311–320 of 443 posts
$6.6B raise. The company loses $5B per year. So all this money literally gives them just an extra ~year and change of runway. I know the AI hype is sky high at the moment (hence the crazy valuation), but if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. Another interesting part: > Under the terms of the new investment round, OpenAI has two years to transform into a for-pro…
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You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.
> Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions. 2 trillion. Approximately 13x OpenAI's current valuation. Google nets almost 100 billion a year. OpenAI grosses 4 billion a year. Wild numbers.
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Google has also magnificently shit the bed with Gemini; their ads business is getting raked over the coals in court; they are a twice convicted monopolist; and are driving away top talent in droves. It reminds me of the old joke: Heard about the guy who fell off a skyscraper? On his way down past each floor, he kept saying to reassure himself: So far so good... so far so good... so far so good.
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> I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. I mean, what exactly do you see happening? The have a product people love and practically incalculable upside potential. They may or may not end up the winners, but I see no scenario in which it "doesn't end well". It's already "well", even if the company went defunct tomorrow. > that clause with that timeline seems a bit risky. I'm 99% certain that OpenAI drove the terms…
> The have a product people love and practically incalculable upside potential I'm willing to bet that if you swapped out GPT with Claude, Gemini or Llama under the hood 95% of their users wouldn't even notice. LLMs are fast becoming a commodity. The differentiating factor is simply how many latest NVIDIA GPUs the company owns. And even otherwise, people loving a product isn't what makes a company successful. People…
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The difference is Tesla had a moat with the electric car market, there were no affordable and practical EVs 10 years ago. OpenAI is surrounded by competition and Meta is constantly releasing Llama weights to break up any closed source monopolies.
The Nissan Leaf was far more affordable than a Tesla 10 years ago and very practical for anyone living in a city.
And that's going by Nissan's claimed range, not even real world. So that's on a 100% charge, when the car is brand new with no battery degradation, and under the ideal efficiency conditions that you never really get.
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There was an implication in there on risk. If you don't believe a company doing $4 bill of revenue is significantly less risky than the average VC investment, you might be in dreamworld.
My understanding is that it is 4B of losses, not revenue.
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My understanding is that it is 4B of losses, not revenue.
Both are approximately true. But, anything software has some accounting for things (like training a model) that really should be categorized as capex instead of opex and it distorts the numbers.
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You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.
Do you want to know how much traffic OpenAI has pulled off Google in the past two years? Because it's not pretty lol. It's definitely single percentage points if not less than a percent (can't remember the exact numbers). They're a rounding error compared to Google.
I personally always use ChatGPT over Google.
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Google has also magnificently shit the bed with Gemini; their ads business is getting raked over the coals in court; they are a twice convicted monopolist; and are driving away top talent in droves. It reminds me of the old joke: Heard about the guy who fell off a skyscraper? On his way down past each floor, he kept saying to reassure himself: So far so good... so far so good... so far so good.
> their ads business is getting raked over the coals in court only display ads business, which is a fraction of total ads revenue