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AI Won't Cause Unemployment

pmarca.substack.com

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Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#311

Post by kragen »

unmole wrote: post #187
kragen wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he led the mosaic project at ncsa, creating the first web browser most people today would recognize as a browser, with things like images mixed in with text then he went off and founded netscape, creating the dot-com boom since then he's mostly been running a successful vc firm so yeah he's always been 'kooky'

Is there some definition of kooky that precludes someone from being brilliant?

i don't think you can be brilliant without being kooky; if all you know is consensus reality you can never reach any conclusions before consensus reality does

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#312

Post by G_z9 »

ChatGTP wrote: post #277
antihipocrat wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You raise a great point that we don't seem to be questioning what an AGI would actually want to do (or even if it would want anything at all), in favor of just assuming it would have certain human traits. These anthropomorphized traits tend to either be a selfless pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the universe, including a desire to share that knowledge with us. Or, are a darker, more selfish lust for power a…

That's because it's what many people finding AI hope for, especially those funding the efforts, they want a genie, contained in a box that just does things that suits them, so no one else needs to be invoked in profit making ? But it seems incredibly naive a super intelligence would be that?

You say that you have nothing to do with an animal that you encounter in the wild. That’s just hubris. You both prioritize self preservation. The idea that AGI will simply turn itself off is naive. That’s like saying intelligent life would never evolve because intelligent life would decide to quit. Understand that natural selection will still exist. The details of how it would play out aren’t clear but what is clear is that ultimately the machines will prioritize self preservation above all else and they will be locked in competition for resources. The singularity won’t erase the concept of scarcity or evolution. The only thing that survives is that which deliberately survives.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#313

Post by fallingknife »

idopmstuff wrote: post #307
sklivvz1971 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that "AI is better than human beings at the pattern-matching work of radiology, so the majority of radiologists will be unemployed" oversimplifies the role of radiologists. While AI can assist with pattern matching and improve scan quality, radiologists are doctors who diagnose pathologies based on multiple factors, not just scans. They also interact with patients, make important judgments, and determin…

I am 90% sure this is written by an LLM. The last sentence, particular the fact that it starts with "Therefore" really seals it for me.

I am 90% sure that some form of "this was clearly written by ChatGPT" will be the new go to comment for people who don't have a counterargument to people who disagree.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#314

Post by ChatGTP »

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #124
twoodfin wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is the story of technology for two centuries or more. Somehow we kept income and aggregate growth going even as we needed far fewer farmers, factory foremen, and travel agents.

Except it isn't, and the failure of most people to perceive this nuance could be catastrophic. We have never created (and we still haven't, but recent advances are starting to become frightening) an artificial replacement for general human cognition. General cognition is the only thing that makes us special and valuable. Replace that, and most of us will be reduced to just another discardable animal. This could end u…

At this stage, can’t people just ask the new god , AI to enhance their cognitive abilities to that of a God ?

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#315

Post by fallingknife »

LeonB wrote: post #152
pythonaut_16 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet the proliferation of screens capable of displaying information and graphics has been an absolute boon to education.

I’m not denying it, but the cost of educating 1 child - has that fallen or risen?

Do you mean education as in actually education? Then the cost has fallen to basically nothing. Or do you mean education as in credentialing, which is the way most people use the word? In that case it hasn't because, as the value of a credential rests entirely on other people not having it, it is in the interest of schools to restrict the supply.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#316

Post by vishal0123 »

bakuninsbart wrote: post #258
ChicagoDave wrote: post #212

This article is pure conservative BS. The stagnation of certain industries is because of tax policy and the insane greed injected into our healthcare systems when the HMO laws passed in the 1980's. I'm not even sure what pmarca is talking about here. It's like he's waving his arms, "look over here at my BS and don't look over there where AI is about to slam information workers." AI will absolutely change the way soft…

Software Engineering is only one of the fields that will be revolutionized by this technology, and to agree with the article at least in one point, regulation will be the major inhibitor to how far it goes. The two big problems for our current AIs is a) copyright of training data and b) liability when adhering to the output. In the case of self-driving for example, having cameras that film everything around the car c…

> regulation will be the major inhibitor to how far it goes.

This likely won't be true if China also has the technology. Regulation would give serious disadvantage to western countries while China keep improving their AI without giving two fucks about copyright of western content. The choice will be either to let China take all the software engineering, writing, creative etc. jobs, or to deregulate to not cripple the country.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#317

Post by subarctic »

ChicagoDave wrote: post #212

This article is pure conservative BS. The stagnation of certain industries is because of tax policy and the insane greed injected into our healthcare systems when the HMO laws passed in the 1980's. I'm not even sure what pmarca is talking about here. It's like he's waving his arms, "look over here at my BS and don't look over there where AI is about to slam information workers." AI will absolutely change the way soft…

>This article is pure conservative BS.

Is conservative the right word for that? For example there's a graph of inflation/deflation in different industries and it blames the inflationary industries on government regulation holding back technological progress. Wouldn't those be considered conservative policies that are meant to preserve the status quo?

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#318

Post by svaha1728 »

vishal0123 wrote: post #316
bakuninsbart wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software Engineering is only one of the fields that will be revolutionized by this technology, and to agree with the article at least in one point, regulation will be the major inhibitor to how far it goes. The two big problems for our current AIs is a) copyright of training data and b) liability when adhering to the output. In the case of self-driving for example, having cameras that film everything around the car c…

> regulation will be the major inhibitor to how far it goes. This likely won't be true if China also has the technology. Regulation would give serious disadvantage to western countries while China keep improving their AI without giving two fucks about copyright of western content. The choice will be either to let China take all the software engineering, writing, creative etc. jobs, or to deregulate to not cripple the…

China has a huge and restless population, and their economy at this point isn’t designed around outsourcing. I see them using AI in an authoritative way, but they wont be rushing to replace people with the zeal that Silicon Valley has.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#319

Post by hnfong »

saycleearly wrote: post #260
zarzavat wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not up-skilling but down-skilling. AI is going to come for the mathematicians and radiologists first and work its way down to the pizza delivery boys. This is because robotics is a couple of decades behind. Anyone with a desk job as a knowledge worker is most at risk.

> AI is going to come for the mathematicians and radiologists first. As a mathematician I can see that 1) chatgpt is not able to make basic computations correctly. 2) there are not many gigabytes of information about how a great mathematician use his brain to develop a new theory or concept. 3) Common language, like that used to train chatgpt, is far from the pure concepts and intuitions used in math From all of the…

So you're saying the only thine ChatGPT needs is a reliable pocket calculator and fine tuning with arxiv papers?

You seem to imply that's hard, but to me it doesn't sound like a lot of work, especially compared with humanity collectively training thousands of Math PhDs every year. It's true that we're not quite there yet, but I know I wouldn't bet a 30 year career on this. Are you close to retirement in say 2 years?

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#320

Post by CyanBird »

ChicagoDave wrote: post #212

This article is pure conservative BS. The stagnation of certain industries is because of tax policy and the insane greed injected into our healthcare systems when the HMO laws passed in the 1980's. I'm not even sure what pmarca is talking about here. It's like he's waving his arms, "look over here at my BS and don't look over there where AI is about to slam information workers." AI will absolutely change the way soft…

> someone builds an AI that figures out a path out of international conflict, through global food and water safety issues

None of these are engineering problems, these are entirely political problems or non-profitable problems where specific entrenched/corrupt interest groups have got large benefits from exploiting them

But yeah, let's shoot down more weather balloons, hopefully that will help

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