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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#311

Post by JumpCrisscross »

michaelt wrote: post #192
awongh wrote: post #75

Now that Nvidia is the most valuable company, all this talk of actual AGI will be washed away by the huge amount of dollars driving the hype train. Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future. AGI being too close or too far away affects the value of these companies- too close and it'll seem too likely that the current leaders will win. Too far away and the level of sp…

> Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future. Is it? Or is it based on the idea a load of white collar workers will have their jobs automated, and companies will happily spend mid four figures for tech that replaces a worker earning mid five figures?

From what I've seen, the most-compelling thesis involves robotics. We're seeing evidence that LLMs tokenising physical inputs can operate robots better than previous methods. If that's pans out, the investment thesis is secured. No AGI needed.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#313

Post by plastic3169 »

EA-3167 wrote: post #236
goalieca wrote: post #79

I remember attending a lecture from a famous quantum computing researcher in 2003. He said that quantum computing is 15-20 years away and then he followed up by saying that if he told anyone it was further away then he wouldn't get funding!

It's an excellent time-frame that sounds imminent enough to draw interest (and funding), but is distant enough that you can delay the promised arrival a few times in the span of a career before retiring. Fusion research lives and dies on this premise, ignoring the hard problems that require fundamental breakthroughs in areas such as materials science, in favor of touting arbitrary benchmarks that don't indicate real…

> ”Full self driving" is another example; your car won't be doing this, but companies will brag about limited roll-outs of niche cases in dry, flat, places that are easy to navigate.

Not expecting my car to be self-driving anytime soon, but I have understood there is actual working robotaxi service in San Francisco which is not easy or flat? I think we can’t keep saying self driving cars will never happen when this kind of thing already exists.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#314

Post by ngruhn »

arthurofbabylon wrote: post #157

Agency. If one studied the humanities they’d know how incredible a proposal “agentic” AI is. In the natural world, agency is a consequence of death: by dying, the feedback loop closes in a powerful way. The notion of casual agency (I’m thinking of Jensen Huang’s generative > agentic > robotic insistence) is bonkers. Some things are not easily speedrunned. (I did listen to a sizable portion of this podcast while makin…

I don't agree but I did laugh

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#316

Post by Yizahi »

asah wrote: post #210
jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

Depends on the definition, I might take that bet because under some definitions were already here. Example: better than average human across many thinking tasks is done.

Calculator can do arithmetic better than a human. Does this mean we have so called AI for half a century now?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#317

Post by stock_toaster »

nextworddev wrote: post #302
jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

you can do that by shorting Oracle here

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#319

Post by OtherShrezzing »

louiereederson wrote: post #286
jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

short oracle

Is anyone _not_ short Oracle? The downside risk for them is that they’ll lose a deal worth 10x their annual revenues.

Their potential upside is that OpenAI (a company with lifetime revenues of ~$10bn) have committed to a $300bn lease, if Oracle manages build a fleet of datacenters faster than any company in history.

If you’re not short, you definitely shouldn’t be long. They’re the only one of the big tech companies I could reasonably see going to $0 if the bubble pops.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#320

Post by meindnoch »

People keep talking about AGI as if it's some mystical leap beyond human capability.

But let's be honest; software development at a modern startup is already the upper bound of applied intelligence. You're juggling shifting product specs, ambiguous user feedback, legacy code written by interns, and five competing JS frameworks, all while shipping on a Friday. Models can now do that. They can reason about asynchronous state, refactor a codebase across thousands of lines, and actually explain the difference between useEffect and useLayoutEffect without resorting to superstition.

If that's not general intelligence, what exactly are we waiting for - self-awareness?

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