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OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#311
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are moving towards gerontocracy - if pension funds will have large losses it’s very likely that young, working age people will be taxed extra heavily to keep the QOL of pensioners.

That would likely lead to a revolution: Millennials are 30-45 and they’re not in a good place; neither is Gen Z. We’re already seeing revolutions elsewhere — and it’s likely that trying to loot them further by generations who sold out the nation will simply lead to social collapse.

Have you ever battled an 87-year-old wearing mechanized battle armour? They're crazed, hopped on speed, eyes goggling in their sockets

A pack of 3 oldies burst through our perimeter one winter night... the screaming woke me up. Outside my tent the forest was lit up red by our laser blasts, trying desparately to take them out.

We thought that a revolution would be a good idea, but an upside-down population pyramid is a hell of a thing when you're on the bottom.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how Ponzi schemes work. Yahoo had a defacto _monopoly_ and the market had bad discovery leading to bad price information. There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. The real problem seemed to be that you can only put so much money into pets.com before it becomes stupid. You had more short term investment capital than could be _ef…

>There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. I don't get this. Of course there was. Specifically, March 10, 2000. To declare that something is not worth investing in doesn't imply that it's useless. (and actually, swing investors will argue something can be worth investing in even though it is in fact useless, e.g. web3 and most crypto).

I'd take some Amazon shares at the March 10, 2000 price (inflation adjusted). Merci.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a pg essay from 2010: https://www.paulgraham.com/yahoo.html >By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors…

That's not how Ponzi schemes work. Yahoo had a defacto _monopoly_ and the market had bad discovery leading to bad price information. There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. The real problem seemed to be that you can only put so much money into pets.com before it becomes stupid. You had more short term investment capital than could be _ef…

This time it's different?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#314
post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"this world where the whole economy is powered by compute" Is actually laughable.

Rewatching the video it strikes me that there is no talk of how the compute will be paid for. Altman is saying there is so much demand for compute but a lot of that is because he's setting the price for users to zero in spite of the service costing a lot to provide. I guess they figure once they have the users they'll monetize somehow but that bit's kind of iffy.

Is there? Is there actual organic demand for compute or is it all just a mirage created by the companies themselves?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it’s a bubble, then the long term value people are now counting on to retire with in the future is not actually real though, right? Like a bubble popping doesn’t destroy real value that used to exist, it exposes fictional value that never really existed.

It reallocates real value to the capitalist class. Most of us don't babysit stocks 8h a day and will be holding the bag.

What’s the mechanism you have in mind for that happening via bubble? They sell early before the crash? I’m curious if that actually happens, since the mass psychological nature of market crashes seems to make them difficult to predict reliably, even for people with a lot of resources.

Inflation on the other hand definitely does reallocate real value to whoever already owns a lot of assets, and I believe inflation often goes along with bubbles, since credit expansion is what usually kicks off the bubble in the first place.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#316

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> I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house interestingly, my wife and I have discussed this a lot too. We have 20 acres in SE Oklahoma that we got a really good deal on during the pandemic, the land is unplatted and the realtor didn't know there was water and power service already setup by the previous owner. We want to build a small cabin/house over the next couple years. It's like a…

> if everything goes to hell we can still go sit on our land in OK and watch the sunset..." No you can't.

The sweet nuclear summer glow from the back porch is an ambiance simply unequaled.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict. Paul Tudor Jones (one of the most successful investors of our time) is of the mindset that if anything we are about to see equity appreciation far in excess of what we have seen for decades. https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/paul-tudor-jones-hedge-fund-b... If that's the case, right when you're looking to rebalance your portfolio, you're going to be looking at a m…

my 401k is setup in pretty high risk ( according to Vanguard ) index funds. Now that i'm older and looking to retire in the next 10-12 years, the investments need to be re-balanced anyway. As for the brokerage account, it's just a vanguard sp500 index fund. I'm not super exposed to the mag7 but they're such a huge component of the overall sp500 that when the bubble pops it's going to affect the sp500 quite a bit. I w…

You are being mindful of some real risks and concerns.

That said, there's no reason to have to feel like you need to take a stab at it totally by yourself. Heck, that's what I'm doing in the day to day - putting together a few of these portfolios for people. There are certainly advisors and managers who know the academic side of this and can diversify away from concentration risks and such.

There are also many great tools in the relatively recent future that have opened up for common investors to diversify smartly. You can get pure trend following wrapped up in an ETF. You can get 100% equity 100% bond wrapped up in an etf at half of the size, so you can fit Gold and Trend in a portfolio with no hassle (both are low return but great from a diversification standpoint, so most retail investors want to lever up a bit to get back to the standard SP500 return/variance profile).

If you don't or can't find someone who can math it out for your individual case, it's also an option to just pull a few of the best proven individual ideas, such as "have some international diversification". ETFs are easy to grab here. Even 10-20% can pad out some of the US concentration and dollar exposure a bit. Smallcaps, like you said, are another way to shift away from the "size factor" dominated index weighted ETFs. The Nifty 50 bubble in the 60s was a major catastrophe, and history rhymes, so why not hedge a bit while still sticking to a proven investment framework? No financial advisor is going to look at an equity slice of 80% S&P, 10% international-ex-US, and 10% smallcap and say it's a stupid idea. Actually, they will probably say it's a smart improvement over 100% S&P.

When it comes to smallcaps, the caveat is that the Russel2000 is filled with fairly low quality companies. High debt, value traps, you've got it all. That's diversification, but probably not the type you are seeking. That's why smallcaps are a great target to add some factor based investing returns. This is another diversified source of return in and of itself (AQR as 150 billion under management here), but why not overlay some Quality and Value factors on top of the smallcaps? Now you have a sprinkle of factor investing edge in the portfolio alongside the smallcaps, while not drifting too far from the status quo since smallcaps are a small allocation. Not going to toss out specific investment ideas but there are ETFs/mutual funds for this! Just stick to low fees and a long track record. A question like "I want 10% in smallcaps, but I want a factor overlay for Quality and Value", is a question that would actually get money out of a good advisor by the way.

Here's a good, slightly wonky, lecture on some of the esoteric yet quite "in your face" risks within a complex dominated by passive and index weighted flows. It's not at all a misguided though to think there are some risks out there in the left tails. This was a lecture from 5 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-rJciYZmi0&t=1s

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict The gut feeling you're about to lose your life savings isn't worth it for a lot of people, when I had most of my money invested it was always in the back of my mind. I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house. All doubts and fear disappeared overnight, I'm for sure losing money compared to going all in on Nvidia or even btc, but I…

There has been no point in history where anyone lost their life savings investing in equities. Never touch your portfolio except to rebalance and only rebalance based on risk, not the market. When the market goes down, delete your banking apps and reset your passwords to random characters. Never sell

Quite conversely, if your equity portfolio is going up tens of thousands of percent yearly, that's when you should be sounding the alarm...

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has been no point in history where anyone lost their life savings investing in equities. Never touch your portfolio except to rebalance and only rebalance based on risk, not the market. When the market goes down, delete your banking apps and reset your passwords to random characters. Never sell

Quite conversely, if your equity portfolio is going up tens of thousands of percent yearly, that's when you should be sounding the alarm...

Unless you plan on withdrawing in the next few years, you should actually just do nothing

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#320
post #195

There is a beautiful scene from "The Wolf of Wall Street", in which Matthew McConaughey outshines Leonardo DiCaprio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4iBdIq0aaY I think it serves as a good commentary.

I finally got around to watching that a year or two ago. That scene is among several that are just remarkable bits of work, but somehow the whole film itself felt like a slog. I feel like that's the problem generally with late career Scorsese. The last of his films that felt consistently interesting and free of flab was, to me, Casino , though he got close for me with The Aviator and The Departed .

Yeah he loves hiding a 10/10 90 minute movie inside a 3 hour+ slog
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