311–320 of 372 posts
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> Software scales. People like to make money. Combine the two and its a real winner. There were plenty of tech losers. You still had to pick the winners. > Physics based thinking. I knew electric cars were going to work because the math checked out. Electric cars were obvious, but Tesla was not an obvious play. In hindsight, it might seem so, but in the beginning it was far from clear that Tesla would dominate the sp…
>Electric cars were obvious, but Tesla was not an obvious play. In hindsight, it might seem so, but in the beginning it was far from clear that Tesla would dominate the space. Additionally, time will tell if Tesla's stock stays 8x higher than its pre-pandemic price. Tesla's stock price isn't really related to the fundamentals. It's a meme stock that, as you note, benefited hugely from the increased retail interest in…
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Example to clarify: Buyer tells the trader to buy for (up to) 140. Seller wants to sell for (at least) 120. Trader gives 120 to seller, gets 140 from buyer, gets to keep 20 for himself.
Yes, and that's exactly how the middle man is compensated for the risk they take by buying something from someone they don't want, hoping to resell it shortly after.
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People keep telling me this, but I keep beating the market. It's been 20 years or so of applying very basic reasoning and getting ahead. 1. Commodities are bad long term bets because technology gets better. I remember people talking my ear off about peak oil and then the US turned into a net-exporter. Short term inelasticity, yes can sky rocket prices; but long term prices go down. 2. Physics based thinking. I knew e…
> 1. Commodities are bad long term bets because technology gets better. I remember people talking my ear off about peak oil and then the US turned into a net-exporter. Short term inelasticity, yes can sky rocket prices; but long term prices go down. You can make money on things that go down as long as they are not too strongly correlated with other things, and you maintain a constant fraction portfolio. One of the se…
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> The second big disruption is efficiency. AC motors have regen, their motors are ~90% efficient. This creates the new generation of car. A model 3 performance(inexpensive sedan) has a 0-60 of 3.2 seconds. That's faster than all production Corvettes. Faster than a Hellcat. As fast as a Mclaren F1 from back in the day. About as fast as a Nissan GTR or Porsche 911. All the while not being annoying loud, far more practi…
>meh. even cheap hot hatches are close to being too fast to fully use on public roads these days. the race to ever quicker 0-60 times is incredibly boring and misguided imo. currently drive a hot hatch. Can confirm this. The magic number for me is probably around 4.5s. Anything faster is really not needed. >a model 3 probably is superior to a hellcat in every measurable way, I'll give you that. although I doubt most…
I've driven a couple teslas as well as porsches and amgs. the instant torque from an EV is a very cool feeling, but to me it's not enough to offset the refinement and handling feel of the current best ICEs. I found the interior and overall fit and finish of the teslas I've been in to be quite poor for the price. if you're not tearing away from every stoplight, I guess I don't see why you would get a car like that as a driving enthusiast. I think the real appeal will come when the prices drop a bit more and they become the most straightforward way to get from A to B. after all, this is the only real requirement most people have for their vehicles.
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> Software scales. People like to make money. Combine the two and its a real winner. There were plenty of tech losers. You still had to pick the winners. > Physics based thinking. I knew electric cars were going to work because the math checked out. Electric cars were obvious, but Tesla was not an obvious play. In hindsight, it might seem so, but in the beginning it was far from clear that Tesla would dominate the sp…
> Let's naively assume that you actually can pick stocks. At $10Bn - you need to pick more stocks - otherwise you would drive up the price too much in buying that much of the stock This refrain is common enough, but I don't think it really bears out in the math. Elon just sold $16B worth of stock and the price barely budged. If you've got enough alpha to work with every beta seller out there will hop off and it's wel…
Got it.
Step #1 - pick good stocks.
Step #2 - have perfect timing.
This is a great article that explains markets (not just the stock market really) in an easy to understand way. The one thing I believe people should know about the stock market is: There are people with more capital, time, and knowledge than you who will consistently beat you. Picking individual investments is mostly a sucker's game. Buying tech stocks and/or crypto in the last couple of years has been a consistent e…
>So my advice to anyone who already got rich from their investments in the last couple of years: Congratulations! Now take that money, invest it in the most boring thing possible, and enjoy life. To everyone who is trying to get rich quick now: Do your thing I guess, but be aware that you're gambling. That right there is the best advice. If you want to get rich quick, you're going to have to make some calculated bets…
Don't fool yourself into that, but as the Kelly criterion advises, do play harder with house money.
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>Electric cars were obvious, but Tesla was not an obvious play. In hindsight, it might seem so, but in the beginning it was far from clear that Tesla would dominate the space. Additionally, time will tell if Tesla's stock stays 8x higher than its pre-pandemic price. Tesla's stock price isn't really related to the fundamentals. It's a meme stock that, as you note, benefited hugely from the increased retail interest in…
I agree it's a meme stock now, but it wasn't always a meme stock. There was a time where it was severely undervalued and that's when I bought. I did not hold it all the way to the top. I sold it way before then.
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People keep telling me this, but I keep beating the market. It's been 20 years or so of applying very basic reasoning and getting ahead. 1. Commodities are bad long term bets because technology gets better. I remember people talking my ear off about peak oil and then the US turned into a net-exporter. Short term inelasticity, yes can sky rocket prices; but long term prices go down. 2. Physics based thinking. I knew e…
> It's been 20 years or so of applying very basic reasoning Would note that we’ve been in about a single interest rate regime for almost precisely that amount of time.
Almost none of the posts talk about what investing traditionally has been for-- buying future cash flows at a current discount. Sign of the times....
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Dude I used to work at a hedge fund, the whole efficient market hypothesis isn’t what you think, and it’s insane to think it means you need to buy every single stock. You’re just going to lose a bunch of money investing this way
>Dude I used to work at a hedge fund, the whole efficient market hypothesis isn’t what you think Oh? Please elaborate. >and it’s insane to think it means you need to buy every single stock. US "total market" only have about 2000-3000 stocks. >You’re just going to lose a bunch of money investing this way How? By buying losers? By wasting money on transaction fees?