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S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

timkellogg.me

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Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#311
post #53

If chain of thought acts as a scratch buffer by providing the model more temporary "layers" to process the text, I wonder if making this buffer a separate context with its own separate FNN and attention would make sense; in essence, there's a macroprocess of "reasoning" that takes unbounded time to complete, and then there's a microprocess of describing this incomprehensible stream of embedding vectors in natural lan…

I've had an idea since I was a kid which I can share. I was contemplating AI and consciousness generally, probably around the time I read "The Minds I". I reflected on the pop-psychology idea of consciousness and subconsciousness. I thought of each as an independent stream of tokens, like stream of consciousness poetry. But along the stream there were joining points between these two streams, points where the conscio…

Have you read Jaynes' "The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind"?

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in that a distilled model of an LLM is like a JPEG of a photo That's an interesting analogy, because I've always thought of the hidden states (and weights and biases) of an LLMs as a compressed version of the training data.

Well, JPEG can be thought of as an compression of the natural world of whose photograph was taken

And we can answer the question why quantization works with a lossy format, since quantization just drops accuracy for space but still gives us a good enough output, just like a lossy jpeg.

Reiterating again, we can lose a lot of data (have incomplete data) and have a perfectly visible jpeg (or MP3, same thing).

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#313
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that just scale? Even small LLMs have more parts than any car. LLMs are more analogous to economics, psychology, politics -- it is possible there's a core science with explicability, but the systems are so complex that even defining the question is hard.

You can make a bigger ICE engine (like a container ship engine) and still understand how the whole thing works. Maybe there’s more parts moving but it still has the structure of an ICE engine. With neural networks big or small, we got no clue what’s going on. You can observe the whole system, from the weights and biases, to the activations, gradients, etc and still get nothing. On the other hand, one of the reasons w…

One way I've heard it summarized: Computer Science as a field is used to things being like physics or chemistry, but we've suddenly encountered something that behaves more like biology.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If what you say is true, and distilling LLMs is easy and cheap, and pushing the SOTA without a better model to rely on is dang hard and expensive, then that means the economics of LLM development might not be attractive to investors - spending billions to have your competitors come out with products that are 99% as good, and cost them pennies to train, does not sound like a good business strategy.

What I still don’t understand is how one slurps out an entire model (closed source) though. Does the deepseek paper actually say what model it’s trained off of, or do they claim the entire thing is from scratch?

AFAIK DeepSeek have not publicly acknowledged training their model on OpenAI output - the OpenAI people have alleged that they did.

At any rate, I don't think distillation involves 'slurping out' the whole model, as I understand it, it means providing the other model's output as training data input to create your new model. Maybe analogous to an expert teaching a novice how to do something by providing carefully selected examples, without having to expose the novice to all the blind alleys the expert went down to achieve mastery.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#315
post #308
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> _fundamentally_ don’t understand how deep learning systems works. It's like saying we don't understand how quantum chromodynamics works. Very few people do, and it's the kind of knowledge not easily distilled for the masses in an easily digestible in a popsci way. Look into how older CNNs work -- we have very good visual/accesible/popsci materials on how they work. I'm sure we'll have that for LLM but it's not wort…

As a person who has trained a number of computer vision deep networks, I can tell you that we have some cool-looking visualizations on how lower layers work but no idea how later layers work. The intuition is built over training numerous networks and trying different hyperparameters, data shuffling, activations, etc. it’s absolutely brutal over here. If the theory was there, people like Karpathy who have great teache…

It may be as simple as this:

https://youtube.com/shorts/7GrecDNcfMc

Many many layers of that. It’s not a profound mechanism. We can understand how that works, but we’re dumbfounded how such a small mechanism is responsible for all this stuff going on inside a brain.

I don’t think we don’t understand, it’s a level beyond that. We can’t fathom the implications, that it could be that simple, just scaled up.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#316
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you and I am scared. My problem is: if most people can't work, who is going to pay for the product/services created with IA? I get a lot of "IA will allow us to create SaaS in a weekend" and "IA will take engineers jobs", which I think they both may be true. But a lot of SaaS surive because engineers pay for them -- if engineer don't exist anymore, a lot of SaaS won't either. If you eat your potential cu…

> My problem is: if most people can't work, who is going to pay for the product/services created with IA? A lot of those will probably go under, too. I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening. The only people our society and economy really values are the elite with ownership and control, and the people who get to eat and have comfort are those who provide things that are directly or indirectly valuable to t…

> The only people our society and economy really values are the elite with ownership and control

This isn’t true. The biggest companies are all rich because they cater to the massive US middle class. That’s where the big money is at.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#317
post #277

I'm strictly speaking never going to think of model distillation as "stealing." It goes against the spirit of scientific research, and besides every tech company has lost my permission to define what I think of as theft forever

At most it would be illicit copying.

Though it's poetic justice that OpenAI is complaining about someone else playing fast and loose with copyright rules.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#318
post #313
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can make a bigger ICE engine (like a container ship engine) and still understand how the whole thing works. Maybe there’s more parts moving but it still has the structure of an ICE engine. With neural networks big or small, we got no clue what’s going on. You can observe the whole system, from the weights and biases, to the activations, gradients, etc and still get nothing. On the other hand, one of the reasons w…

One way I've heard it summarized: Computer Science as a field is used to things being like physics or chemistry, but we've suddenly encountered something that behaves more like biology.

[flagged]

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#319
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the analogy of compression, in that a distilled model of an LLM is like a JPEG of a photo. Pretty good, maybe very good, but still lossy. The question I hear you raising seems to be along the lines of, can we use a new compression method to get better resolution (reproducibility of the original) in a much smaller size.

> in that a distilled model of an LLM is like a JPEG of a photo That's an interesting analogy, because I've always thought of the hidden states (and weights and biases) of an LLMs as a compressed version of the training data.

And what is compression but finding the minimum amount of information required to reproduce a phenomena? I.e. discovering natural laws.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels like we're back in 1900 when anyone's clever idea (and implementation) can give huge performance improvements, such as Ford's assembly line and Taylor's scientific management of optimizing shovel sizes for coal.

yes, it also feels like we are going to lose our just-in-time global shipments of anything to anywhere any day now. It will soon feel like 1900 in other ways.

Hope we don't get 1914 again, too.
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