311–320 of 427 posts
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The quintessential out of touch HN comment.
I have friends with kids, have siblings with kids, and indeed did grow up in the US. Ate cereal growing up with maybe some eggs on the weekend. My siblings feed their kids exactly what I described. My friends feed their kids the same. I have no idea how that is out of touch, but I grew up lower-middle class and that's my lived experience.
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I don’t think they’re working at 100% capacity or don’t have any other FAB that they can utilize for other low profit stuff. Let’s check their books and manufacturing schedule to see if they’re artificially constraining the supply to jack up the prices on purpose.
I'd take the opposite bet on this. They're diverting wafer capacity from lower-profit items to things like HBM, but all indications are that wafer starts are up a bit. Just not up enough. For example: https://chipsandwafers.substack.com/p/mainstream-recovery "Sequentially, DRAM revenue increased 15% with bit shipments increasing over 20% and prices decreasing in the low single-digit percentage range, primarily due to…
They’ve been acting like a cartel for a long time now and somehow they never match the demand even after 18 months straight price increases. They already have the fab, the procedures, and everything, so stop acting like they’re setting up a brand new fab just to increase throughput.
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I usually use an M2 Mac at work, and haven't really touched Windows since 2008. Recently I had to get an additional Windows laptop (Lenovo P series) for a project my team is working on, and it is such a piece of shit. It's unfathomable that people are tolerating Windows or Intel (and then still have the gall to talk shit about Macs). It's like time travelling back to 2004. Slow, loud fans, random brief freezes of the…
There will be not so big difference if you compare laptops in the same price brackets. Cheap PCs are crap.
Expensive PCs are also crap. My work offers Macbooks or Windows laptops (currently, Dell, but formerly Lenovo and/or HP), and these machines are all decidedly not 'cheap' PCs. Often retailing in excess of $2k.
All my coworkers who own Windows laptops do is bellyache about random issues, poor battery life, and sluggish performance.
I used to have a Windows PC for work about 3 years ago as well, and it was also a piece of crap. Battery would decide to 'die' at 50% capacity. After replacement, 90 minute battery life off charger. Fan would decide to run constantly if you did anything even moderately intensive such as a Zoom meeting.
The manufacturers are willing to quadruple the prices for the foreseeable future but not change their manufacturing quotes a bit. So much for open markets, somebody must check their books and manufacturing schedules.
Most of the things people say about efficient markets assume low barriers to entry. When it takes years and tens of billions of dollars to add capacity, it makes more sense to sit back and enjoy the margins. Especially if you think there's a non-trivial possibility that the AI build out is a bubble.
You want to tame their cartel like behaviors? Just get into their books and it would be clear as day if they’re artificially constraining the supply, and I’m not even talking about spending extra billions.
You cannot manufacture something that modern life depends on and not get government scrutiny.
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Am I crazy for thinking that anyone using computers for doing their job and making their income should have a $5k/year computer hardware budget at a minimum ? I’m not saying to do what I do and buy a $7k laptop and a $15k desktop every year but compared to revenue it seems silly to be worrying about a few thousand dollars per year delta. I buy the best phones and desktops money can buy, and upgrade them often, becaus…
Most people who use computers for the main part of their jobs literally can't spend that much if they don't want to be homeless. Most of the rest arguably shouldn't. If you have $10k/yr in effective pay after taxes, healthcare, rent, food, transportation to your job, etc, then a $5k/yr purchase is insane, especially if you haven't built up an emergency fund yet. Of the rest (people who can relatively easily afford it…
From the perspective of an individual, ROI has to be large to justify a $5k/yr investment. HOWEVER, the general principle of "if something is your livelihood, then you should be willing to invest in it as appropriate" is an excellent thing to keep in mind. Moreover, at the scale of a company and typical company decisions the advice makes a ton of sense -- if a $1k monitor and $2k laptop allow your employees to context-switch better or something then you should almost certainly invest in that hardware (contrasted with the employee's view of ROI, the investments are tax-deductible and just have to pay off in absolute value, plus they don't have the delay/interaction with wages/promotions/etc introducing uncertainty and loss into the calculation) (the difference between a few hundred dollars and a few thousand dollars in total capital investment probably does have a huge difference in outcomes for a lot of computer-based employee roles).
I'm running a box I put together in 2014 with an i5-4460 (3.2ghz), 16 GB of RAM, GeForce 750ti, first gen SSD, ASRock H97M Pro4 motherboard with a reasonable PSU, case and a number of fans. All of that parted out at the time was $700. I've never been more fearful of components breaking than current day. With GPU and now memory prices being crazy, I hope I never have to upgrade. I don't know how but the box is still g…
> For general computer usage, SSDs really were a once in a generation "holy shit, this upgrade makes a real difference" thing. The last one were I really remember seeing a huge speed bump was going from a regular SSD to a NVMe M.2 PCIe SSD... Around 2015 I bought one of the very first consumer motherboard with a NVMe M.2 slot and put a Samsung 950 Pro in it: that was quite something (now I was upgrading the entire ma…
Obviously the net effect was to silo all the different departments so that nobody really knew how the entire product worked, except the few smokers who'd regularly go outside and smoke for 15+ minutes and chat to whoever else was around.
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Problem is MSRP is also inflated, and Covid has locked that in. Arc Battlemage is the only exception I see.
You’ve never been able to buy more GPU performance per dollar than you can today.
Apple has the opportunity to do something really funny and radically increase the base RAM configurations of all their unified memory/CPU/GPU chips. Intel/AMD builders would struggle to meet the price/capacity points.
Don't they have to pay the same crazy prices? What gives them the opportunity?
The manufacturers are willing to quadruple the prices for the foreseeable future but not change their manufacturing quotes a bit. So much for open markets, somebody must check their books and manufacturing schedules.
If it’s an AI bubble, it would be stupid to open new manufacturing capacity right now. Spend years and billions spinning up a new fab, only to have the bottom of the market drop out as soon as it comes online.
You can ramp up production in limited capacity, make long term contracts, or pass the manufacturing rust to the buyer. When we needed a vertical stabilizer for a legacy aircraft we paid for an entire production like to be built just to manufacture two tails, so there are tons of ways to do this if you want to be competitive. But instead this is a cartel like market where manufacturers colluded before, so they’re more likely to collude than spend billions doing anything.
Just open their books and schedules with a competent auditors and see if they’re artificially manipulating things or not.