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Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

joincolossus.com

311–320 of 377 posts

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds in awful lot like a cousin of the broken window fallacy. The fallacy being that when a careless kid breaks a window of a store, that we should celebrate because the glazier now has been paid to come out and do a job. Economic activity has increased by one measure! Should we go around breaking windows? Of course not.

It very much is a cousin of the broken window fallacy. Bastiat's original point of the Parable of the Broken Window could be summed up by the aphorism "not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts". It's a caution to society to avoid relying too much on metrics, and to realize that sometimes positive metrics obscure actual negative outcomes in society. It's very similar to…

> the "Two Income Trap" identified by Elizabeth Warren

This is addressed here: https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2019/05/06/the-two-inco...

childcare is not usually a lifelong cost, so the advantage of working anyway is to develop a career that persists after children no longer need a full-time parent. And incomes usually go up over the course of a career, so if the income matches those costs when the parent goes to work, that is likely to change.

> the net real result is that the kids are raised by someone other than their parents

this is the genuine argument for staying home, but to counterpoint that, it still traps the homemaker with less work experience as a result, meaning they are potentially worse off in case of a divorce, though maybe that's an extension of the "welfare" argument i.e. divorce settlements.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, brands literally test creatives all the time.

And yet they'll also spend literally millions writing just the company name 100 times around the periphery of a sports field. That's not creative, that's just repetition. On the graph of spend over the spectrum between that to a genuinely creative live-action advert that is actually memorable for being real (maybe the guy doing the splits between two Volvo™ lorries?) there is a lot of area representing of dross that…

> And yet they'll also spend literally millions writing just the company name 100 times around the periphery of a sports field. That's not creative, that's just repetition.

Read up on marketing mix modelling and lift testing.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#313

I think the interesting idea with “AI” is that it seems to significantly reduce barriers to entry in many domains. I haven’t seen a company convincingly demonstrate that this affects them at all. Lots of fluff but nothing compelling. But I have seen many examples by individuals, including myself. For years I’ve loved poking at video game dev for fun. The main problem has always been art assets. I’m terrible at art an…

Yeah, that's how I feel about it as well. For a large chunk of my life, I would start a personal project, get stuck on some annoying detail (e.g. the server gives some arcane error), get annoyed, and abandoned the project. I'm not being paid for this, and for unpaid work I have a pretty finite amount of patience. With ChatGPT, a lot of the time I can simply copypaste the error and get it to give me ideas on paths for…

> For a large chunk of my life, I would start a personal project, get stuck on some annoying detail ...

I am the same way. I did Computer Science because it was a combination of philosophy and meta thinking. Then when I got out, it was mainly just low level errors, dependencies, and language nuance.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I enjoy using AI generated art for my presentations.

I chuckled seeing it in the first presentation of the conference. By the end of the conference, it was numbingly banal.

Well, you still have to come up with something interesting.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#315
Making an industrial fortune is relative. It might just mean that jumping on the AI hype helps you preserve your fortune or position in the industry, while everyone else who misses the hype goes out of business.

I remember back in 2004, my first project was testing a teleconferencing system. We set up a huge screen with cameras at one of our subsidiaries and another at the HQ, and I had a phone on my desk with a built-in camera and screen. Did the company roll out the system? No, it didn’t. It was just too expensive. Did they make a fortune from that experience? No, they didn’t. But I’m pretty sure all companies in the knowledge industry that didn’t enable video calls and screen sharing for their employees went out of business years ago...

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not something that can be solved just by throwing more AI computation at it though. I said "With the help of AI" no "Solved by AI" The model is complex, and currently takes time on super computers to crunch through the numbers to give us an approximation, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to be fully modelled, or that we won't find a better way of approximating things where the long range forecasts are mo…

Chaos theory says "nope". It's never going to be fully modelled, straight up.

It's only impossibile until it's not

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet they'll also spend literally millions writing just the company name 100 times around the periphery of a sports field. That's not creative, that's just repetition. On the graph of spend over the spectrum between that to a genuinely creative live-action advert that is actually memorable for being real (maybe the guy doing the splits between two Volvo™ lorries?) there is a lot of area representing of dross that…

> And yet they'll also spend literally millions writing just the company name 100 times around the periphery of a sports field. That's not creative, that's just repetition. Read up on marketing mix modelling and lift testing.

None of that precludes replacing huge swathes of advertising content with generated content, though? I'm not sure I understand the relevance.

In fact, being able to produce unlimited numbers and variations and combinations of adverts and have them compete against each other in the real world and be scored on tiny deltas in metrics becomes much more possible if you can automate basically the whole process. But it's a multimillion spend if you have to recruit actual actors and actual film crews and actual food photographers or drone pilots and car drivers and location scouts and so on to film and edit just a handful of variants let alone thousands.

Maybe there will always be a creamy top layer of increasingly-expensive artisanal handmade advertising but I predict we will end up with a huge sloppy middle ground of generated advertising that is just there to flash bright colours, jingles, movement and brand names into your brain.

I'm not saying it will be good advertising, very much the opposite (not that I think most much non-AI advertising is "good", it's mostly repetitive crap) but I think it will be very cost effective.

Maybe it won't be as effective as "real" ads but it'll be a hell of a lot cheaper and getting 80% of the bang for 5% of the buck means you can do a lot more of it in more channels (or pocket the difference). Every penny you save is a penny you can use to bid for the better slots.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chaos theory says "nope". It's never going to be fully modelled, straight up.

It's only impossibile until it's not

Chaos theory. Look. It. Up.

Avalanche effect COMPLETELY PREVENTS certain things from being predictable.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#319
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI concentrates economic activity and leads to more natural monopolies (extremely likely), yeah, the lower level activity becomes more efficient but the macro economy becomes less efficient due to lower competition. Software has basically done the same thing, where we do things faster and the fastest thing that happens is accumulation of power and a lower overall quality of life for everyone due to that.

How does enabling every person on earth to create Hollywood-quality films (for better or worse) result in more natural monopolies?

Once supply becomes huge, nothing stands out unless it's extraordinary or most likely, well promoted.

Things start becoming found through aggregators. Google, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok.

Do those names ring any bells?

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#320
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that's how I feel about it as well. For a large chunk of my life, I would start a personal project, get stuck on some annoying detail (e.g. the server gives some arcane error), get annoyed, and abandoned the project. I'm not being paid for this, and for unpaid work I have a pretty finite amount of patience. With ChatGPT, a lot of the time I can simply copypaste the error and get it to give me ideas on paths for…

> For a large chunk of my life, I would start a personal project, get stuck on some annoying detail ... I am the same way. I did Computer Science because it was a combination of philosophy and meta thinking. Then when I got out, it was mainly just low level errors, dependencies, and language nuance.

Yeah exactly. I did CS because I love math and computability theory and logic and distributed computation, and I will have an interesting enough idea I want to play with, but I'll get stuck on some bullshit with Kubernetes or systemd or Zookeeper or firewalls or something that's decidedly not an interesting problem for me, but something necessary that I need to actually do my idea.

Being able to get ChatGPT to generate basic scaffold stuff, or look at errors, help me resolve dependencies, or even just bounce ideas off of, really helps me maintain progress.

You could argue that I'm not learning as much than if I fought through it, and that's probably true, but I am absolutely learning more than I would have if I had just quit the project like I usually did.

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