311–320 of 441 posts
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> The problem you then face is that any of those could be forged / faked without some kind of way of securely validating the message in some way. You could cause absolute chaos by driving down the road broadcasting false messages. Sounds like a job for...blockchain.
What value would blockchain bring to solving this problem?
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> As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. I agree. As a former owner. They are fun to show. But there are real annoyances. In the case of the Model 3 in particular, I quickly tired of the door handles. The psychotic windshield wipers. No CarPlay. The smartphone unlocking which worked most of the time until just that moment when your hands were full. It became a chore…
Given your experiences, I'm curious about your and parent's feedback on the following: * What are your current top alternative make / models? * If you have some you're tracking, which make / models are you most anticipating?
I'm keeping an eye on Kia, VW, Hyundai right now. But I expect other manufacturers will catch up.
Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…
FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…
Tesla has been collecting thousands of dollars, each, from car buyers and utterly failing to deliver what it represented, and keeping the money year after year. Would be let GM, Toyota, or Audi do this? Where is the criminal prosecution? Where are the refunds?
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I agree that the EV tech stack is easy. EV retro fits illustrate how simple EV's are. But that's not the part that matters. What matters is if you can make an outsized profit building and selling EV's. Legacy auto can't, Tesla can. Tesla is very vertically integrated so they can eek out extra margin that others can't. They also aren't inhibited by the existing dealer / service / financing model. So what I'm saying is…
I was with you in my 4 years of Tesla ownership but having researched & sampled the competition I just can't agree anymore. Tesla has gone down a cul-de-sac with FSD to the point that there's plenty of equally competent highway "self driving", which is all 99% of people actually need/want. Further Tesla is extremely focussed on SKU minimization .. very few models with very few options. Tesla only has 4 cars which are…
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Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”
> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.
To be fair he'd only have to hit the FTL goal and then FTL can be used as a time machine.
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Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…
> Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem? Because it's really, really difficult. A lot of AI-ish stuff pretty rapidly gets to the point where it _looks_ quite impressive, but struggles to make the jump to actual feasibility. Like, there were convincing demos of voice recognition in the mid-90s. You could buy software to transcribe voice on your home computer, and people did. And, now, well, it's be…
Is this the fault of software or people generally frequently using bad sound equipment in poor and noisy conditions, such as talking on the phone while driving, on the street, poor connection, wind/rain, etc. ?
Personally, because English isn't my first language, I frequently "fail" to transcribe what is being said and have to ask the other person to repeat themselves. It seems like an AI voice transcriber in 2022 is going to work better than me.
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The incumbents will defend that market segment to their death indeed. Tesla is pulling a 30% gross margin on their EV's, while legacy auto looses money on their EV's. I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. The fall can cascade quickly, as the incumbents are stuffed with debt. When sales of ICE fall due to the growing EV segm…
> I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. That doesn't make any sense. "Legacy auto" knows how to make cars. To their final assembly factories there's not a huge difference between a BEV, PHEV, or an ICE drive train. So long as they feed in components they get cars out. They definitely know how to get components made to feed…
That's the problem. When they do it that way, they don't make a profit on BEV's. "Legacy auto" got good at building the supply chain network for parts. Then they pick and choose and assemble into a car. But everyone is taking a slice, and it's hard to optimize designs for efficiency between so many suppliers. Then they have their dealers to contend with.
What i'm saying is that "legacy auto" can certainly build and sell a BEV like they do with ICE. And it's not too hard for them to make that change, baring battery supply challenges. But they don't have the 30% gross margin that Tesla does. That margin will continue to grow and then turn into a weapon when Tesla needs to be competitive.
Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…
Tesla filed with the FCC in May to get authorization for a new radar system.
Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…
FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…
I think that's optimistic. Ten plus years.
There's too many exceptions. In my home town, an intersection. Imagine, if you will:
Traveling westbound there's four straight ahead lanes. There's a traffic light for each straight lane. The traffic lights will alternate "left two straight, green; right two straight red" and then "left two straight, red; right two, green". It does this because there's a tunnel and a roundabout right there. I guarantee that FSD will choke on this.
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> doesn't seem any better at solving it I thought they had real self-driving taxis in Pheonix that you can order? Real ones, with no safety driver. That definitely sounds "better", even if it is heavily geo-fenced.
Yeah, but I am sure Tesla's software can do the same. Depending on the route, you could probably even do it with comma.ai hardware. When I think of FSD, I think any route under any condition.
They absolutely cannot. They won't even try, they require a driver to be there to be ready to take over with no notice. Their software also makes so many basic mistakes that even what they're allowing it to do is dangerously reckless.