Live data from Hacker News

Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

311–319 of 319 posts

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But everyone should be able to own a home? No. Do you seriously want to turn this discussion into lower-class rental / apartment discussion? Okay, fine. Lets go there. https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-yea... Average rent in 1980 was $243/month. Average rent in 2025 is $1397/month. For those who cannot afford a home, life has gotten worse. For those who _can_ afford a home, their life has got…

Okay, so what do you propose? Rent control? That is going to decrease supply. Tariffs to encourage manufacturing in America? That’s just going to make things less affordable. But, rural America consistently votes for politicians and people who are trying to get rid of services they need the most. They are getting exactly what they are voting for and cheering right now. They are actively opposed to programs that would…

first thought is to repeat whats worked in the past - have the government comfiscate all the rental land, and charge the renters 20 bucks or so to take the deed.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#312
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've had a long history of technological improvements being widespread distributed to the people. There's not a particularly bleak reason to believe the latest AI automation won't be too. Look around your desk or your house and just count all the effort-saving devices that have made their way down to you. Look at the price of TVs cratering. Tech that can be recreated easily spreads far and wide. AI can too. It's dro…

I'm struggling to think of any technological advancement in the past 20 years that's saved me time. The only real change has been a shift to WFH, but that happened independently of technological change in that era. Even things like screen sharing and remote desktop were possible before that time. 25 years ago, sure: online shopping/banking, email and chat -- these are all things my Blackberry or Nokia could handle. T…

You sayin you were capable of ordering any product on earth from your couch and having it delivered within 2 days? Or building an interactive video (modern website) accessible anywhere on earth instantly (all used just to display people's resume and contact details lol)? Or navigate anywhere within minutes from the optimal pathway, without thinking about it? Or research and answer any question you have about anything in the world within a minute? Or hold daily conversations with all your friends in group chats despite vast geographical gaps? Or play games with them in - again - interactive cinematic masterpiece movies accessible anywhere on the planet?

So much time was saved you don't even realize it because most of the above was just practically impossible to do before - and frankly beyond the scope of what any human actually needs. But the scope crept anyway and now they're all normal parts of modern life taken for granted. As for where that time went - capabilities exploded, but any spare time also got eaten by tighter work hours from a more competitive market. That's capitalism for ya baybeeeee

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive. The wealth gap was growing since 1980. Is the median person better today when the median person cannot afford a college education or a house? Both of those were easily afforded in the 80s. Also remember: the average job didn't require a college education back then either. College has become a gatekeeper due to its rising costs…

> Both of those were easily afforded in the 80s. That's due to the post-war boom. The book Capital in the 21st Century goes over this, that the period between 1950 - 2000 was an anomaly for the US that cannot be replicated, yet people bring up this stat as if it were normal.

1980 was during the stagflation era and a major Middle East crisis with nearly 20% interest rates.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#315

Most AI automation would automate useless bureucratic (public and private) bullshit jobs, not real productivity.

If you're able to define a clear metric to objectively differentiate between "bullshit jobs" and "real productivity", you'll probably nab a Nobel in Economics.

If people could speak truth to power and bosses and didn't just suck anything up for the paycheck, we wouldn't need "a clear metric to objectively differentiate between bullshit jobs and real productivity".

Our intuitive understanding of bullshit jobs would be enough.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My last two roles have involved automating detection of cancers and other disease in biopsies (eliminating pathologists’ jobs in hospitals), and now automating invoice payment and statement settlement in the global freight sector (eliminating accountants’/operators’ jobs in these companies). I’m honestly very excited about this type of work. The benefits to society - better healthcare for less money, humans with thei…

> humans with their beautiful, creative brains not spending 40 hours a week looking at documents unnecessarily What should they be doing once all the meaningful jobs are automated away? > The flipside of this progress is, of course, that we have to overthrow the extractive capitalist system we have in place. > I think the only thing that will actually push people to overthrow it is exactly the type of work I’m doing.…

> What should they be doing once all the meaningful jobs are automated away?

My point is that looking at patient's biopsy slides or invoices, for 40-80 hours a week, to find known cancers/viruses, or to make sure numbers match up with statements, is not meaningful work. In fact, I'd argue that any work that can be automated without performance degradation isn't meaningful work for humans.

For the case of pathologists, this frees them up to look more carefully at cases where patients are experiencing symptoms and the cause can't be automatically. That means better patient care for both common and exceptional cases. And, perhaps, when put into use globally, it frees some pathologists up to take other roles in medical or scientific fields, doing something that isn't easily automated.

For accountants, it frees them up to only look at cases where things mismatch, or, well... science, teaching, art, local farming, carpentry, really anything that isn't staring at invoices and statements 40 hours a week. It seems particularly silly to me that anyone would argue "comparing numbers on documents" is "meaningful work."

A pretty popular quote by Stephen Jay Gould: "I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops." I'd assert that many of our world's pathologists and accountants are doing the equivalent of living and dying in those cotton fields and sweatshops, if they're doing work that could be automated.

> Stripping people of their livelihoods is one way to encourage them to overthrow the system, yes. Make no mistake though: the revolution will not be kind to you.

Chill, dude. It's not like I'm making millions building these things. It's all just SaaS software, a sector where profit margins generally always trend downwards as the market for the product matures. Put another way, these companies are nowhere near as profitable as companies that extract our psychological profiles, target content and ads to make us feel miserable, and then use that to sell us stuff (Meta, Google, et al). I could easily go to Meta and make twice what I do now.

Plus, I contribute time and labor to organizations like the DSA, JVP, and local nonprofits, volunteer at my local food bank and for other local organizations, choose to shop at local co-ops and farmer's markets, and more to build the type of economy that can support actual meaningful, not-easily-automated work for humans to do.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to balance this time savings with all the times the LLM is just making shit up. I can't the number of times I ask "how do I do X?", and says "call function Y" or "Use command line argument Z". Turns out Y doesn't exist and CLI doesn't take argument "Z". The frustration from that lying is immense. I'd rather take a little longer on some tasks and never deal with this lying.

I see what you mean. The way I approach this is that I think of it as a very (very, very) elaborate auto-complete. Something that takes some text, and continues with the most likely continuation. Which is what it basically is, right? But that means that whatever rather impressive internal representation of knowledge it has encoded, that knowledge itself can’t be trusted on a “factual” basis. This is where you have st…

[deleted]

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to balance this time savings with all the times the LLM is just making shit up. I can't the number of times I ask "how do I do X?", and says "call function Y" or "Use command line argument Z". Turns out Y doesn't exist and CLI doesn't take argument "Z". The frustration from that lying is immense. I'd rather take a little longer on some tasks and never deal with this lying.

I see what you mean. The way I approach this is that I think of it as a very (very, very) elaborate auto-complete. Something that takes some text, and continues with the most likely continuation. Which is what it basically is, right? But that means that whatever rather impressive internal representation of knowledge it has encoded, that knowledge itself can’t be trusted on a “factual” basis. This is where you have st…

If I waste 5-7 minutes multiple times every day, that quickly adds up. It's easy to waste an hour or more fiddle farting with these unreliable tools. It's easier to just do it myself.
Post reply on HN