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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#311

Post by CatWChainsaw »

NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

Well, completely deconstruct the globalized civilization we have today for a start. Everything that requires putting carbon into the atmosphere would need to be judged for whether or not it is truly necessary. And if you really want to exhibit wisdom rather than just intelligence, you'd want to start considering how things are going to work if renewables and nuclear simply just don't scale no matter what innovation you try.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#312

Post by alfor »

wcoenen wrote: post #276
alfor wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Complex systems usually tend to equilibrium otherwise they would be in constant oscillation (positive feedback theory). As we look back in ice cores, there is variation, but not constant oscillations witch confirm a self stabilizing system. A few negative feedback we don’t often hear: increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Increase in temperature increase humidity: cl…

> Increase in temperature increase humidity Water vapor amplifies the effect of other greenhouse gases. https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relati...

Yes, but also with clouds that prevent radiation from reaching the ground.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#313

Post by Daishiman »

Retric wrote: post #241
politician wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Famine will. Rice fails to germinate at 35°C. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-06118-0_...

False, 35C is described as the highest optimal temperature not the maximum in your link. Yields do slowly decline with increased temperature. For specifics, “Germination occurs within the temperature range of 50° to 107°F with an optimum temperature of about 87°F.” https://www.uaex.uada.edu/publications/pdf/mp192/chapter-2.p... Further, it’s exactly the kind of reason to chose a new variety over an old one.

Ahh fantastic. Now let's talk about the rest of the flora and fauna that is absolutely essential for crop growth beyond the few staples that get researched.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#314

Post by Daishiman »

Retric wrote: post #176
taylodl wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait until our upcoming reality hits the conspiracy theorists and religious fanatics. Climate change is going to herald in Dark Ages 2.0. I suppose the upside to that is eventually there will be an Enlightenment 2.0 also, and hopefully we'll get there faster than it took the first time. BTW, Dark Ages 1.0 wasn't even the first time humanity has been through a dark age... ...honestly, it pays to study history to…

We’ve arguably had 2 dark ages in western history though they were both localized. Meanwhile people constantly predict imminent disaster. If there’s anything to learn from history it’s that things might suck but they will probably be relatively ok. Hell the Black Death didn’t doom western civilization and it got really bad. PS: 500-1500 actually saw a great deal of innovation and improvements to the average persons q…

All of that was child's play when we lose the vast, gigantic tail of biodiversity, which will be completely unrecoverable.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#315

Post by alfor »

brnt wrote: post #267
alfor wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Complex systems usually tend to equilibrium otherwise they would be in constant oscillation (positive feedback theory). As we look back in ice cores, there is variation, but not constant oscillations witch confirm a self stabilizing system. A few negative feedback we don’t often hear: increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Increase in temperature increase humidity: cl…

Im sure the IPCC authors didn't forget their climate science 101 material. Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.

Yes we can, but what are those problems, what is the cost involved, what are we willing to sacrifice?

There is many other goals that are largely ignored because "climate" is very very popular.

I like the work of Bjorn Lomborg on that front. When we rank the problems and solution climate is not at the top.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#316

Post by alfor »

brnt wrote: post #267
alfor wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Complex systems usually tend to equilibrium otherwise they would be in constant oscillation (positive feedback theory). As we look back in ice cores, there is variation, but not constant oscillations witch confirm a self stabilizing system. A few negative feedback we don’t often hear: increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Increase in temperature increase humidity: cl…

Im sure the IPCC authors didn't forget their climate science 101 material. Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.

[flagged]

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#317

Post by klabb3 »

WorldMaker wrote: post #209
klabb3 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, those are interesting numbers. Another one I’m curious about is: how much faster are we burning fossil fuels than they are replenished naturally? The only number I found was a low estimate of 750x, and I think that was for oil. I assume “natural” gas is faster?

Given many fossil fuel deposits took millions of years to settle/decompose/compress, I don't think you get a proper X multiplier without an exponent greater than 6.

Yeah the time is interesting but it doesn’t directly imply anything about the flow. I’m curious about that. Ie how much new oil/gas etc is being produced by nature each year.

Found this[1] now, which gives a ballpark of 20-80k barrels/y which can vary quite a bit depending on the guesstimates of undiscovered reserves. Since we produce 80-100M barrels/y, we’re drinking from the basin about 1000x the rate that it replenishes. Or slightly worse, because we’re slurping up the yummy and easily accessible parts, whereas formation occurs everywhere. Still, the 1e6 estimate seems orders of magnitude too high (to my surprise as well).

Again, this is only for crude oil, and there are certainly more factors at play.

1: https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/571/how-muc...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#318

Post by paranoidrobot »

mulmen wrote: post #287
saulpw wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is basically the only country in the world that uses the Fahrenheit scale.

This is false. Fahrenheit is commonly used in Canada to this day. Awareness of the scale still exists in the UK as well. Any commonwealth country is likely to have awareness because metrication happened so late in those countries.

Awareness is not the same thing as familiarity.

If you give temperatures in Fahrenheit, most people outside the US (and Canada) are going to need to convert that to Celsius.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#319

Post by kaidon »

mulmen wrote: post #309
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Canadian I never use Fahrenheit. The only people I know who do are at least 70. Edit: For weather.

Honest question: what temperature scale is on your oven? My understanding is that it is likely to be Fahrenheit but I don't actually know.

The metric system is everywhere but the kitchen :)

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#320

Post by noiv »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #272
noiv wrote: post #266

Well, some weeks ago The Guardian wrote: Early forecasts suggest El Niño will return later in 2023, exacerbating extreme weather around the globe and making it “very likely” the world will exceed 1.5C of warming. The hottest year in recorded history, 2016, was driven by a major El Niño. 1.5°C is basically already locked in. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/16/return-o...

I'm confused as to how a part of the system can cause a change in the whole system. I understand it's changes based upon ocean temperatures, but it's not as though during an El Nino yeah our global temperature goes up and during a La Nina year it goes down, right? I can follow that El Nino will get worse and cause more local extremes across the global, but I don't know how it will cause or exacerbate the 1.5C global…

Warming of 1.5C is an average over the entire planet and a warming Pacific Ocean can drive this average beyond the threshold.

Also nowadays an El Nina more or less pauses the warming.

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