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The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

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311–320 of 339 posts

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The military took many lessons from Vietnam that didn't work in the Middle East. As one example, at the start of the war in Afghanistan, Marine scout snipers would operate in two-man teams. This was a Vietnam-era SOP that favored stealth over firepower--two men can't lay down much heat, but they don't need to if the enemy can't find and engage them. It's pretty easy to hide a couple guys in a jungle, so it worked wel…

>There's a saying that rings true, "The military is always fighting the last war" It's a saying that people in the military are well aware of (OEF Veteran here). We were well aware of what happened in Vietnam with counterinsurgency. The problem is that counterinsurgency just doesn't work unless you treat the country like an imperial colony. We didn't do that, in Iraq or in Afghanistan. It wasn't worth the resources t…

> It's a saying that people in the military are well aware of (OEF Veteran here).

Same. That's where I heard it.

> The Taliban were able to do this with ease.

The Taliban weren't doing what we were doing. They generally did not, to my knowledge, go out and sit in an OP on a rocky hillside for 3-5 days straight, where any random goat herder might happen to decide to graze his herd one afternoon. Their MO was to set up an ambush that would be executed the same day and that was not likely to be discovered by a passing American, since Americans weren't wandering randomly through the hills at all times.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You posted a lecture in which Mearsheimer says Russia will never try to conquer Ukraine, because "Putin is much too smart for that" -- and ask us to accept him as an expert?

Mearsheimer saw it coming and got it basically right. He predicted "Putin will wreck Ukraine" and this is happening now.

I've been thinking about why Mearsheimer is so unpopular and why he loses every public debate (e.g., Munk Debate).

My guess:

Cognitive dissonance hurts. Injustice is not supposed to win, people don't want to compromise even if the alternative is much worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhgWLmd7mCo

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#313
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of a nitpick, but really not: length has nothing to do with whether a rifle is a "battle rifle". The difference between a battle rifle and assault rifle is all about the cartridge, not length of the barrel.

I think that's probably arguable. Most of these kinds of definitions are much more length focused and the length does most of the same things as having a larger cartridge.

It's really not. Any serious discussion of "battle rifles", by military history professionals, hinges on the cartridge. I've never seen a definition of it in terms of barrel length.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#314
post #79

> What is – quietly, because they haven’t tried to launch a major invasion recently – most militaries are probably similarly incapable of the basic tasks of industrial warfare? I once read an article that argued in the absence of war, it's impossible to tell if a doctrine or commander is good or not . Maybe you've got five officers up for promotion. One officer wants to give soldiers high-tech equipment, a heads-up d…

It doesn't matter in the military. People aren't machines. And when you throw them into high stress, chaotic, unpredictable environments, the expections of performance arent like what you see in the movies.

If everyone had a helper in ear with birdseye view from drone or sattelite that would clear up lots of unneccesary fog of war. I've seen footage where the squad leader has an audio feed with a drone operator fro ukraine

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those things. The one who is most flexible and has the best ooda loop when under pressure.

Wait, isn't the point of teaching the OODA loop to avoid maintaining a legible OODA loop? As I've been taught it, OODA loops are a means of modeling and interfering with adversaries, not a tool for organizing yourself.

Both sides have their own OODA loops. The phrase you hear a lot (Hollywood loves it) is: "get inside their OODA loop", which means to execute your loop faster than theirs so you are responding & acting to your observations before they can respond & act to theirs.

It may be that one side's OODA loop is dysfunctional - perhaps they have to wait on higher headquarters to respond, or has an indecisive leader - before acting and that introduces a delay that an opponent can take advantage of.

How to get a tighter OODA loop? Practice. And modeling/war-gaming in advance any potential actions so your responses become automatic. Or at least "good enough".

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#316
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember how the US went into Afghanistan with HMMWVs (aluminum bodied cars with canvas doors) and M16a2s (full length battle rifles with iron sights) and left with MRAPs and A4s. You learn stuff when you switch from training to combat.

Remember when the French went to field war in 1914 bearing the official costume with BRIGHT RED pants? Yeah you really forget about war when there is no war for a generation. Well they did have unbeatable prices on this red taint from a producer in… Germany. Yup. Some people are actually good at war.

It’s not about forgetting about war. France was constantly at war from the fifty years preceding 1914 fighting colonial conflicts.

It’s about misunderstanding new technology notably machine guns or to be even more correct a military career structure and organisation which prevented people who understood new technologies and try to shake the boat to rise in ranks while putting conservative officers in control of the army.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#317

My only quibble with this article: it fails to apply its own conclusions to the US. The balance of evidence (Pentagon procurement processes and cost overruns of major projects) shows the US military too has a significant paper component.

While possibly true, the US has been nearly continuously engaged in conflict somewhere in the world since WWII.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#318

My only quibble with this article: it fails to apply its own conclusions to the US. The balance of evidence (Pentagon procurement processes and cost overruns of major projects) shows the US military too has a significant paper component.

While possibly true, the US has been nearly continuously engaged in conflict somewhere in the world since WWII.

Hence the word "component". It certainly seems more real than other paper tigers.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#319
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember how the US went into Afghanistan with HMMWVs (aluminum bodied cars with canvas doors) and M16a2s (full length battle rifles with iron sights) and left with MRAPs and A4s. You learn stuff when you switch from training to combat.

Remember when the French went to field war in 1914 bearing the official costume with BRIGHT RED pants? Yeah you really forget about war when there is no war for a generation. Well they did have unbeatable prices on this red taint from a producer in… Germany. Yup. Some people are actually good at war.

"when there is no war for a generation."

It isn't as if there was no war for a generation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1904-5 was precisely the kind of brutal industrial conflict that foreshadowed the horrors of WWI almost to a T.

But Western powers were mostly unwilling to learn from such a distant war, and lessons learnt by junior officers who observed the carnage closely weren't taken seriously enough.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China had a demographic collapse problem that can't be remedied and can't be squared with their doctrine of racial superiority. China is on its way out.

> China had a demographic collapse problem that can't be remedied and can't be squared with their doctrine of racial superiority. It's amazing how many racists come out in these threads. China's population is projected to peak at 1.7B by 2060 and then fall to 1.5B by the century's end: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/04/24/c... If anything, China is leading the world at trying to live with a stat…

Not to defend the other poster but the numbers you listed in the article are for India.
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