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The history of the end of poverty has just begun

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Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#311
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world has limited natural resources, but it doesn't have limited human welfare or enjoyment or wealth. Moreover, natural resources are not consumed, except for helium, energy, and the contents of spacecraft. The natural resources in a big plate glass window are a double handful of sand. The natural resources in a Rembrandt are the sunlight and rainfall needed to grow a sheaf of flax and a handful of powdered colo…

The natural ressources to maintain the cost of living in a rich country like mine (denmark) is so high, that it is impossible to imagine all the people in the world maintaining a similar living standard. Im talking not only the glass in my windows, but my energyconsumption, my use of fridges, phones, tvs and so on, all of which costs not only the ressources it costs to manufacture them, but also the entire system bui…

This is a common set of misconceptions, so I'll try to explain why they're wrong.

The people of India and China can absolutely maintain a lifestyle with your energy consumption and use of manufactured luxury goods without causing ecological damage.

80% of electricity produced in Denmark is renewables, mostly wind. Historically, renewable energy other than hydroelectric and low-efficiency wind had a poor EROEI, so it wasn't really a viable alternative to fossil fuels, more like an extremely compact battery that had to be "charged" with fossil fuels and then required sunlight or wind to "discharge". That hasn't been true for 20 years, though, and EROEI keeps getting better as PERC gets adopted, PV cells get thinner, tracking gets cheaper, windmill rotors get bigger, etc.

But only a small minority of the energy used in Denmark is electric, about 15%, which is lower than in many other countries. About 10% of the rest is waste heat, and the other three quarters is currently fossil fuels. Replacing those fossil fuels will require not only increasing renewable energy production by a factor of 6 but also converting a substantial fraction of that energy into easily transportable fuels such as ammonia, biodiesel, propane, or aluminum, in order to power things which cannot practically run off the power grid like ships, airplanes, and long-distance trucks. That fuel does not need to be produced locally in Denmark; it can be produced, for example, in China, Australia, or Tunisia, and exported to Denmark.

Increasing renewable energy production by a factor of 6 may sound daunting, but worldwide solar and wind energy production doubles about every 3 years, so that transition will probably take about 5-10 years. The cost of PV and wind energy is now far below the cost of fossil-fuel energy in most of the world, although in Denmark in particular PV is not economically competitive with fossil fuels yet. The available solar resource is about four orders of magnitude larger than world marketed energy consumption, and I think the wind resource is about one or two orders of magnitude larger.

Cheap labor is not critical to manufacturing goods; if it were you'd be importing your fridges, phones, and TVs from Bangladesh and Malaysia, not China and South Korea. (Open up a recent cellphone or TV sometime and look at the country names printed on the chips.) Modern manufacturing is highly automated, and the non-automated part is highly skilled. As you're surely aware, Nokia made their phones in Finland until only a couple of decades ago. Moreover, cheap labor does not create ecological damage, only human failure to thrive.

You could imagine an economy in which the labor productivity of goods like fridges, phones, and TVs was so low that the people who made them would be unable to afford them. This is the case, for example, with skyscrapers: it takes hundreds or thousands of person-years of effort to build a skyscraper, so it would be impossible to pay each of the construction workers enough money to buy a skyscraper of their own. (An attempt to do so would raise the cost of skyscrapers by a factor of 100 or more, back out of their reach.) As should be obvious, this is very much not the case with fridges, phones, and TVs, whose labor cost is measured in person-days per instance, not person-centuries. Paying the workers Denmark wages instead of China wages would not render the production of fridges, phones, and TVs uneconomic; it would just make them more expensive. Even in Bangladesh, where many people live on US$3 per day, it is common already for people to own fridges, phones, and TVs, a situation that will only improve further when Bangladeshis are not denied the opportunities they are today. Whatever you have been told, your standard of living does not rest on exploiting the poor in faraway countries.

Shipping and transport are not a significant part of the resource usage of supplying you with fridges, phones, and TVs; shipping a TEU halfway around the world costs up to about US$7500 (though "return" rates, like from Los Angeles to Shanghai, can be as low as US$700, because the objective is just to get the container back to China, and the more usual cost is US$1000-US$2000 over the last ten years; see https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2021ch3...). A TEU weighs 24 tonnes, of which normally 21.6 tonnes is payload, giving a cost of US$0.35 per kg (and more realistically half that because of the return-cost thing). Part of that cost is the cost of fuel, which is the only resource cost of shipping. At the moment crude oil costs US$86/bbl, which means that if all of that US$0.35 went to fuel, and the fuel were unrefined crude rather than diesel and kerosene, it would buy 650 g of crude oil. That's 27 MJ/kg or 7.5 kilowatt hours per kg.

So if your fridge weighs 200 kg and uses 1000 kWh per year, running it for a year and a half is guaranteed to use more energy than it took to ship it to you from China. Because most of the cost of shipping is not actually fuel, a more realistic number is probably three months. But you will probably use that fridge for 10 years, and it is very likely that manufacturing it took more energy as well.

You can strongly bound the energy use of the whole manufacturing process in the same way. A new fridge costs about US$250 retail, which means it can't possibly require more than 2.9 barrels of oil to make it, and that only if the costs for things like labor, steel, and taxes were literally zero. 2.9 barrels of oil burned for energy is 18 MJ, 4900 kilowatt hours, though typically only 40% of that can be used for useful manufacturing things like turning motors and electrolyzing aluminum. In California with its 29% PV capacity factor, 2000 watts (peak) of solar panels produces 18 MJ every year, all high-quality electric energy, not low-grade heat. That's 10 square meters of solar panels costing under US$400. So, you can see why renewables are taking over.

This is also how you can know that your US$250 fridge doesn't require person-years of effort from a labor force in Bangladesh, even without going there. Bangladesh's per-capita GDP is US$2500 per person per year, nominal, and its Gini coefficient is a reasonable 0.39, so at most that fridge could be a couple of person-months of work, including all the components. (But in fact it was probably made in China, US$14000 per person per year, or South Korea, US$35000 per person per year, and with lower inequality.)

They might have to eat less beef, pork, tuna, herring, and mackerel, and burn less biofuels than you do, though. Those may be renewable but environmentally they are catastrophic.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#312
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today, America's poor have a better quality of life than medieval kings. And work two jobs and go bankrupt and die of some treatable disease? I'd rather be poor in any european country or Korea or Japan. Besides, that's a pretty cheeky comparison.

> I'd rather be poor in any european country Bulgaria welcomes you

Bulgaria has free healthcare and university education. People in Bulgaria are also very unlikely to be killed by police or die in a mass shooting. Bulgaria also has less people incarcerated per capita than the US. Bulgarian workers get mandatory 20 day of PTO a year.

I could imagine lot of people who would think they are better off there than in the US.

E: There's of course a lot of things that aren't great about Bulgaria - it is probably the least developed and most corrupt EU country - but since US is very unequal, it depends whether your baseline is millionaire FAANG software engineer or minority person working in Walmart.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Star Trek TNG is very clearly post-scarcity. It fits the definition completely, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy --- Post-scarcity is a theoretical economic situation in which most goods can be produced in great abundance with minimal human labor needed, so that they become available to all very cheaply or even freely --- Post-scarcity does not require all goods/services to be infinitely abunda…

In the US today a bushel of wheat (60 pounds) is worth $7.50 and contains about a month's worth of calories, for about half an hour worth of the average American's labour. Chinese factories produce widgets for pennies. Under that definiton either both the 24th and the 22nd centuries are post-scarcity or neither are. Trekonomics writer Manu Saadia has a much better definition: "Post-scarcity is not so much a matter of…

> Under that definiton either both the 24th and the 22nd centuries are post-scarcity or neither are.

Not at all. People need much more that wheat and widgets.

> "Post-scarcity is not so much a matter of material wealth or natural bounty, but an organizational option for society".

No doubt. Also, a lot of consumption and therefore scarcity is induced by culture.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today, America's poor have a better quality of life than medieval kings. And work two jobs and go bankrupt and die of some treatable disease? I'd rather be poor in any european country or Korea or Japan. Besides, that's a pretty cheeky comparison.

There weren't treatable diseases in medieval times, even if you were king. You either recovered on your own, or you died.

That's the cheeky part of the comparison. Cherry-picking two distant points in time and two very specific categories of people.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#315
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USDA defines[1] food insecurity to include the following: >Food Insecurity >Low food security (old label=Food insecurity without hunger): reports of reduced quality, variety, or desirability of diet. Little or no indication of reduced food intake. People in other countries would scratch their heads at the very concept of "food insecurity without hunger". [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistan…

There are two levels of food insecurity described in your source. Why did you only quote the one? Very low food security—In these food-insecure households, normal eating patterns of one or more household members were disrupted and food intake was reduced at times during the year because they had insufficient money or other resources for food. 3.9 percent (5.1 million) of U.S. households had very low food security at…

>Why did you only quote the one?

Because it is the part that is the most misleading about this statistic.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#316

Could we classify the lives in tribes and villages prior to civilisation as "poverty"? Or did "poverty" begin with civilisation?

This is exactly what I had in mind, thanks for asking. Are those tribes who are still living a secluded life in the forests of Amazon or say even those who are completely isolated like in Indian ocean islands considered poor? They've had everything they need and unless there's no external interference(Humans, Weather events e.g. Tsunami) they're living a successful life. Also I have serious issues with the term 'Civi…

That seems like a simple question - yes, they are poor. It would be miserable and horrific, and they'd be happy every day they were healthy because it would be a pleasant surprise.

And there is nothing romantic about being poor and ignorant at the same time. Even if hot running water is now considered a colonial luxury.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US today a bushel of wheat (60 pounds) is worth $7.50 and contains about a month's worth of calories, for about half an hour worth of the average American's labour. Chinese factories produce widgets for pennies. Under that definiton either both the 24th and the 22nd centuries are post-scarcity or neither are. Trekonomics writer Manu Saadia has a much better definition: "Post-scarcity is not so much a matter of…

> Under that definiton either both the 24th and the 22nd centuries are post-scarcity or neither are. Not at all. People need much more that wheat and widgets. > "Post-scarcity is not so much a matter of material wealth or natural bounty, but an organizational option for society". No doubt. Also, a lot of consumption and therefore scarcity is induced by culture.

> People need much more that wheat and widgets

Infinitely more, according to orthodox economics, which is why post-scarcity is not a coherent concept within the framework of orthodox economics. The idea that there is a point of finite abundance where the basic relations of economics break down is, at best, highly speculative and completely undemonstrated.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#318
> I calculated that at a minimum the world economy needs to increase five-fold for global poverty to substantially decline. This is in a scenario in which the world would also achieve a massive reduction in inequality: inequality between all the world’s countries would disappear entirely in this scenario. It should therefore be seen as a calculation of the minimum necessary growth for an end of poverty.

> A five-fold increase of the global economy is certainly not easy to achieve, but it is also not impossible – it is what the world has achieved in the last 5 decades, and the climate researchers of the IPCC expect even more growth for this century in their ‘Sustainability Scenario’, the scenario in which the world is most successful in avoiding climate change.

Surprising that such an increase would be what is needed in order to avoid climate change. I would have thought that those two things were in conflict.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's definitely true but we have some heavier examples than the ones you listed and at the same time massive natural resources which include iron (and many other metals), hydro and timber as well as significant local value generation in high-tech and services. The lack of inequality comes definitely from the very strong labor movement though. > The main industries include motor vehicles, telecommunications,…

Volvo - exploits poorly paid non-union workers in countries like Mexico to make cars and/or car parts Ericsson - charges telecom companies a fortune for crappy gear because there's only 2-3 leading edge 5G equipment providers, which in turn makes it more expensive for people to get telecom service H&M - sweatshop labor for clothes manufacturing I only went through the first half but there are a number of companies in…

Yeah, Sweden is anti-progressive. As a worker I pay ~40% income tax and 25% sales tax.

Meanwhile there is no inheritance tax, relatively low capital gains tax (or none on ISK accounts), and low corporation tax.

It's designed to preserve wealth for those who inherit property.

Re: The history of the end of poverty has just begun

#320

It is always nice to see such narratives based on robust data. For similar stories backed by data I can also recommend the book "Factfulnes" by Hans Rosling [1]. When we talk about basic needs, our global community is making tremendous progress. At the same time, we should not forget that the same system that abolishes poverty also creates enormous inequality, which not only makes people unhappier, but also leads to…

> creates enormous inequality i dont know why everyone keeps getting away with statement like this. the proposition of equality as a meaningful metric is absurd at every level of examination. no one is equal to anyone else except on the most trivial and simplistic terms about anything. do you feel inferior to rich people? do you feel superior to poor people? what hogwash. i reject this axiom that inequality is bad. p…

> do you feel inferior to rich people? do you feel superior to poor people? what hogwash. i reject this axiom that inequality is bad.

> people don't hate inequality - they hate unfairness.

You seem to contradict yourself in the span of two paragraphs.

Inequality is OK (according to you) if it is fair. So rich people are superior to poor people?

(It’s not about “feeling” inferior in any case. It’s about having enough money to live. And yes, the interests of the rich often work against the interests of the poor in such a way that the lives of the poor gets to be more and more difficult.)

Or maybe we’re just seeing unfair inequality right now? Well then the distinction doesn’t matter much in any case. When was the last time that inequality was fair?

Rich people are created off the backs of relatively poor people, i.e. the working class. To a large degree, rich people need other people to be relatively poor in order to maintain their wealth. Why do you think that businesses hate when workers organize for better pay and conditions? I guess they should be fine with it if the inequality was “fair”…

Bah. Maybe my reading comprehension is off.

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