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Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

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Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#311
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The appropriate course is to sue the other driver directly and ignore the insurance company. Yes, that's how you formally sue in an accident. It's not the hack you think it is, though, the insurance company defends the lawsuit, that's part of the insurance agreement. It's also specifically what OP was unwilling to do which resulted in the insurance company not paying, and why any “the judge should...” is missing th…

Lawyers can’t represent clients in some small claims courts. And often just filing is enough for them to do the math and just pay out. Sure, it’s not fair, but that’s why we have courts in the first place.

> Lawyers can’t represent clients in some small claims courts.

Which, given that the OP resides in California and was unwilling to pursue legal action in Texas because of inconvenience, isn't really helpful.

> And often just filing is enough for them to do the math and just pay out.

Yes, even just hinting at willingness to file a claim probably would have gotten the insurance company to settle in this case. That’s been the whole argument from the beginning.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#312
post #177
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The claim I was defending was that the way auto liability insurance is done is a scam Seems like it's working as intended? The purpose of auto liability insurance is to... insure the policyholder from liability. If you're not the policyholder, it's not working for you. If you're a policy and you're not experiencing losses stemming from your liability (ie. you crashed your own car), it's not covered. Others in this t…

I thought I addressed exactly that in my original reply It’s not really working if and when once side is incentivized not to pay when they can and are obviously at fault. Your comment is like saying “yeah that corporation used a natural pond as a toxic waste dump, so what? Corporations are supposed to make a profit, right?” Yes, they are … subject to other social desiderata like respecting others’ rights. You seem to…

> thought I addressed exactly that in my original reply It’s not really working if and when once side is incentivized not to pay when they can and are obviously at fault.

That's not auto insurance that's the underlying legal system, and it's not the feature of the underlying legal system that mandatory liability insurance exists to address.

The intent of mandatory liability insurance is to fix a specific problem: a liable party might not have the resources to pay even a moderate damage claim if found liable. That's what mandatory liability insurance exists to address. That is the whole intent.

If you want to fix the “problem” that people aren't incentivized to proactively pay expected liabilities even when there is a clear indication that the party to whom they would be owed is not willing to pursue them in court, well, you are certainly free to propose a solution, though I don’t expect that there is one that doesn't have more adverse effects than benefits. And, in any case, that's not what mandatory auto liability insurance is designed to address.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#313
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Hot take: if it's something that's universally a good thing that should be required of every driver, it should be provided by the state and paid for with taxes / annual registration fees. >Otherwise, it's just an income-generating scheme for private parties. Food and shelter are essentially "required" for everyone. Should those be provided by the state, to avoid it being "an income-generating scheme for private part…

If they said "yes" to that they wouldn't be the first in history with that answer.

And we all know how well that worked out.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree completely with your last paragraph. If I wanted to be a data scientist I’d be a data scientist. I don’t want my actuarial organisation wasting time and money trying to market us as “data scientists” when we are not data scientists. It’s a completely different job. It’s almost comparable to the profession deciding that we should now market ourselves as lawyers because we also contribute to writing contracts a…

> I would argue though that being an actuary doesn’t automatically make you bad at anything outside of Excel. I agree, I just think it's statistically a net negative signal if conditioned only on years of experience. I would expect a generic technical BS or MS in a DS-relevant field to be more qualified than someone who passed actuarial exams, if the two are at a similar point in their careers. That said, competent e…

Keep in mind that the actuaries who apply for data science jobs are a heavily self-selecting subset. Among the candidates who apply for data science positions, I think actuarial credentials are a strongly positive signal on business acumen (especially but not only in insurance) and a weakly positive signal on quantitative skills relevant to the generic technical BS or MS degree holder at the same level of experience.

I agree that the median actuary would do poorly in data science, mostly because they don't have the programming ability for it. But the median actuary isn't trying to be a data scientist, so that's not who you care about if you're hiring for a data science position.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#315
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Hot take: if it's something that's universally a good thing that should be required of every driver, it should be provided by the state and paid for with taxes / annual registration fees. >Otherwise, it's just an income-generating scheme for private parties. Food and shelter are essentially "required" for everyone. Should those be provided by the state, to avoid it being "an income-generating scheme for private part…

>Food and shelter are essentially "required" for everyone. Should those be provided by the state, to avoid it being "an income-generating scheme for private parties"? The answer is: yes, absolutely, and we essentially do that to some extent with food stamps and homeless shelters; but, of course, not nearly to the extend that we can and should. Shelter isn't just "required" in scare quotes, though; it's illegal to be…

>>Food and shelter are essentially "required" for everyone. Should those be provided by the state, to avoid it being "an income-generating scheme for private parties"?

>The answer is: yes, absolutely, and we essentially do that to some extent with food stamps and homeless shelters; but, of course, not nearly to the extend that we can and should.

The programs you described only satisfy the "provided by the state" part, not the "avoid it being an income-generating scheme for private parties" part. If you're arguing it's something like food stamps, then that calls for the state paying insurance premiums on behalf of drivers that can't afford it, not for some sort of government insurance program.

>Shelter isn't just "required" in scare quotes, though; it's illegal to be homeless (you can get charged with loitering, trespassing, etc. if you try living pretty much anywhere where you're not paying for it some way).

Sounds like it's actually required, both in the sense that in certain areas if you don't have shelter you'll freeze to death, and in the sense that you need somewhere to sleep. The fact that you can get a place to sleep by violating other people's property rights, or commandeering communal resources for your own needs (ie. camping on the sidewalk or public parks) doesn't mean shelter isn't required. You can plausibly feed yourself by stealing from farm fields across america, that doesn't mean food isn't required.

>We all know that the rental market is a scam, since mortgage payments (i.e. what you pay to own the property, plus profit for the bank) is lower than the rent in most markets (sometimes even after adding property taxes on top).

1. source for this? in the hottest markets at least, price to rent ratios are so insane that the only way landlords are making money is through appreciation

2. you forgot to factor in maintenance, and cost of capital

3. the fact that there's a better deal doesn't mean it's a scam. the fact that costco sells 96-roll pack of toilet paper, doesn't mean that the 6-roll pack they sell at regular grocery stores is a "scam". The same applies to rentals. They offer flexibility compared to ownership. factoring in transaction costs, buying houses isn't worth it unless you're planning to stay for years/decades.

4. it's funny you mention mortgages and how banks make profit on them. Are they a scam? surely it must be, because they're selling money to you for more than what they're buying money for (otherwise they wouldn't be making a profit)?

>Note that I am not saying that the state should be the only supplier of shelter, food, healthcare, transportation, and education. Just that it should be one of the players on the free market, with a cost of 0 (or barely above nominal).

>That's how Europe does healthcare and education, and at the very least it shows that we can afford this on a grand scale.

1. yet, even progressive region such as "europe" only does it for healthcare and education, and not shelter, food, and transportation. Why is that?

2. The US already has government provided education. have you heard of public schools and state universities? Seems like the problem with education isn't due to the government not getting involved, it's because government institutions aren't bothering to undercut private ones.

3. "europe" doesn't have a unified policy for healthcare. Yes, there are some countries where there's a healthcare system run by the government (eg. NHS in uk), and there are some that provide government insurance option in addition to private offerings (eg. germany), but there are also countries that have only have private insurance (eg. switzerland).

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would argue though that being an actuary doesn’t automatically make you bad at anything outside of Excel. I agree, I just think it's statistically a net negative signal if conditioned only on years of experience. I would expect a generic technical BS or MS in a DS-relevant field to be more qualified than someone who passed actuarial exams, if the two are at a similar point in their careers. That said, competent e…

Keep in mind that the actuaries who apply for data science jobs are a heavily self-selecting subset. Among the candidates who apply for data science positions, I think actuarial credentials are a strongly positive signal on business acumen (especially but not only in insurance) and a weakly positive signal on quantitative skills relevant to the generic technical BS or MS degree holder at the same level of experience.…

Interesting but hasn't been my experience. I find that actuaries going into DS are what you'd naively expect. They know the stuff that's tested on the exams but have underdeveloped DS skills compared to other quantitative types at the same career stage, especially in coding. I would definitely not describe them as strong in business acumen.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#317
post #146
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you aren't willing to sue over a disputed liability, it might as well not exist. I think this might be at the heart of it. The article (about how hard actuarial math is) and the insurance buyers make the mistake of thinking that all that matters is downside in case of event X with particular probability P. However, instead you have to think about chances of X AND chances of being able to navigate a system that i…

>The article (about how hard actuarial math is) and the insurance buyers make the mistake of thinking that all that matters is downside in case of event X with particular probability P. However, instead you have to think about chances of X AND chances of being able to navigate a system that is outright adversarial to parties that are not the insurance companies. Are people going through and calculating the expected u…

Yes, the expectation was that the risks are those you bought insurance for. Additional protection against being bullied by other insurance companies is not obvious.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that the actuaries who apply for data science jobs are a heavily self-selecting subset. Among the candidates who apply for data science positions, I think actuarial credentials are a strongly positive signal on business acumen (especially but not only in insurance) and a weakly positive signal on quantitative skills relevant to the generic technical BS or MS degree holder at the same level of experience.…

Interesting but hasn't been my experience. I find that actuaries going into DS are what you'd naively expect. They know the stuff that's tested on the exams but have underdeveloped DS skills compared to other quantitative types at the same career stage, especially in coding. I would definitely not describe them as strong in business acumen.

Anecdotally, most of the people I’ve known who’ve switched out of actuarial to data science haven’t been the best.

In most cases it’s been people who couldn’t pass exams, or were missold on what actuarial work actually involves and ended up moving early in their career when they wouldn’t have strong business acumen at all.

The one person who made the switch who I would consider a good actuary went back and did a masters in data science and applied for entry level roles. He had a couple million in the bank and decided he could afford to start over again.

He’s doing well now, he’s in a relatively senior position at a tech company. Financially he’s worse off than he would have been if he continued down the actuarial path, but he enjoys data science work a lot more than his old job and isn’t limited to insurance/pensions/finance.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can just update rates after the fact if necessary. I don't really see the problem with that. People with a bad history may get higher rates, just not based on risk analysis but based on their actual history.

The only way to convert "has a DUI" into a specific rate increase is through risk analysis of everybody with DUIs.

Why is that the only way? Seems to me you could just raise rates after someone caused actual damage instead.

Re: Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test

#320
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It can still be done today in most US states. If by "most" you mean 4 or 5 US States (California, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and maybe West Virginia). That's 10% of states, although more than 10% of the US population (but still a very small minority). Meanwhile, anyone can represent themselves in court, and with sufficient facts on their side have won. However, the Supreme Court no longer allows people to repre…

Even in those states, you can't just show up to the bar exam and ace it. Thost states all requires you to spend four years (i.e., even longer than law school) working/studying under an attorney. Washington even charges "tuition" of $2000/year.

> Thost states all requires you to spend four years (i.e., even longer than law school) working/studying under an attorney. Washington even charges "tuition" of $2000/year.

I did try to to explain that in my OP:

>>>> (some states have just as lengthy apprenticeship periods replace that)

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