Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you’re saying any attempt by a politician to go and talk to homeless people in person - not to get to the root of the cause, but just to listen to them and observe - should be avoided as it’s just a publicity stunt? And what do you mean “ignore the problem”? I directly quoted his conclusion which included “we should do more to house them”. Can you point to a conclusion of his where he actively sought to ignore the…
I believe he is trying to say that 1) drawing conclusions from the one-time observations of a single individual is unlikely to be accurately representative of the actual situation, and is at great risk of all sorts of selection, recall, and confirmation biases. 2) in that context, ignoring all the other managerial responsibilities of a mayoral position so you can engage in a relatively non-scientific attempt at infor…
A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
311–320 of 375 posts
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#312Homelessness is a solved problem. SF residents don't want the solution. Real estate is the primary wealth building asset class of long-term residents who bought property ages ago or inherited it. In California property taxes as assessed at time of sale, so you hold onto properties realistically valued at multiple millions while paying taxes at rate appropriate to tens of thousands. Bulldozing a single family home to…
1350 sf for $599,000 thats $450/sf - wtf. in the ghetto in SF. and the home is a ghetto looking home on the outside with zero land.
I LOVE Joe Rogan shitting all over LA and SF.
The podcast with the author is fantastic to have in the background and listen to.
again, I want to help the homeless with 'Care Fleet' -- See my other comment on that.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not only that north-eastern winters are brutal. There's more to it than that. Yes, NYC housing is very expensive, but that's because Manhattan is the most densely populated island in the world having a population greater than 150,000 people. Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere…
> Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere else in the world. There were more people living in Manhattan in 1920 than 2020 and the average building height was higher then too.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
We should certainly subsidize the building of homes and give them to the homeless (or at least make them very affordable). Can you link to the details of the program in Charlotte? As somebody who is from NC, most home building is driven by for profit developers and it actually increases demand. They target higher end construction since the margins are higher. This is a feedback loop since the increased density of wea…
> most home building... actually increases demand. Is there data supporting this claim? It seems quite extraordinary that supply would create more demand than it satisfies. That's just not how economics usually works. If affluent people from around the country are moving to Charlotte, I would think they're likely drawn by other factors, such as their jobs or family roots bringing them there, not by the mere existence…
This doesn't happen here in the South. I'm aware things are different elsewhere.
What happens is that the historical small / older single family units (i.e. ~50-100 y.o., 1500 SF) are demolished one by one to make room for the highest end housing that can be sold. This occurs across the board. You have teardowns of recently renovated houses that are replaced either by multiple copies of "tall skinny" units (larger size, and upfitted with all the granite etc) or, if the lot can't be carved (or if the area is especially high end) you end up with mega-houses that take on the entire footprint of the lot and go for well over $1M
In all cases the new units go for multiple times what the old house would have gone for a few years ago.
I know why people want to live in places like this. As the density increases amenities are added that make it walkable and pleasant. Now grocery stores can be supported, coffee shops, breweries, etc., which are close enough either to walk to or a short drive. These are the sorts of businesses wealthy out of staters crave. They were not supported by lower income, less dense single family housing.
The roads in these older neighborhoods are ill prepared for increased density, and of course traffic bottles up. This makes it even more imperative that, if you work in a physical office and desire a short-ish commute, you need to buy expensive units that are centrally located. Remote working white-collar and tech workers (with full pockets from selling their homes in even higher value areas) move near the city centers even though they don't have to commute anywhere simply because they want the amenities involved.
Wages for "normal" people who grew up in the region, meanwhile, stagnate. Places that are near the physical locations they go to work are now occupied by wealthy out-of-towners. For locals without the means, they are increasingly pushed to the outer limits of the sprawl, which develops in increasingly distant rings around the urban centers. Commute times start to become stratospheric.
Southern cities almost universally hate public transit, so the congestion builds upon itself, making the QOL consistently worse for the people forced to move further and further out.
I don't have data about how adding more housing designed for rich people enhances this cycle, but I bet you have no data on how adding more housing designed for rich people will do anything to mitigate it, either.
More units are good theoretically, but almost universally people latch onto the deregulation component and fail to advocate for affordability requirements tied to it. If one out of every four "tall skinny" houses was made available at well under market rate to local, low income renters (think something like Habitat for Humanity) then maybe you start getting somewhere.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#315Since I moved out of SF I’ve wondered if there will ever be some public epiphany that with their well-intentioned policies they’ve reinforced what they most wanted to destroy: a society of the haves and have-nots.
The issue is not poverty at all . The issue is addiction. This constant framing of the homeless as dispossessed victims, rather than substance abusers with agency, makes it impossible to solve the issue.
Yes, a small part of homelessness is caused by drug issues (far more drug problems are the consequences of homelessness) but you only have to look at the absence of a proper welfare state, health system, and other essential safety nets, to see why things are so bad.
You want to live in a society without massive social problems, you have to pay a decent amount of tax to support the services that sustain a good society.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#316Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not only that north-eastern winters are brutal. There's more to it than that. Yes, NYC housing is very expensive, but that's because Manhattan is the most densely populated island in the world having a population greater than 150,000 people. Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere…
> Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere else in the world. There were more people living in Manhattan in 1920 than 2020 and the average building height was higher then too.
I didn't know that, but it makes sense, given the immigration and building patterns of the era. There were even more people living in Manhattan in 1910 than in 1920 (over 600,000 more than today).
I'm not sure if this does anything except support the point I am making, though. Can more people be squeezed into Manhattan than are currently living there? Sure. You might not even need to bring back the squalid tenement buildings.
But isn't the primary reason that there are fewer people living in Manhattan today because they tore down the tenements in order to build office towers? Although only 1.6 million people live in Manhattan, during the work day the population swells to almost 4 million when you account for commuting workers.
> and the average building height was higher then too.
I am honestly surprised to read this, and I have trouble believing that it is true. Do you have a source for this?
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#317Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pulling a 2019 source from wikipedia, over 30% of San Francisco's homeless recently came from outside San Francisco, and only 50% had lived in San Francisco longer than 10 years before most recently becoming homeless: https://hsh.sfgov.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019HIRDRep...
That seems like a far cry from the exponential growth described where you house one homeless person and 2 appear.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#318Earlier quoted context omitted.
> most home building... actually increases demand. Is there data supporting this claim? It seems quite extraordinary that supply would create more demand than it satisfies. That's just not how economics usually works. If affluent people from around the country are moving to Charlotte, I would think they're likely drawn by other factors, such as their jobs or family roots bringing them there, not by the mere existence…
> But that's fine, because when you build more high-end housing, then people move up from slightly lesser housing, making that housing available for people to move up to from even lower-end housing, and so on. This eventually makes housing available at the low end of the market for people who couldn't previously afford housing at all -- or perhaps for the government to rent on behalf of homeless people at an acceptab…
> The roads in these older neighborhoods are ill prepared for increased density
Infrastructure is a problem. Many American cities seem to be stuck on 50-year-old (or more) infrastructure and unwilling to fund anything new. But blocking development isn't the right answer, investing in better infrastructure is. Build a damned light rail network, like Minneapolis (my home town) is doing. Rail commutes are nice, you can read or play video games. Then it doesn't matter if you can afford to live in the city center.
> If one out of every four "tall skinny" houses was made available at well under market rate to local, low income renters
This is a popular idea but I think it's naive. How are you supposed to decide which low-income renters get lucky and get to live in a much nicer house than their peers? And who pays for it? If you're going to tell developers to foot the bill then that discourages development which ultimately makes the housing shortage worse.
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#319Homelessness is a solved problem. SF residents don't want the solution. Real estate is the primary wealth building asset class of long-term residents who bought property ages ago or inherited it. In California property taxes as assessed at time of sale, so you hold onto properties realistically valued at multiple millions while paying taxes at rate appropriate to tens of thousands. Bulldozing a single family home to…
Do you have any links for the homelessness is a solved problem claim? While I’ve seen societies that have reduced the problem, I haven’t seen any that have solved the problem - at least if they are bigger than ‘toy’ populations. Plenty of places pretending they solved the problem by shipping people to jail or similar if they refuse to live somewhere the authorities demand they do. That said, SF is pretty much a poste…
Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco
#320Earlier quoted context omitted.
That seems like a far cry from the exponential growth described where you house one homeless person and 2 appear.
They’re not incompatible statements. The easier it is to be homeless, the more homeless you get. That’s different from where they come from.