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Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

dwarkesh.com

311–320 of 374 posts

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#311

> When do you expect that impact? I think the models seem smarter than their economic impact would imply. > Yeah. This is one of the very confusing things about the models right now. As someone who's been integrating "AI" and algorithms into people's workflows for twenty years, the answer is actually simple. It takes time to figure out how exactly to use these tools, and integrate them into existing tooling and workf…

We’re also still at a point where security is a big question mark. My employer won’t let us hook GenAI up to office 365 or slack, so any project or product management use of GenAI first requires manually importing docs into a database and pointing to that. Efficiency gains are hard to come by when you don’t meet people where their “knowledge” is already stored.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#312
post #113
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no way that wasn’t specifically prompted.

The system prompt for Grok on Twitter is open source AFAIK. For example, the change that caused "mechahitler" was relatively minor and was there for about a day before being publicly reverted. https://github.com/xai-org/grok-prompts/commit/c5de4a14feb50...

Sorry, but can you point me to what part of the system prompt here would/could be responsible for causing MechaHitler?

I have yet to see anything in the prompt they claim to have been using that would lead to such output from models by Google, OpenAI or Anthropic.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I'm saying: there is no "direct comparison grounded in neurobiology" for most things, and for many things, there simply can't be one. For the same reason you can't compare gears and springs to silicon circuits 1:1. The low level components diverge too much. Despite all that, the calculator and the arithmometer do the same things. If you can't go up an abstraction level and look past low level implementati…

There is no level of abstraction to go up sans context. Again, let me repeat myself as well: the calculator and the arithmometer do the same things -- from the point of view of the cleric that needs to add and subtract quickly. Otherwise they are simply two completely different objects. And we will have a hard time making correct inferences about how one works based only on how we know the other works, or, e.g. how c…

> Otherwise they are simply two completely different objects.

That's where you're wrong. Both objects reflect the same mathematical operations in their structure.

Even if those were inscrutable alien artifacts to you, even if you knew nothing about who constructed them, how or why? If you studied them, you would be able to see the similarities laid bare.

Their inputs align, their outputs align. And if you dug deep enough? You would find that there are components in them that correspond to the same mathematical operations - even if the two are nothing alike in how exactly they implement them.

LLMs and human brains are "inscrutable alien artifacts" to us. Both are created by inhuman optimization pressures. Both you need to study to find out how they function. It's obvious, though, that their inputs align, and their outputs align. And the more you dig into internals?

I recommend taking a look at Anthropic's papers on SAE - sparse autoencoders. Which is a method that essentially takes the population coding hypothesis and runs with it. It attempts to crack the neural coding used by the LLM internally to pry interpretable features out of it. There are no "grandmother neurons" there - so you need elaborate methods to examine what kind of representations an LLM can learn to recognize and use in its functioning.

Anthropic's work is notable because they have not only managed to extract features that map to some amazingly high level concepts, but also prove causality - interfering with the neuron populations mapped out by SAE changes LLM's behaviors in predictable ways.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#314

Great respect for Ilya, but I don’t see an explicit argument why scaling RL in tons of domains wouldn’t work.

Not sure why they care about his opinion and discard yours.

They’re just as valid and well informed.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#315
Is this like if everyone suddenly got 1gb fiber connections in 1996? We put money into the thing we know (infra), but there's no youtube, netflix, dropbox, etc etc etc. Instead we're still loading static webpages with progressive jpegs and it's like... a waste?

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#317
post #2

So is the translation endless scaling has stopped being as effective?

I'll be convinced LLMs are a reasonable approach to AI when an LLM can give reasonable answers after being trained with approximately the same books and classes in school that I was once I completed my college education.

Why do you think this standard you're applying is reasonable or meaningful?

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also give AI models Nobel-prize winning world literature and ask why this is bad and they will tear apart the text, without ever thinking "wait this is some of the best writing produced by man".

Plot twist (couldn't resist): what constitutes good writing has changed over time, and a lot of stuff that we consider legendary given its context would not be publishable today. Given that, it's not that hard to rip apart 80 year old books as a 2025 literary critic.

Maybe work on leveling up your willpower

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#319
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a part of it indeed. Most people (and even a significant number of economists) assume that the economy is somehow supply-limited (and it doesn't help that most 101 econ class will introduce the markets as a way of managing scarcity), but in reality demand is the limit in 90-ish% of the case. And when it's not, the supply generally don't increase as much as it could, became supplier expect to be demand-limited…

Agreed. If you "create demand", it usually just means people are spending on the thing you provide, and consequently less on something else. Ultimately it goes back to a few basic needs, something like Maslow's hierarchy of needs. And then there's followup needs, such as "if I need to get somewhere to have a social life, I have a need for transportation following from that". A long chain of such follow-up needs gives…

It's not a zero sum game. Think, an agronomist visits a farm, instructs to cut a certain plant for the animals to eat at a certain height instead of whenever, the plant then provides more food for the animals to eat exclusively due to that, no other input in the system, now the animals are cheaper to feed, so more profit to the farmer and cheaper food to people.

How would this be zero sum?

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no level of abstraction to go up sans context. Again, let me repeat myself as well: the calculator and the arithmometer do the same things -- from the point of view of the cleric that needs to add and subtract quickly. Otherwise they are simply two completely different objects. And we will have a hard time making correct inferences about how one works based only on how we know the other works, or, e.g. how c…

> Otherwise they are simply two completely different objects. That's where you're wrong. Both objects reflect the same mathematical operations in their structure. Even if those were inscrutable alien artifacts to you, even if you knew nothing about who constructed them, how or why? If you studied them, you would be able to see the similarities laid bare. Their inputs align, their outputs align. And if you dug deep en…

> That's where you're wrong. Both objects reflect the same mathematical operations in their structure.

This is missing the point by a country mile, I think.

All navel-gazing aside, understanding every bit of how an arithmometer works - hell, even being able to build one yourself - tells you absolutely nothing about how the Z80 chip in a TI-83 calculator actually works. Even if you take it down to individual components, there is zero real similarity between how a Leibniz wheel works and how a (full) adder circuit works. They are in fact fundamentally different machines that operate via fundamentally different principles.

The idea that similar functions must mean that they share significant similarities under the hood is senseless; you might as well argue that there are similarities to be found between a nuclear chain reaction and the flow of a river because they are both harnessed to spin turbines to generate electricity. It is a profoundly and quite frankly disturbingly incurious way for anyone who considers themself an "engineer" to approach the world.

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