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China is the manufacturing superpower

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Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#311

Post by wakawaka28 »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #308
wakawaka28 wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But that measure has been rolled back over the years, and now only applies in particular industries. I would like to know where you saw this. Not to be a jerk but I've never heard this and I'm more informed than most. >Tesla 100% owns its operations in China, as do more and more foreign companies. Tesla is the first one to have that arrangement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Shanghai What about this? htt…

> I would like to know where you saw this. Not to be a jerk but I've never heard this and I'm more informed than most. You just mentioned an example yourself: automobiles. This isn't specialized knowledge. You can read about China's JV policy, and how the list of affected industries has shrunk over time. > They can mandate Tesla to export 100% of the cars at any time if they feel it threatens the local industry. Anyo…

>You can read about China's JV policy, and how the list of affected industries has shrunk over time.

Yes but I don't read Chinese. Like I said I have read about this stuff and never found another example besides Tesla. You said something about "particular industries" which implies there must be far more examples of exceptions to the JV rule. I haven't been able to find them. I thought you might have a good source since you're the one claiming that there are more exceptions.

>Anyone could theoretically do anything in the future. They haven't. In fact, they've been extremely welcoming to Tesla.

They have a history of welcoming outside companies until they get a domestic equivalent. For example this has happened to tech companies.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#312

Post by typ »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #272
wakawaka28 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a high amount of protectionism. You can't sell in China without approval, and no foreign-controlled business is granted access. You have to set up a minimum 51% Chinese-owned subsidiary and possibly jump through other hoops to get access. This along with all the outsourcing has been used to steal IP and put foreign competitors out of business.

Many of the claims you're making here are outdated, or just outright false. For example, the 51% requirement does not apply in most industries any more. It was a transitional measure as China opened up its economy to foreign investment, to prevent foreign companies from instantly taking over or outcompeting every Chinese company. But that measure has been rolled back over the years, and now only applies in particular…

The relaxation of the limit was announced in mid-2019 after Trump's trade war started.

https://fundselectorasia.com/china-officially-ends-foreign-o...

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#313

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

wakawaka28 wrote: post #311
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would like to know where you saw this. Not to be a jerk but I've never heard this and I'm more informed than most. You just mentioned an example yourself: automobiles. This isn't specialized knowledge. You can read about China's JV policy, and how the list of affected industries has shrunk over time. > They can mandate Tesla to export 100% of the cars at any time if they feel it threatens the local industry. Anyo…

>You can read about China's JV policy, and how the list of affected industries has shrunk over time. Yes but I don't read Chinese. Like I said I have read about this stuff and never found another example besides Tesla. You said something about "particular industries" which implies there must be far more examples of exceptions to the JV rule. I haven't been able to find them. I thought you might have a good source sin…

The key term here is the "negative list," which defines which sectors have restrictions on foreign investment.[0] The negative list has been shrinking over time.

I don't know the details of each company, but I think many major US corporations, including Apple, Walmart and Nike, have wholly owned subsidiaries in China.

> They have a history of welcoming outside companies until they get a domestic equivalent.

I don't know if any example of this, though I know this is something Noah Smith always claims (and I have a dim view on his knowledge of China). The closest thing to this is what happened to Google and Facebook, but they were really just blocked because the government wanted them to censor information, and they apparently weren't playing ball. But in terms of the Chinese government chasing a foreign company out just because there's a Chinese equivalent, I've never actually heard of a specific example.

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_list_of_foreign_inves...

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#314

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

typ wrote: post #312
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the claims you're making here are outdated, or just outright false. For example, the 51% requirement does not apply in most industries any more. It was a transitional measure as China opened up its economy to foreign investment, to prevent foreign companies from instantly taking over or outcompeting every Chinese company. But that measure has been rolled back over the years, and now only applies in particular…

The relaxation of the limit was announced in mid-2019 after Trump's trade war started. https://fundselectorasia.com/china-officially-ends-foreign-o...

There have been successive relaxations of the restrictions over the years, going back more than 30 years.

China's economy used to be completely closed to foreign investment. They didn't open up overnight. It's been a long, gradual process. The JV requirements were meant to prevent foreign firms from instantly wiping out every Chinese company in every sector. But as the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and competitive, the government worries less and less about foreign companies swooping in and taking everything over.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#315

Post by grobbyy »

whimsicalism wrote: post #208
grobbyy wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World War II was won because of US and (less advertised) Soviet manufacturing capacity. Ukraine is more constrained by weapon supplies, especially drones and artillery, than by manpower. I'm not sure both sides are playing the same game. In the game I think might be afoot, if your economy is management consultants, therapists, and hair stylists, that's "bad" GDP. Resources and manufacturing are "good" GDP. Resources…

high finance/management can be quite valuable when you’re trying to plan a conflict. this is how you get the industries developed that are capable of designing a system to turn sand into missile-targeting systems. i’m extremely skeptical of people’s ability to view the economy from on high and pick out the “good, productive gdp” and the “bad, makework gdp”.

That's not quite my point. "Productive" is for a reason. Is manufacturing perfume productive? Making video games?

It depends on your goals.

However, in a great power conflict, they're much less productive than tanks, drones, fighter jets, and guns.

Conversely, money thrown into weapons can't be used for quality-of-life improvements.

Neither of these is "good" or "bad" per se.

Some industries are hybrid. A ship yard is dual purpose.

If two hypothetical countries are playing this game, and one exports movies to buy ships and vice versa, when war breaks out, one country might be stuck without movies and the other without ships.

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