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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

sfstandard.com

311–320 of 622 posts

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug use is absolutely associated with erratic behavior including violence. I am pro-decriminalization but we need to be honest about the effects of chronic drug usage, especially methamphetamine.

> especially methamphetamine. Why especially Meth and not Heroin or other opioids?

Meth gives people lots of energy and prolonged use causes psychosis. Heroin makes people feel content and sleepy.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#312
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real real secret is Portugal, can't beat 10 years tax-free on foreign income.

If you're aUS citizen or permanent resident, the US will still tax that (beyond the Foreign Income Tax Credit).

Yeah, that law needs scrapping. Feel bad for the seppos getting double dicked on tax.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#313

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

> Crime is rampant According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ... > Drug use and filth is everywhere. Voters can’t seem to wrap their head around better housing policies to get people off the street. It’s disappointing, the entire Bay Area is guilty of this.

That data is 3 years old, and only accounts for reported crime. If you look at the numbers for 2021, it doesn't look so good - and that doesn't account for all of the non-reported crime, or incidents where the cops just don't show up.

[1] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> converting them into dormitories cannot possibly recoup the cost Once we start talking easing housing code requirements, especially if it's done in the name of increasing access to housing, the conversation becomes about just how much conversion is really necessary, and how little can be done to break even. And there's a big continuum. If one end of this continuum is a standard college dorm setup, the other is lite…

Why should anyone care about the rich owners of the office buildings having to write off their losses and instead make it easier to accommodate people like cattle. The only way they are going to recoup some of their costs is by charging significantly for the right to live in a windowless box. So it seems this scheme is much less about helping some poor homeless person and much more about some rich investor keeping so…

In the event regulations are relaxed, I have absolutely zero problem haircutting the hell out of the formerly-commercial owners.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#315

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

> city officials are asleep at the wheel Eh, San Francisco's voters have been drinking crazy water for some time. New developments blocked by renters. Stringent building codes and environmental reviews defended by those who think they're being compassionate to the poor. Scolding tech companies for hiring in the city and then panicking when they stop hiring in the city. This obviously isn't all of them. But it's not l…

For real. I really don't know why people would bother opening offices there. Especially post pandemic

"Investment", VCs are all around the US now and those who refuse to invest outside of city boundaries are going to have a bad time. At this point even setting shop in LA might be cheaper and give you a nicer scenery.

"Talent", hire remotely for the most talent-sensitive positions. Your react app is not rocket science.

The NIMBYs are right, we should stop moving there and stop paying them those extortionate rents.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#316
post #213

Still waiting for Vancouver real estate to follow suit but feels weird that in Vancouver its' socially acceptable for people without homes single out a certain ethnic group every cycle. Used to Japanese in the 1980s, Hong Kongers in 90s, Taiwanese in 00s and Chinese in 10s. This type of scapegoating doesn't seem prevalent in other real estate markets like California, their money is correct on high wage disparity betw…

> In both markets there is surprising silence on REITs and corporations buying up residential living spaces and flipping it. Wouldn't be surprised if those special interest groups also own/influence local media as well. I imagine that they're all financing YIMBY organizations, whose aims would do nothing but increase the value of their holdings.

Hold up, since when do YIMBY organizations increase the values? Isn't NIMBY all about protecting home values, and YIMBY about actually building more homes?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, this is me reaching back aways in memory. Walls with plumbing through them are held to different standards to other walls. Walls with plumbing use 2 by 6s. Builders and architects try to optimize by making as few walls as possible walls with plumbing because they are more expensive. Your regular walls use 2 by 4s. So yes, some walls have plumbing running through them, but not all. Any architect and contractor wil…

I've never seen a wall framed with 2x6s because it had plumbing in it. It's all 2x4 regardless, here—you almost never see a 2x6 wall. Is that a California thing?

As far as I know, no. I learned about this when I lived in North Carolina. The house I grew up in had 2x6 wet walls with all other walls being 2x4.

It could be state or local building codes based. Here is a mention of it from a city in Illinois. But it definitely isn't just a California thing.

https://elmhurst.org/DocumentCenter/View/1826/Plumbing-Requi...

https://www.reference.com/world-view/standard-wall-thickness...

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ ... Every time I see something like this I will point out that during the anti-police movement that happened a while back, many police started reducing their activity either because they were told to, because prosecutes would refuse to prosecute, or because they didn't want to be the…

This theory falls down when you look at murders. They're down with all the others on that link, and they're highly unlikely to go unreported.

for 3 year old data, yes - but they are up 30% over that in 2021

[1] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#319
post #213

Still waiting for Vancouver real estate to follow suit but feels weird that in Vancouver its' socially acceptable for people without homes single out a certain ethnic group every cycle. Used to Japanese in the 1980s, Hong Kongers in 90s, Taiwanese in 00s and Chinese in 10s. This type of scapegoating doesn't seem prevalent in other real estate markets like California, their money is correct on high wage disparity betw…

The impact of foreign investment has been much greater in Vancouver, though. 40% of the population was born outside of Canada.

Not saying it’s a bad thing, but it’s not just seething racism at play, there were major waves of immigration into the city, which drove up housing prices.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#320
post #299

So the commercial real estate problem is real, but this article also is concerned with the impacts to the municipal government. How important are those really? > The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His…

  This data is several years old, but in a ranking of large American cities by budget per citizen
That is an incredibly disingenuous metric and it's not surprising at all that DC and SF are at the top of the list. Washington DC is a quasi-state masquerading as a city and San Francisco is a consolidated city and county. The budgets of those two cities encompass things that are externalized in other cities.
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