split system aircon for workshops and garages. The all-in-one aircon units have terrible efficiency but split systems require expensive installation that can cost as much as the unit itself. This compromise gets you the best of both worlds.

I built one a year or two ago out of a crusty old second hand split system, and a scrap metal frame that holds the indoor heat exchanger at about head height, and the outdoor heat exchanger back-to-back with it with a ~500mm gap. You open the roller door, position the frame with the outdoor side outside and the indoor side inside, close the roller door, and plug it in. Voila! Aircon! It was way undersized (2.5kW cooling) for my workshop but it still made a noticeable difference. Gonna build a 7kW cooling version for this summer.

I think there's heaps of people with garage workshops that would benefit from something like this. You could also make one where the frame slips through a vertical gap rather than a horizontal one, so it can be set up through a sliding door, allowing renters to use one in houses where the owner refuses to install it.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#318

Post by throwaway422432 »

Have asked LLMs for smallcap trading ideas on the ASX a few times.

Grok often suggested shares that jumped significantly within the next few weeks. Wondering if it's access to Twitter gave it an advantage in predicting major upswings based on general sentiment.

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