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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

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Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#311

Post by AngryData »

Enginerrrd wrote: post #288
therealpygon wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should realize experience in a tangentially related field and there being a lab somewhere in the area is not the same as insight and evidence. That’s like saying that if a new flu came out of Atlanta, the fact the CDC is there proves it came from a lab, and must be true because someone’s janitor cousin who worked there one summer said it was true. “Low confidence” means that there is a lack of evidence and the st…

There's a paper from 2014 that tried to estimate the annual chance of a pandemic from a lab leak. They estimated it at 2%. I assumed they overestimated a bit for effect and put it at around 1%. Pandemics have historically happened somewhere around ever 100 years. What's that annual probability? 1%. So if you knew NOTHING else, from a bayesian standpoint, if you have to differentiate a once in a 100 year spillover or…

To me it barely moves the needle, specifically because as you have said we have found other remarkably similar viruses in the past.

We have known about coronaviruses for almost 100 years, and we have been studying them due to their dangers for atleast 60 years, and it has likely existed since before humans could be called human. And it has been shown to be a highly virulent numerous times in many different forms. No matter how low the chances of winning the lottery, when literally billions of people are playing it daily, it is only of matter of when, not if, it turns into something more dangerous.

Now none of that comes anywhere near proving anything, but the fact that we have had multiple coronavirus infections in the past, many of which have come dangerously close to pandemic level infections, makes a natural occurrence seem the most likely source.

On top of all that, even if it did come from a lab, why does that matter? A handful of extra lottery tickets were sold and someone won from that pool. This isn't some bioweapon modified virus purposefully bred from a farm of human subjects, you would never be able to get away with such a program in a large publicly known virology lab and we aren't knowledgeable enough in viral genetics to make something like that without testing it on farms of people. There are no markers indicating engineering it in any way that we are actually capable of. And worst case it is something a mere handful of unguided generations away from a sample that was pulled from the public already and the lab got "lucky" with a random mutation on a petri dish they were studying.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#312

Post by westcort »

drewbug01 wrote: post #17

> The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete. I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. --- One thing that is, however, quite certain: there are very real political reasons to favor one theory or another. For example, Sen. Tom Cotton is quoted as…

I have previously shared this little known, but factual, event on Hacker News. It is simply a Wikipedia article--the 1977 Russian Flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu). This is not my statement, note this well dang, and read or argue with the editors of Wikipedia if you want (not me), but the following statement stands firm:

"Genetic analysis and several unusual characteristics of the 1977 Russian flu have prompted many researchers to say that the virus was released to the public through a laboratory accident, or resulted from a live-vaccine trial escape"

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#313

Post by hindsightbias »

Enginerrrd wrote: post #288
therealpygon wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should realize experience in a tangentially related field and there being a lab somewhere in the area is not the same as insight and evidence. That’s like saying that if a new flu came out of Atlanta, the fact the CDC is there proves it came from a lab, and must be true because someone’s janitor cousin who worked there one summer said it was true. “Low confidence” means that there is a lack of evidence and the st…

There's a paper from 2014 that tried to estimate the annual chance of a pandemic from a lab leak. They estimated it at 2%. I assumed they overestimated a bit for effect and put it at around 1%. Pandemics have historically happened somewhere around ever 100 years. What's that annual probability? 1%. So if you knew NOTHING else, from a bayesian standpoint, if you have to differentiate a once in a 100 year spillover or…

Not that it will fit a western centric ideology but there is zero mystery with people going into hospitals in Nov. It would be surprising if it weren’t so.

It’s flu season and Chinese don’t go zoom their Dr, they go and check into the hospital.

In other countries, it would be considered sociopathy to go to work with a flu, but we’re all Real Americans so anything different means… conspiracy.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#314

Post by hansvm »

pstuart wrote: post #250
hansvm wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

Clarifying:

Many of the pardoned individuals have video evidence of assaulting police with weapons and claim to be part of organizations diametrically opposed to BLM, Antifa, and the FBI. Are they:

1. Lying, masquerading as Trump supporters in deep cover for many years (secretly a part of the organizations you're blaming, despite playing part in an attempted coup that would have opposed those organizations and despite no evidence of such multi-year subterfuge)

2. Framed (mind you, AI is wishy-washy for video even now, and it wasn't good enough then)

3. Innocent for some other reason despite their violent actions

There aren't a lot of options that make tasing and trampling cops while heavily armed and overrunning the White House look good. Even republican congressmen, whose careers partially depend on not pissing off Trump, are happy to publicly decry those pardons, no matter how they feel about the rest of the executive orders. Every Trump supporter I've talked to so far (except, perhaps, you) has agreed that was a step too far (though they're all still optimistic about the presidency overall).

What, exactly, about those pardons was appropriate? If I stormed your house with guns and trampled the police blocking my way, would that make me an American hero for defending the right to free speech?

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#315

Post by [deleted] »

eightysixfour wrote: post #214
florbo wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, it was a given. We don't know. I don't know. I do enjoy postulating for this particular incident, though.

> Sorry, it was a given. No sorry necessary. I just think it is interesting how hard it is to not have an opinion about something beyond "I don't know." We all seem to feel more comfortable making an assumption and picking an answer, even when it won't change our behavior and not picking has no cost.

[deleted]

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#316

Post by defrost »

vcdimension wrote: post #308

rootclaim gave the lab leak theory an 87% probability using Bayesian analysis back in 2020: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

Which means what?

"Rootclaim" then bet $100,000 on being able to back that claim in a independant structured 18 hour long debate of their own devising .. and lost the $100,000.

The Rootclaim assessment was worthless.

See: https://protagonist-science.medium.com/lableak-truther-loses...

Or watch the entire 18 hour debate in which that claim was shredded.

Given your user profile about: it's easy to see why you might give weight to Saar Wilf's Rootclaim project .. championing this particular result while ignoring its full history seems professionally questionable.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#317

Post by davesque »

lolinder wrote: post #306

Can someone help me understand why a lab leak looks worse for China than zoonotic spillover? Why would Senator Cotton need it to be a lab leak to give him more leverage? From what I understand, one theory is that China has for decades tolerated unsanitary wet markets that allowed dangerous diseases to evolve, get stronger, and eventually transmit to human hosts. They'd been warned about this over and over again and h…

That's one way to look at it. Another is that a lab leak makes the government seem much more culpable, since they would presumably have more direct control over the activities of government funded scientists. In any case, I think world governments have been reluctant to endorse theories that place more blame on the Chinese government for fear of forcing them into a defensive posture and risking a larger confrontation. But there are also those who desire such a confrontation. That makes it hard to trust the motives that any given party might have for promoting one theory or another.

At the end of the day, all that any sane person should care about is preventing another similar pandemic.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#318

Post by AngryData »

mrcsharp wrote: post #289
philjohn wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were they? Or were those who claimed it was the only possible answer, without the evidence to back that up?

That's not a good enough reason to censor.

99% of the time there isn't a good reason to censor things, that doesn't stop it from happening constantly though. Especially in China where censorship of anything with bad publicity for the country or government or people is the default stance.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#319

Post by Hikikomori »

morkalork wrote: post #44
mmustapic wrote: post #16

So there’s a new president and the main intelligence agency changes its position radically in alignment with the new government. Why should we be confident in any other claim they made in the past?

Considering what is known about that agency's activities under Reagan, I think everyone lost confidence about any claims they made before I was even born.

Essentially goes back to the start, bunch of rich nepo kids playing spy. See Sidney Gottlieb for a fun story.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#320

Post by jdietrich »

If we actually care about public health, we should act as if both the lab leak and zoonosis theories are correct. We should take laboratory biosecurity, wet markets, the bush meat trade and intensive livestock management equally seriously as threats. We should do this because we have no idea where the next pandemic - and there will be a next pandemic - will come from.

It seems fairly clear to me that a lot of people are much more concerned about finding someone to blame for the last pandemic than about preparing for or preventing the next pandemic.

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