As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…
I disagree with you. > Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits No, we haven't pushed linear regression to its limits. If it was only linear regression, it wouldn't work. Neural networks need a non-linearity to model complex things. The beauty is that given an infinite series of nonlinearities, one can model any mathematical function. In practice we…
The fact that ChatGPT doesn’t behave like an intelligence. (Though it converses like one with radical deficiencies in certain areas, which highlights the narrowness of the Turing Test, which itself is a big step.)
OTOH, it gets less bad at this when you wrap it in a loop that provides recall and other capacities with carefully constructed prompting as to how (“thought” process-wise, not just interaction mechanics) to integrate those capacities, so there’s maybe a decent argument that it models an important component of general intelligence.