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Datacenters in space aren't going to work

taranis.ie

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Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#311
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only real advantage is 24/7 power without having to use batteries (or some other power supply at night or when cloudy). The way solar prices are going the problem of suppling power when the sun isn’t visible is a real bottleneck.

Is there an orbit which has 24/7 sun and a visibility to same location?

Geosynchronous orbits do not pass through the Earth's shadow as much as you might think. These orbits sit in the same plane as the equator, which is tilted 23.5 degrees when compared to a line from the sun to the earth.

They still pass through the earth's shadow in the weeks around the equinoxes though. Worst case is about 70 minutes of shadow.

That said, it seems more likely to me that there is no requirement to stay over the same spot on the earth, and a lower altitude sun-synchronous orbit would be used.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#312
post #120

Datacenters in space is about circumventing nation states masked as ambitions to generate more power. Follow the rationale: 1. Nation states ultimately control three key infrastructure pieces required to run data centers (a) land (protected by sovereign armed forces) (b) internet / internet infra (c) electricity. If crypto ever became a legitimate threat, nation states could simply seize any one of or all these three…

Space is the least nation-state-independent place to do computing in existence. All proposed space computing has an incredibly short orbital lifespan (less than 5y). Every single space launch capable rocket provider in the world is financially, regulatorily, and militarily joined at the hip to a single government. No launches are taking place without that government’s say-so. Also, space infrastructure is incredibly…

That really depends on the cost asymmetry between building + launching sats being cheaper or more expensive than taking down all those sats.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#313
One mistake that the article seems to make is to assume that the data center is in one huge satellite.

I think a better model would be a fleet of rack or server level satellites. That significantly reduces the heat and cooling requirements and improves redundancy since losing a single satellite sure to radiation would be less significant. Further, due to economies of scale these satellites could be produced in mass, similar to the starlink satellites of today.

One issue is that these satellites would be to be connected via high bandwidth free space optical links instead of Ethernet, requiring precise formations, but that is currently being tested by multiple companies.

That being said, I don't see this ever being cheaper than terrestrial data centers. I just don't think the idea is as stupid as the article implies - it just requires doing things differently than NASA has done in the past.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#314
I think it's important to be distinct here... These "Space DC" companies are not showing up on some Techy-Shark-Tank (or walking into VC meetings) with a promise to investors that they have an established strategy which will pay off.

IMO, they are just answering the question: "If we pour 100B into R&D, could it have a reasonable chance at succeeding?".

For Nvidia (or these other massive companies) the investment is chump change.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#315

To say the quiet part out loud, I don't think any serious companies have any intention to build a data center in space. There is no benefit in actually trying this. There is however, benefit in saying you'll do it to advance a narrative and distract from the problems terrestrial data centers are facing to an audience that mostly doesn't understand how heat transfer in a vacuum works.

The only real advantage is 24/7 power without having to use batteries (or some other power supply at night or when cloudy). The way solar prices are going the problem of suppling power when the sun isn’t visible is a real bottleneck.

For 24/7 solar... you are either in a sun synchronous orbit or in a very high orbit.

The sun synchronous are polar orbits ($$$) that are preferred for earth observation (so that the sun is casting the same shadows). As these are polar orbits, the satellite is not overhead all the time and getting a satellite into such an orbit takes a bit of work.

A SpaceX is at about $3k / kg to LEO. The numbers I see suggest a $20k / kg to a polar orbit.

The next option is being far enough out of the way that the earth's shadow isn't an issue. For that, instead of a 500 km sun synchronous orbit, you'd be going to 36,000 km orbit. This is a lot further from the surface, takes a lot more fuel... and it's a geostationary orbit.

However, as a geostationary orbit, these spots are valuable. Slots in this orbit are divided into slots.

https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/wealthy-nations-...

> There are only 1,800 geostationary orbital slots, and as of February 2022, 541 of them were occupied by active satellites. Countries and private companies have already claimed most of the unoccupied slots that offer access to major markets, and the satellites to fill them are currently being assembled or awaiting launch. If, for example, a new spacefaring nation wants to put a weather satellite over a specific spot in the Atlantic Ocean that is already claimed, they would either have to choose a less optimal location for the satellite or buy services from the country occupying the spot they wanted.

> Orbital slots are allocated by an agency of the United Nations called the International Telecommunication Union. Slots are free, but they go to countries on a first-come, first-served basis. When a satellite reaches the end of its 15- to 20-year lifespan, a country can simply replace it and renew its hold on the slot. This effectively allows countries to keep these positions indefinitely. Countries that already have the technology to utilize geostationary orbit have a major advantage over those that do not.

Furthermore, the "out of a nations control" - those slots are owned by nations. Countries would likely be very annoyed for someone to be putting satellites there without authorization. Furthermore, they only work with the countries on those areas. They also require spacing to ensure that you can properly point an antenna to that satellite.

Furthermore, geosynchronous orbits have a 0.5 second round trip lag. This could be a problem for data centers.

Misbehaving satellites in the geosynchronous orbit are also of concern ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy_15 ).

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Putting things in these orbits is pricy. For LEO, you'd need a lot of them. For geosynchronous, the idea of servicing them is pretty much a "you can't do that" (in 10 - 20 years they use their last fuel and get pushed to a higher orbit and pretty much get forgotten about).

Satellites in geosynchronous orbit are things that need to be especially well behaved because any orbital debris in that area could really ruin everyone's day.

Compute in space doesn't make sense.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#316
post #291

Datacenters in space have one asymmetrical advantage: FBI cant physically raid them. And with Direct-To-Cell, content delivery satellites in space are unstoppable.

“Dear T-Mobile/Verizon/Starlink, cease your illegal operation within 24 hours or we will start imprisoning executives.”

You don't need other carrier's permission if the direct-to-cell satellite allows anyone to receive data.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"A City on Mars" (2024) I wasn't terribly impressed with this one. I found it mostly just a bundle of vague negativity and insufficient (disingenuous?) use of problem-solving. However if you want to try it then give the rebuttal a fair shake too. https://nss.org/wp-content/uploads/NSS-JOURNAL-Critique-of-A...

"One modern idea that O’Neill did not consider is to move server farms in space, where power is cheap and you can dump heat into space with a black piece of metal." Hmmm.

> "One modern idea that O’Neill did not consider is to move server farms in space, where power is cheap and you can dump heat into space with a black piece of metal."

Minor quibble - radiators are white in the visible spectrum.

https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/8851/why-arent-the...

> The radiators on the ISS are a high-emissivity white paint, meaning that they are dark in the infrared spectrum where the heat is emitted. They are white in the visible spectrum to reflect sunlight.

> The radiators on the shuttle are have a two-layer coating: a silver reflective layer covered by a thin Teflon film. The Teflon layer is opaque to infrared light, so the high emissivity of Teflon dominates. Visible light passes through the Teflon layer and is reflected by the silver layer, so the solar absorbance is low.

https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/473486main_i... - page 14 shows them extended and testing at Lockheed.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#318

I am skeptical as well BUT on the cooling question, which is one of the main concerns we all seem to have, the article is doing a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison between the ISS and a cluster of small satellites. It cites the ISS's centralized 16kW cooling system which is for a big space station that needs to collect and shunt heat over a relatively large area. The Suncatcher prototype is puny in comparison: j…

I mean why not just have a whole bunch of floating buoys doing computation on the ocean? They can probably get energy both from solar and from the tidal wave energy. Cooling certainly won't be an issue.

Communication might be a bit rough.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only advantage I can come up with is the background temperature being much colder than Earth surface. If you ignored the capex cost to get this launched and running in orbit, could the cooling cost be smaller? Maybe that's the gimmick being used to sell the idea. "Yes it costs more upfront but then the 40% cooling bill goes away... breakeven in X years"

Things on earth also have access to that coldness for about half of each day. How many data centers use radiative cooling into the night sky to supplement their regular cooling? The fact that the answer is “zero” should tell you all you need to know about how useful this is.

Look up Tech Ingredients episode on Radiative Paint.

The fact that people aren’t using something isn’t evidence that it’s not possible or even a great idea, it could be that a practical application didn’t exist before or someone enterprising enough hasn’t come along yet.

Re: Datacenters in space aren't going to work

#320

I think it's important to be distinct here... These "Space DC" companies are not showing up on some Techy-Shark-Tank (or walking into VC meetings) with a promise to investors that they have an established strategy which will pay off. IMO, they are just answering the question: "If we pour 100B into R&D, could it have a reasonable chance at succeeding?". For Nvidia (or these other massive companies) the investment is c…

100B is roughly NVIDIA’s yearly profit
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