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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

311–320 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or people who actually study these things How do you define "actually study" here, and what makes you think the author didn't study the topic at all? Its totally fine if you disagree with the author's view or have additional information that they missed or didn't consider. Writing it off as coming from someone who didn't "actually study" the topic is unnecessarily dismissive.

The fact that US gdp and population has grown while energy inputs have stayed flat is an important measure of both the energy efficiency of an economy and the mix of sources of gdp. "Energy intensity" is a measure of PPP gdp per capita per kg of oil. If you want to grow your economy then you either improve energy intensity (get more gdp for the same or less energy) or find new energy sources. China wants to reduce th…

> The US energy intensity has halved since the 1980s - less oil and more IT.

Part of their argument, and arguably also quite apparent fact, is that this is not efficiency improvement - it's just outsourcing the energy-intensive parts of the process abroad. This makes treating energy intensity as a measurement of efficiency just an accounting trick.

It's the same kind of trick as e.g. Germany shutting down its clean power plants, covering the energy deficit by buying electricity produced in coal plants abroad, and then claiming, "look ma, no emissions, no nuclear, so green".

Supply and demand goes both ways. You don't get to outsource the important parts and then claim they don't count because you're just buying - it's not like manufacturing or electricity production are natural phenomena you're just tapping into. The buying is what makes them exist, whether or not it's within or outside your borders.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#312

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc. Maybe economists have it wrong.

> economists have been giving advice to policymakers

Exactly advice.

Which is then promptly ignored because the rich are a uber-powerful voting bloc.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc. Maybe economists have it wrong.

> economists have been giving advice to policymakers Exactly advice. Which is then promptly ignored because the rich are a uber-powerful voting bloc.

voters don't run the fed (or ecb). it's specifically the institution of policymakers that is the most insulated from voters.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#314
post #148
post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

Some serious macroeconomists think fiat money was a bad idea on balance.

Can you share some links?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#315

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

>there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Not really. Most developed economies are basically 70% Baumol's cost disease[1]. The 20% of the American GDP that goes to healthcare, half of the military budget that goes into salaries, public services, the police isn't billed on productivity. Those are non-tradeable services whose compensation inflates with growth in the productivity gaining sectors of the economy. T…

Not to shill too hard but was recently in Northern china for a month, mixture of Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities (including cities in major decline [1]).

A lot of folks say China is decades in the future, this is not my belief. They are ahead in some major areas for sure but in other areas they are still a developing nation. China just does it's own thing and doesn't concern itself too much with the whims and concerns of the west.

One thing was abundantly clear however, China does not suffer from financially engineered Baumols disease. It was incredibly refreshing to spend time in a "functioning" society. Housing abundance, cheap EVs / public transport, great services, lively small businesses etc (no abandoned high streets).

If I were to guess this is probably because productivity growth so far has been able to keep up with the expansion of money supply. Where as the west tried to print itself out of structural deflation with a decade of ZIRP/QE. How do you avoid deflation in an aging society? Is it even avoidable? I guess we'll find out [2].

1. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3133397/c...

2. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-xi-debt-economic-plan-...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specifically, krugman believes that inflation is required to confuse laborers to stay in their jobs and not take pay cuts (sorry, can't find ref), which creates labor stability. so yes, it is about economists. interest rate policy is crafted around this principle and designed to screw the have nots (it is not only krugman, it is encoded in the fed's dual mandate). since every country has a central bank with a similar…

Citation: https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0...

He is explaining a market dynamic, not prescribing a political policy. He's correct: with zero inflation, normal market dynamics means that some jobs become less valuable over time, and others become more valuable. This is natural progress caused by all kinds of factors like scientific advancements. In such an environment, it is very difficult for employers of the now antiquated jobs to cut wages. So they simply cut jobs instead, leading to higher unemployment. Inflation mitigates this effect by effectively giving workers of antiquated jobs pay cuts (in real terms) rather than firing them. What politicians do with this knowledge is a policy choice. You are shooting the messenger.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#318
post #28

> Back the dollar by gold [...] The second will prevent a lot of the scams. Oh boy... Bitcoin in many ways is idealized gold (unlike the real one, its supply is actually limited), yet there is no shortage of scams around it. On the contrary, a gold standard would remove one of the most essential tools modern governments have: That of monetary policy. That sounds like a good idea if and only if there's an extreme shor…

Monetary policy is a form of central planning. Central planning suffers from several issues, primarily due to insufficient ability to model the economy in a way that can reliably make valid predictions, but also due to being a single point of failure due to either incompetence or capture. Speculation bubbles seem to be the main cause of economic collapses prior to centralized currency. Could we perhaps address that i…

And the gold standard isn’t? As someone said elsewhere - a working knowledge of economic history is crucial to be a part of this discussion.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#319

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> or people who actually study these things How do you define "actually study" here, and what makes you think the author didn't study the topic at all? Its totally fine if you disagree with the author's view or have additional information that they missed or didn't consider. Writing it off as coming from someone who didn't "actually study" the topic is unnecessarily dismissive.

> what makes you think the author didn't study the topic at all

Because this is George Hotz who is arrogant and enamoured by his own intelligence.

He famously derided Twitter's engineering team as being incompetent and that he could easily rewrite it. He lasted at Twitter for a month, delivered nothing and then resigned.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#320

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

Uh oh, go read Taleb if you want to know about economists. They are also behind some of the chaos we have today.
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