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A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

reneweconomy.com.au

311–320 of 365 posts

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean higher annual peaks, then it's probably easier to say that, because that's exactly what has been motivating the early solar deployments and the early battery deployments. The very high summer peaks correlate well with solar (in many places) and so shaving that peak saves you more than you were spending on solar, even before the price plummeted. Same with batteries replacing expensive gas peaker plants. Ov…

> Note it's a common thing for "pro-fossil fuel" advocates to show "peaks" without enough context. Usually what looks like a peak on a daily basis is in fact a drop in the bucket compared with the yearly peak. I'm not pro-fossil, rather the opposite. I'm anti-fossil (GHG in general) fuel, and want us to use all production methods available that allow us to gut GHG emissions, including solar, wind AND nuclear. Eventua…

(I agree with almost all of your comment.)

I don’t agree that fossil fuel should be “taxed at a high enough level to make sure both nuclear and renewable investments have a chance of being profitable”, but do agree that it should be taxed significantly higher. (If the outcome of that is that renewables have a chance to compete, great. But if there was a renewable that needed a $50/gallon tax to be competitive, it doesn’t get my agreement to tax to that level.)

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#312
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm real bullish on electrification of everything, but the necessary service upgrades for me to get a level 2 charger on my property would cost on the order of $5-10k. Edit: typo corrected, I said level 3 previously

I don't know if these exist on the market for consumers, but the way that the big superchargers work around this is to co-locate battery storage, so they can trickle charge from the grid and then fast charge to the car. If you're going to need to spend 10K it feels like you could possibly better spend that on solar and/or batteries. Here's a portable charger which claims that it costs the same as a home charger insta…

That "Zip" thing would be massively improved if it did not act as a car charger but as a portable car battery. Instead of - like the background video shows - taking the thing out of the car, hooking it up to the car charge socket and waiting 60 minutes it should just plug into the car power circuit through a connector in that same trunk, just leave it there and drive the car using power from the thing. This feels like the EV-approach to a spare petrol can in the trunk which itself was the ICE-approach to the bag of oats in the buggy.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel Europe situation is by far better than here in Japan. Here, land is small, 75% of land is mountains (so hard to bring wind parts), suitable sea (shallower) for cheaper offshore wind is rare than it looks, much area heavily snows, grid is smaller and divided for 50/60Hz, and almost zero natural resources exists. Even if HVDC connection to foreign grid is possible solution, closer bigger lands (China and Russia)…

Floating solar (inland) and floating wind (at sea) are the answer. But Japan actually has a unique advantage in aiming for net-zero in that they have a culture of renewing buildings on short timescales and cenralised property ownership. They can reduce electricity demand and GHG emissions faster in the next decade by building better homes and offices than in rolling out renewables, though they can do both at the same…

PV is one of the easiest renewable to install here so it's now heavily being installed now, but it's one of the most unstable energy source so can't be relied so much for a primary option. I'd like to see floating wind development but it seems that its development is now in progress. There's also typhoon and tsunami. I agree that buildings improvement is also important that is not much advanced.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean higher annual peaks, then it's probably easier to say that, because that's exactly what has been motivating the early solar deployments and the early battery deployments. The very high summer peaks correlate well with solar (in many places) and so shaving that peak saves you more than you were spending on solar, even before the price plummeted. Same with batteries replacing expensive gas peaker plants. Ov…

> Note it's a common thing for "pro-fossil fuel" advocates to show "peaks" without enough context. Usually what looks like a peak on a daily basis is in fact a drop in the bucket compared with the yearly peak. I'm not pro-fossil, rather the opposite. I'm anti-fossil (GHG in general) fuel, and want us to use all production methods available that allow us to gut GHG emissions, including solar, wind AND nuclear. Eventua…

Wind power is cheap. This has been true for over a decade. It's not a conspiracy (unless you count the fossil fuel companies and their pet politicians lying about everything for decades, and literally profiting from misery and death).

You have to really try hard to make renewables and nuclear enemies, but a lot of money has been spent on that as it became more obvious that renewables were a good idea and a threat to fossil fuels. I've noticed a recent trend where people attack roof mounted solar because it's so much worse than utility solar. Utility solar is just replacing nuclear in the argument as people get wise to the scam and they need to update the message to slow down the fossil fuel phase out by pointing out that "this isn't perfect, do something else" in the hope that they won't do the something else.

For me nuclear is in the same boat as tidal, geothermal or CSP. Cool tech, but entirely on cost, wind and solar are going to dominate energy production in the future so at best a bit player.

Luckily nearly every single other policy supports tidal, CSP and nuclear just as much as it supports solar and wind. Electric vehicles? Can run on nuclear electricity. Green Hydrogen? can be made with nuclear electricity (technically called Pink Hydrogen). Heat pumps? Can be run with nuclear electricity. Carbon taxes? Don't apply to nuclear as it's low carbon. Air pollution controls? Don't apply to nuclear as it's low pollution. Insulation? Makes it easier to use heat pumps, powered by nuclear power. Time of use pricing? Traditionally used exactly for nuclear power. Demand response? Keeps nuclear running at it's peak efficiency. Battery storage peakers? Can time shift nuclear generated electricity. Believing in climate change? Great opportunity for nuclear, lots of people in the climate change community supported it as part of solution, before wind and solar plummetted in price.

> At the end of 2008, James Hansen stated five priorities that he felt then President-elect Barack Obama should adopt "for solving the climate and energy problems, while stimulating the economy": efficient energy use, renewable energy, a smart grid, generation IV nuclear reactors and carbon capture and storage. Regarding nuclear, he expressed opposition to the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, stating that the $25 Billion (US) surplus held in the Nuclear Waste Fund "should be used to develop fast reactors that consume nuclear waste, and thorium reactors to prevent the creation of new long-lived nuclear waste."[96]

> In 2009, Hansen wrote an open letter to President Obama where he advocated a "Moratorium and phase-out of coal plants that do not capture and store CO2".[93] In his first book Storms of My Grandchildren, similarly, Hansen discusses his Declaration of Stewardship, the first principle of which requires "a moratorium on coal-fired power plants that do not capture and sequester carbon dioxide

So disagreeing on nuclear vs renewables is very minor in the big scheme of things. He was wrong about carbon capture and storage for the same reason, renewables got cheap enough that it no longer made financial sense to do on a large scale.

If you don't believe the wind and solar costs, then obviously you'd come to other conclusions, but you'd be wrong. Just as if you thought tidal or geothermal was going to be as big as solar and wind. But in places where tidal or geothermal makes sense, all the other policies work to support it so it's all good. We were right to try all these technologies to see which one worked out, they probably all have useful niches still.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure that’s true. Electricity generation is pretty regional, so it’s not like we can use a region’s hydro capacity to store energy for other regions. It can store energy for the region that already has hydro, but that region already has hydro so it probably needs less storage in the first place?

New York just approved $5 billion to import Canadian Hydro. This is already done on various smaller scales in the US and across the globe. People in Norway are being riled up by their right wing parties because they are selling hydro electricity (and gas) at a high profit to the rest of Europe via connections because of the Russian situation, and there's nothing the right-wing hates more than market-based price signa…

There is no need for that "right-wing" snub there, the same is happening here in Sweden where power prices in the middle and south have been going through the roof even though power generation costs have mostly [1] been unchanged due to the majority of power generation coming from hydroelectric plants (the north) and nuclear plants (the south). Prices have shot up in the south of Sweden because that part of the country is connected to the European grid and exports power generated in the north. Sweden is divided into 4 price regions, the price difference between the top 2 regions and the bottom 2 tends to be enormous. The explanation for the price difference is supposed to be the lack of power generation capacity in the south [see 1, again] while the north and middle have an excess of generating capacity but supposedly lack the network capacity to export this power to the south. That this is not correct is shown by the fact that the power actually is exported through the network [2] and from there finds its way to consumers both in Sweden as well as in neighbouring countries. The majority of the price difference is found between region SE2 and SE3 with power in SE3 often being several times more expensive than in SE2 (currently at €27/MHh in SE2, €525/MWh in SE3 for a factor of 20) with the proceedings of that differential going to the state. Everyone in Sweden paid for the creation of the power infrastructure but those living in the south get to pay dearly due to this artificial price difference.

[1] thanks to the "green party" shutting down half of the nuclear capacity the top load oil-fired power plant in Karlshamn which used to run only during the coldest periods of winter is now running in the heart of summer, consuming between 70 m³ and 140m³ of oil per hour - it has been running for more hours this year than it ran for the last 10 years combined. Oil did get more expensive but Karlshamn still only produces a tiny fraction of power delivered here

[2] https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#316
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As opposed to fossil fuels, famously free of geopolitical nightmares.

You can store oil. In significant quantity. You can't store electricity in the same way, easiness and quantity. So in case of a war you still have, any country still have months of oil reserves, very little electricity reserves in the form of pumped hydro, fossils and nuclear powers. Not only: a electricity grid disruption is almost instantaneous, oil&gas issue takes at least days and can be foreseeable in months and…

>You can store oil. In significant quantity.

>Did you consider how strategical targets became such networks?

All your numbers and calculations are background noise when you can't keep your fundamental concerns coherent.

Edit: Let me say that I see where you're coming from--I get the concern about large, low inertia systems, the ww2 partisans, the need for self reliance. But that ship has sailed. Russia is currently beating the bricks off Germany with the Nordstream. Saudi Arabia has been 'a murdering and 'a terrorizing for the better part of a century on the basis of their petroleum reserves.

I buy that renewables won't pay for the whole party, but it's also undeniable that renewables, in their various and sundry forms, are much more evenly distributed (globally, if not locally) and are therefore much less prone to the kind of exploitative power structures that have already arrived. All other economic considerations aside.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Note it's a common thing for "pro-fossil fuel" advocates to show "peaks" without enough context. Usually what looks like a peak on a daily basis is in fact a drop in the bucket compared with the yearly peak. I'm not pro-fossil, rather the opposite. I'm anti-fossil (GHG in general) fuel, and want us to use all production methods available that allow us to gut GHG emissions, including solar, wind AND nuclear. Eventua…

(I agree with almost all of your comment.) I don’t agree that fossil fuel should be “taxed at a high enough level to make sure both nuclear and renewable investments have a chance of being profitable”, but do agree that it should be taxed significantly higher. (If the outcome of that is that renewables have a chance to compete, great. But if there was a renewable that needed a $50/gallon tax to be competitive, it doe…

> $50/gallon tax to be competitive

At that level, nuclear would be much, much cheaper. Also, there could be a "net tax" system where renewables AND nuclear would get some of those taxes as price subsidies. Let's say that fossil fuels were to be disadvantaged by $X per unit of pollution (lets say 1 unit would be the pollution from 1 ton of natural gas). To prevent all of that disadvantage, one could lower it by $Y (for ($X-$Y)/unit pollutant, and at the same time subsidize nuclear and renewables by $Y per unit of pollutant it displaced.

That way, the competitive advantage would still be $X, but Y could be set high enough that net taxes would stay the same as today.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over idle already is a real issue. Who is going to build a hydrogen generator or data center with a 80% idle time, operating only 12-4 PM?

Anyone for whom the ROCE is better than 1% (per the given scenario). I doubt that data centers will be built, but there are other uses beside hydrogen -> ammonia->urea. Desalination, for instance. Carbon capture, to make money in the carbon credit markets. Even at 4 hours a day, mechanical capture with plausible costs can compete with forests.

I sincerely hope it gets there. My understanding is that carbon capture equipment isn't currently economically viable with 100% uptime

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I agree with almost all of your comment.) I don’t agree that fossil fuel should be “taxed at a high enough level to make sure both nuclear and renewable investments have a chance of being profitable”, but do agree that it should be taxed significantly higher. (If the outcome of that is that renewables have a chance to compete, great. But if there was a renewable that needed a $50/gallon tax to be competitive, it doe…

> $50/gallon tax to be competitive At that level, nuclear would be much, much cheaper. Also, there could be a "net tax" system where renewables AND nuclear would get some of those taxes as price subsidies. Let's say that fossil fuels were to be disadvantaged by $X per unit of pollution (lets say 1 unit would be the pollution from 1 ton of natural gas). To prevent all of that disadvantage, one could lower it by $Y (fo…

I'm philosophically opposed to referencing it to "whatever amount would be required to make renewables competitive" but more aligned to "whatever amount represents the true costs, including externalities" (and making the same levies against renewables as well, for mining externalities, waste disposal, etc). Or true costs plus a small margin to ensure there's a nudge.

I don't mind people being exposed to the true cost of their energy; I want that. I don't want to get into picking winners and losers by referencing them to economics of an unrelated power source.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Note it's a common thing for "pro-fossil fuel" advocates to show "peaks" without enough context. Usually what looks like a peak on a daily basis is in fact a drop in the bucket compared with the yearly peak. I'm not pro-fossil, rather the opposite. I'm anti-fossil (GHG in general) fuel, and want us to use all production methods available that allow us to gut GHG emissions, including solar, wind AND nuclear. Eventua…

Wind power is cheap. This has been true for over a decade. It's not a conspiracy (unless you count the fossil fuel companies and their pet politicians lying about everything for decades, and literally profiting from misery and death). You have to really try hard to make renewables and nuclear enemies, but a lot of money has been spent on that as it became more obvious that renewables were a good idea and a threat to…

> If you don't believe the wind and solar costs, then obviously you'd come to other conclusions, but you'd be wrong.

If I'm wrong and you're right, then I have no problem with that, although from what I've seen, the various green movements in Europe have attacked nuclear almost exclusively for ideological reasons, not economic ones.

I still believe that if we give nuclear an equal playing field to other energy forms when it comes to safety standards, other environmental regulations and allow them to be built efficiently by private companies without unnecessary red tape, prices will come down enough for them to be competitive.

Likewise, it seems to me that efforts to fully cover the grid with wind power (particularly in climates where solar is still expensive) has met with problems that have been partly covered up by proponents, and that this has contributed to increased prices, at least in Europe.

But if honest analysis proves me wrong, then I see no problem with that, just as long as it is really the economical side, not ideological ideas that the true reason for future prioritizations.

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