311–320 of 1001 posts
This is weird because the information I was getting was that Harris was leading the opinion polls and the Trump supporters were dropping him at the last minute. Now this feels like a rigged election.
Seriously, the people who voted for him probably didn’t want to defend it to people asking their opinion.
Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
For example, from Nate Silver's blog:
> The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.
All this weighting and massaging and inferencing results in results that are basically wrong.
Come Election Night he basically threw the whole thing in the trash too!
Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
Something I've been wondering lately is how big of a blind spot I have from being habitually online. Like, I'll read the news, and I'll read political discussions on HN and r/politics and r/conservative and Twitter, and I'll try to get a sense of what everyone is thinking, but unfortunately I don't think that's possible. The posters on these sites all have one thing in common: they're into politics and current events…
Then the last paragraph shows you have a long way to go.
> If you put someone in a voting booth who isn't interested by news, who do they vote for? I mean, Trump has a lot of surface-level qualities - he's a tall, confident white man who's a successful boss of business and an anti-establishment outsider - and maybe that's enough to capture this demographic.
I live in a rural working class region. I have beers with these guys all the time. They're my best friends and I'm the odd coder guy that works from home.
They do not care about the surface level qualities, besides the fact that he's hilarious. They might not read articles but they listen to podcasts a lot on their commutes at 4AM in the morning.
They don't want war with Russia, they're pissed about the COVID stuff, and they aren't happy with the price of gas.
They don't care that he's tall.
As a European, I’m trying to see the positive side of this situation. Here are a few thoughts: - It appears that Democrats are often seen as part of an "elite," which makes it difficult for people at home to relate to or understand their message. A full reset might be needed to bridge this gap. - Europe has long been under the shadow of the United States. Perhaps this could be a good start toward greater independence…
I wish this were true for so long, but so far we have seen nothing. Not even Draghis recommendations were really introduced.
For some of us this is not unexpected at all. But the margin and the likely win of the popular vote should send a clear message.