It’s not Tourette’s but a new type of mass sociogenic illness

> The narrative you have presented is frequently weaponized...

Indeed. This is both true, and a non-sequitur. Bad-faith arguers exist. Let us acknowledge the fact that some people will reprehensibly refer to every trans woman as a "man in a dress". Let's assume the best about each other.

If you're trying to say that everyone is a TERF who points out that some men (again, not trans women) will take advantage, or that only bad people point this out, then you're not addressing the concern, but dismissing it. Addressing and empathizing with the actual concern will get trans people into their preferred bathrooms and keep bad men out.

Anyway, you and I won't litigate this here, so if you have more to add, know that I'll read whatever you have to say but might not reply. Be well.

Exaggeration of the actual happens for cause and effect alike. It is often hard to tell which side exaggeration favors until time passes.

> Compared to previous years or decades (or centuries) there is a markedly higher percentage of children/young adults who "self-identify as 'trans'", often clustered and in waves.

I don't see how you could usefully extrapolate a "real" baseline rate based on what prior generations did. Atypical sexual/gender identities have been taboo for almost the entirety of human civilization, and only as these taboos are now being lifted are people able to express these traits without fear of horrific repercussions.

There's nothing ambiguous or misleading, what you're actually objecting to is the concrete and specific use of language to describe ideas you don't like and which you don't want to see proliferate. You aren't objecting to people being mislead, you're objecting to people understanding. Do give 1984 a read, I think you'll find the irony that you are appropriating a term used in that book in order to invert it's meaning and to take the very actions that the book is criticizing quite amusing, and then we can be in on the joke together.

Heterosexuality doesn't have to be the default, and indeed, that era is ending. The evidence for it is right here; you feel compelled to go to bat for the notion, not something you'd need to do if it really were mystically natural and inextricably true. Heterosexuality is promulgated as a default because it is key to a power structure called the patriarchy. The patriarchy works by assigning certain gender roles to men and women; these roles allow men to subjugate women, and also allow men to be subjugated by other men. The patriarchy's strength lies in the rigidity of those gender roles, and as the gender roles are loosened the patriarchy gets weaker. Lots of power within our society is expressed through patriarchy, for instance, the idea that men express their agency through violence instead of through emotion and that they should readily throw their lives away in service of a cause is useful for recruiting men as soldiers and police, and soldiers and police are useful in upholding many other power structures (like state power or the power of the rich). So over the last few millenia, many different power structures have come to rely on the existence of patriarchy, and it's been woven into our mythology and the fabric of our society. The fluidity of gender roles is a direct challenge to patriarchy, and people with nonconforming identities have been forced into the closet through violence and social reprisal.

This was a natural series of events in the sense that all of history took place in the context of the natural world, sure. But cancer is natural, we don't have to accept it. In the same way, I reject your heteronormativity. I think it sucks. I don't think people are "naturally" any particular gender, it's a role we learn to play as we're socialized. That doesn't make it bad, there's nothing wrong with being a man or a woman, there's nothing wrong with embracing very traditional views of what that means if that's what makes you happy. I live my life as a pretty traditional man. But that isn't all there is to life, and that's not all it should mean to be human.

> It seems unlikely to me that social norms alone could cause gender dysphoric people to believe so strongly that their gender identity mismatches their biological sex

I think it's quite likely.

As an analogy, it seems relatively common for people to become so convinced that they are so unattractive that they undergo highly invasive cosmetic surgery. It's also very much the case that there are social groups where this is normalised (and many people in those social groups will choose to have this surgery) and social groups where it is not (and people in those groups are unlikely to opt for cosmetic surgery).

The difference seems to be that the people in one social group are telling each other that the appropriate solution to feeling unattractive means that one is unattractive and that surgery to change one's body is an appropriate response to that, whereas in the other social group people might either convince each other that they're attractive as they are, or seek alternative remedies such as changes in clothing, grooming, make-up, etc. Or even therapy, self-esteem coaching or similar.

Similarly, if one is an environment where one is constantly told that men (or women) are or should act/be a certain way, then it is hardly surprising that one might develop the notion that one isn't a man/woman. Such an environment is commonly created by people with traditional notions of gender. But it's reinforced by people suggesting that transitioning might be the solution to not fitting one's gender norms.

Which isn't to say that there aren't people for whom physically transitioning is the right answer (the best solution for them), or that do have an inherent dislike of their body that isn't externally influenced. Likewise, there are people for whom cosmetic surgery is absolutely the right solution (e.g. people with a cleft palate or who have suffered from severe burns). But I question the way it currently seems to being positioned (by some people) as the default response to not fitting in with the norms of one's existing gender, and I also question the idea that it is innate and not socially influenced.