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Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

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Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#311
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would like to add a point that is rarely spelled out: A shock-therapy style stop to fossil fuel extraction will kill millions of people through starvation, economic collapse and insufficient heating in winter. Depending how shocking the shock therapy is it could be billions.

Wait until you see what climate change does with continued carbon emissions! But this has always been the problem with stopping climate change. We are choosing between lesser, but certain immediate pain vs larger but less certain future pain. In the 1880s we could have easily stopped climate changed, but been forced to slow growth. The pain would have been minimal for those living, but the probability of extreme cata…

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Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#312
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're going to build bridges and trains and rails and roads and ships out of cross laminated timber? And yes, you can build pretty tall structures out of CLT, but there's still smaller than what you can build with steel and concrete. The tallest one built that I know of is 25 stories. But at least 6 or so of those floors are all concrete+steel, and it still uses concrete+steel emergency stairwells. https://www.fs.usd…

For foundations, lime stabilised soil has been used in civil engineering projects for a very, very long time: https://www.geoengineer.org/education/ground-improvement/lim... As for the rest, I was referring to buildings. I don't think anything is so worthy of being built that wrecking the environment is a fair trade. Railways are an honourable exception, since they displace (far more wasteful) cars. Light rail is esp…

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Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t seriously believe that we’re in that grave of danger

I seriously believe it. Climate change will almost certainly lead to food insecurity and political upheavals, leading mass migration and war, not to mention potential knock-on effects where, for example, photosynthesis reductions due to extreme heat at the equator, rapid rates of methane release as permafrost melts, mass death in a heating and acidifying sea... . really there are just so many things that could go wro…

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Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Is unconstitutional" does not mean "would require a constitutional amendment to exist." Yes, Congress can pass a new law. That doesn't make the supreme court's decision absolutely fucking rank idiocy based entirely in political goals covered in the thinnest veneer of jurisprudence. Yes, Gorsuch thinks that Congress can't delegate at all and basically all execute agencies should be destroyed. We know. He'll ride out…

> "Is unconstitutional" does not mean "would require a constitutional amendment to exist." It kind of does. Your version would make any interpretation of the law a constitutional question. The plaintiff in a civil case claims they're entitled to damages but the court found their argument unconstitutional because it's Congress and not plaintiffs who make the law? > That doesn't make the supreme court's decision absolu…

> It kind of does. Your version would make any interpretation of the law a constitutional question.

I don't think that's true. Consider a case that is doing statutory interpretation to resolve a conflict between two federal laws. There is no question about the constitutional authority of Congress or any other body here.

> Do you really think they come to a different result if it was Trump's EPA saying they had to replace renewables with "reliable" generation methods over whatever pretext?

Yes. The Supreme Court is a political body, like any other. Notably, West Virginia v EPA took on a regulation that had already been reversed by the Trump administration.

> It seems like people have forgotten how to compromise. You want a climate change bill, Republicans don't.

And yet, the Clean Air Act exists. Congress could edit it or repeal it if they wanted.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I seriously believe it. Climate change will almost certainly lead to food insecurity and political upheavals, leading mass migration and war, not to mention potential knock-on effects where, for example, photosynthesis reductions due to extreme heat at the equator, rapid rates of methane release as permafrost melts, mass death in a heating and acidifying sea... . really there are just so many things that could go wro…

Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-023-03518-z

That regression line is shit.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#316
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every industry contributes a negligible amount. What? No.

Practically yes. You have to look at it more granularly. Likely you're looking at it by economic sector. You need to look at it by sub industries in industries. That's more closer to the logical perspective people are acting on.

What stumbles me is information like the following [1]

> Indeed, making the much bigger model, the GPT-3 with 175 billion parameters, emitted over 550 tons of CO2e while consuming 1,287 MW hours of electricity, per computer scientist Kate Saenko. It’s the same amount of emissions as a single person taking 550 roundtrip flights between New York and San Francisco.

Specifically, I struggle with the interpretation where this is presented as significant amount. To me, training GPT-3 at the cost of about a SINGLE New York-San Francisco return flight is practically negligible. I wonder whether for example at a conference like NeurIPS the carbon cost of all the experiments is exceeded by the carbon cost of participant travel to the conference. My guess is that probably yes.

[1] https://carboncredits.com/how-big-is-the-co2-footprint-of-ai...

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#317

The whole world suffers from an extremely deep lack of vision. Why does a utility like PG&E fight so hard to hurt solar installation? If I were CEO I'd buy or start a foundry to make solar panels. Then I'd start an installation and service org. People need energy, why should I care where they get it so long as they get it from me? The grid isn't going away so stop trying so desperately to protect that revenue stream.…

Hello, i am big oil exec. I make money when people buy oil, not solar panels. Id like to give you big money personally if you dont buy solar and only buy oil from me. Then you get money and i get money. We both get big money and you dont have to do any new hard work. You can just coast now. Big money. Sign here.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#318
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to Putin. There's plenty of oil. They've been saying its going to run out for 50 years. Dead fields have replenished themselves.

I’m not talking about some peak oil collapse theory, but the actually reality that the return on investment of extracting oil is steadily eroding. Have a look at the data yourself: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.012...

Yes. EROEI. Very familiar with that. This is an anonymous forum so you won't believe my credentials ( as is wise!), so I'll put it this way: do you think that the idea that oil is a precious and rare resource is good or bad for the major producers (i.e. state producers)?

The oil supply chain is logistically demanding. Once oil is pumped out of the ground it's got to go somewhere, and once it's there it has to move or be burned, because storing oil gets expensive. What oil producers care about is predictability of demand, price is important but it's secondary to that. If the whole world knows that there's plenty of oil it's much harder to set the price where you want it. If the world thinks oil is a rare and precious commodity the price is natural.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Is unconstitutional" does not mean "would require a constitutional amendment to exist." It kind of does. Your version would make any interpretation of the law a constitutional question. The plaintiff in a civil case claims they're entitled to damages but the court found their argument unconstitutional because it's Congress and not plaintiffs who make the law? > That doesn't make the supreme court's decision absolu…

> It kind of does. Your version would make any interpretation of the law a constitutional question. I don't think that's true. Consider a case that is doing statutory interpretation to resolve a conflict between two federal laws. There is no question about the constitutional authority of Congress or any other body here. > Do you really think they come to a different result if it was Trump's EPA saying they had to rep…

> I don't think that's true. Consider a case that is doing statutory interpretation to resolve a conflict between two federal laws. There is no question about the constitutional authority of Congress or any other body here.

There was no question about the constitutional authority of Congress in the other case. They were interpreting the Clean Air act and concluded it didn't enable the EPA to do this.

> Yes. The Supreme Court is a political body, like any other.

They generally try to avoid political issues and punt them to the elected branches.

> Notably, West Virginia v EPA took on a regulation that had already been reversed by the Trump administration.

'The case was not rendered moot when the Biden administration took over in 2020, as the EPA under the Biden administration stated their inclination to include "outside the fence line" controls, making the case still relevant to the authority the EPA had in interpreting their Congressional charter.' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_v._EPA)

> And yet, the Clean Air Act exists. Congress could edit it or repeal it if they wanted.

You keep saying "the Clean Air Act exists" but the question is what it authorizes the EPA to do.

They could pretty easily impose costs on fossil fuel generators that make them uncompetitive and thereby cause a switch to other generation methods, but that would raise energy costs for consumers in the meantime, which would be unpopular. So they wanted to do something else, but the something else wasn't a thing the law authorized the EPA to do, so if you want that you need to change the law.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#320
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who drives a heavy vehicle alone is using immense amounts of power (hundreds of horses' at once, by approximation), it takes some infrastructure but with wind, sun, and water we can power that. What makes you say that your livelihood depends on an amount of energy so large that it's really bad? Why couldn't that be generated sustainably? Why not talk to your employer about a step in that direction, given that…

> Why couldn't that be generated sustainably? It very likely could, and I'd happily pay for it. Like, my Mac Studio with an M2 Max in it probably took, all said, and absurd about of resources to create... But it only cost me $3k or something. Well, if it works as long as it should, it'll easily help me earn over half a million dollars. I'd rather pay far more for the computer and cover the expenses of the externaliti…

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