When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

Post by qznc » Sun, May 08, 2022, 2:25 PM UTC

bushbaba wrote: post #74

tsimionescu wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that global warming will cause the global economy to contract one way or another within the next 100 years (either we willingly contract to soften the blow, or keep going and producing more greenhouse gases until a massive crash), I really don't think this is the right time to think in these terms.

Wouldn’t global warming increase asset price in many areas. Food will be more expensive. Housing more expensive. Green Energy is more expensive. Just look at Germany and California electrical rates. I don’t see how it’ll reduce prices

Post by [deleted] » Sun, May 08, 2022, 2:57 PM UTC

zmgsabst wrote: post #310

gabereiser wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just described a hobbyist. Institutions don’t sit on cash for that long, nor do they buy S&P in any significance. [0] Berkshire Hathaway - https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK

Yes — I called it ironic because a hobbyist sitting on cash out performed the market over the past six months. Institutions “making moves” aren’t magic — and often fail to beat indexes, which in turn failed to beat cash over the past six months. Sometimes the hobbyist mindset wins.

Post by eastbound » Sun, May 08, 2022, 3:05 PM UTC

jokethrowaway wrote: post #161

eastbound wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Juicero was the mirror product, then: An overpriced orange juice machine, with little packets that you can only buy on subscription, but can’t suspend while on holidays, with a QR code to prevent you from consuming after your holidays. It is also down if it can’t reach the Wifi. It showed that you can overcharge and make everything become a cloud subscription, because money was unlimited on the consumer side this tim…

While I can see luxury food delivery kind-of working (wealthy workers in the office ordering lunch, wealthy home workers ordering lunch, fitness nuts who want calories and good food without cooking), Juicero was just plain ridiculous. Competition from local supermarket is too strong. I can get freshly squeezed juice from the store machine anytime I want for cheap.

Post by redisman » Sun, May 08, 2022, 3:15 PM UTC

pastaguy1 wrote: post #289

Retric wrote: post #281

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Notice you said disposable income rather than income, there is a huge difference. But I think people recognize the housing bubble that popped in 2008 as a bubble. Saying we haven’t reached the peak of the last bubble doesn’t mean we aren’t in a bubble.

There were structural/regulatory reasons that helped the bubble grow last time, are there any indications of this now? If they are there we probably won't know until it's too late, but this housing bubble feels a little more like an everything bubble

Post by redisman » Sun, May 08, 2022, 3:24 PM UTC

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #199

fny wrote: post #10

Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing dissuaded capital from financing the real economy and instead encouraged herding and levering up in the financial economy for returns. At ever dip, it was an op…

> The COVID fiscal canon blew growth and inflation skyward. COVID is going on for two years now. What really changed is the Russia-Ukraine war, this goes with higher energy and higher food prices (most of the wheat and fertilizers come from that part of the world) that all that stuff trickles down, as they don't know how to fix the metrics now (i guess no one was prepared for such a turn of events...) Most of the met…