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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#311

Post by ghaff »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #232
ghaff wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and might be more reliable in general Cars in, say, the 1960s were not "more reliable in general." It's not all semiconductor-related of course--they also rusted out quickly in areas that got snow--but 5 years/50K miles is about what you were looking at for vehicle lifetime. Also much lower fuel efficiency, to say nothing of lack of what we'd consider routine safety features today.

My 1965 Volvo Amazon did 300 k miles before I scrapped it, in 1984, in favour of a 1976 Volvo 245. I only scrapped it because it wasn't worth anything, it was in perfect working order. The floor of 245 finally succumbed to Norwegian road salt in 1996 after 250 k miles but was otherwise in perfect order. I don't remember how far my 1965 Austin Mini van had done by the time I scrapped it in 1978 but I'm quite sure it w…

That was certainly not the norm however. I can clearly remember when 100K miles was considered exceptional and, as someone else noted, probably beyond what the odometer was designed for.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#312

Post by hef19898 »

eldaisfish wrote: post #253
kwhitefoot wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My 1965 Volvo Amazon did 300 k miles before I scrapped it, in 1984, in favour of a 1976 Volvo 245. I only scrapped it because it wasn't worth anything, it was in perfect working order. The floor of 245 finally succumbed to Norwegian road salt in 1996 after 250 k miles but was otherwise in perfect order. I don't remember how far my 1965 Austin Mini van had done by the time I scrapped it in 1978 but I'm quite sure it w…

this is survivorship bias, nothing more.

The bias is more that we go through cars faster, generally, then they die. And once a car isn't used anymore, it just rots away. Or it gets exported to some developing country to happily life for another couple of decades. How that would work with modern electronics, I don't know. Probably as long as electronics don't brick the car it should fine I guess.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#313

Post by bumby »

will4274 wrote: post #279
throwawaygh wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Why? Is the government better at inventory and/or supply chain management than the current players in the market? My experience with COVID tests says no.

No, but the government can shoulder a larger risk than what the private sector may tolerate.

There's all kinds of examples, but aerospace is a classic one. There would be no airline industry or commercial space industry if the government wasn't willing to bear a disproportionate amount of the risk when these industries were nascent. There just wasn't enough market demand to incentivize the private sector to do so on their own. So the govt sets up an incentive structure that brings the risk to a level where the private sector is willing to partake. The government is also generally more tolerant of longer-term scenarios than the private sector.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#314

Post by baybal2 »

throwawaygh wrote: post #220
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #113

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

> A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Unfortunately, no Western government can do it even if its life depends on it.

German trade officials for example went and completely prostrated themselves in front of Taiwanese govt, and TSMC, offering anything short of switching the recognition of China to Taiwan.

It bounced off without any effect.

It was only a blank cheque from USA that made them to even scratch, and that is still pending that cheque being honoured, and cashed out.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#315

Post by ghaff »

hef19898 wrote: post #307
OldHand2018 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depending on the brand/model, the odds are pretty overwhelming that your car from 1982 has 5 or more chips in it. The chip-ification of cars has been going on for a really, really long time.

Mine has a total of three 35 amp glass fuses. And dual carbs. I can confidently say there are no chips in there, excluding the radio and the rests of the snack variant on the back seat. Sometimes I'd love EFI, 17 l / 100 km just hurts...

I also remember when it was a good idea to carry spare fuses with you. I certainly don't in my current 10 year old vehicle and have absolutely no idea where the fuse box is (well I know the general vicinity where it probably is) without looking in the manual.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#316

Post by fouric »

ruuda wrote: post #99
icegreentea2 wrote: post #50

The article (and others about this topic) indicate that the chip shortage isn't just a static. They all claim that chip and other supply chains (all based on South East Asian) are all under new pressure from delta strain spread. In fact, I wonder how much of this really is chip supply vs general supply. Most articles on this open with headlines about chip supply, but then contains quotes from Toyota about "supply" an…

Yeah, this also makes no sense to me: > The Covid pandemic boosted demand for appliances that use chips, such as phones, TVs and games consoles. SOCs in phones and game consoles are produced on very different processes than chips used in cars, no? Cars don't need the smallest dies or most energy-efficient chips. These industries are not competing for the same capacity. Or am I missing something?

Hypothesis: there's a correlation between shortage of chips made with cutting-edge processes and chips that are not, because a lot of them are made by the same companies (and the supply-chain issues are impacting companies not just product lines). For instance, in addition to having the bleeding-edge 5nm node, TSMC has a lot of larger nodes and specialty non-digital-CPU nodes, too[1].

[1] https://techtaiwan.com/20210816/tsmc-speciality-technology/

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#317

Post by creeble »

icegreentea2 wrote: post #50

The article (and others about this topic) indicate that the chip shortage isn't just a static. They all claim that chip and other supply chains (all based on South East Asian) are all under new pressure from delta strain spread. In fact, I wonder how much of this really is chip supply vs general supply. Most articles on this open with headlines about chip supply, but then contains quotes from Toyota about "supply" an…

Highly anecdotal, but I spoke to Bilstein about some seemingly unobtainium shocks yesterday. Pre-pandemic these part numbers were common as dirt.

They said their sales were up 50-60% over the last 18 mos, and that raw materials supply is down by a similar margin.

These are shock absorbers, not chips or toilet paper.

It seems like we're seeing the delayed effect on supply chains over the pandemic. There is surely no value in hoarding shock absorbers, and if distributors were the hoarders, they seem to just be sitting on them, not raising prices.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#318

Post by hef19898 »

ghaff wrote: post #315
hef19898 wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mine has a total of three 35 amp glass fuses. And dual carbs. I can confidently say there are no chips in there, excluding the radio and the rests of the snack variant on the back seat. Sometimes I'd love EFI, 17 l / 100 km just hurts...

I also remember when it was a good idea to carry spare fuses with you. I certainly don't in my current 10 year old vehicle and have absolutely no idea where the fuse box is (well I know the general vicinity where it probably is) without looking in the manual.

Oh, I have probably half a dozen or so in the glove box! The auxiliary circuit has a tendency to blow the fuse out... Still unable to figure out why...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#319

Post by wuliwong »

only_as_i_fall wrote: post #280
Causality1 wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nightmarish results of agricultural subsidies in the US is an excellent reason to not involve the government in the chip shortage.

Sure, but pontificating on government inefficiencies doesn't actually improve supply chain weakness either.

The comment was a response to a suggestion that the solution to the chip shortage was government intervention. I don't consider giving a evidence to the contrary of an argument as pontificating.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#320

Post by dmix »

btbuildem wrote: post #236

I don't see this raised anywhere -- but what's so bad about producing fewer cars (the poor neglected shareholders and exec bonuses aside)? It's almost as if we would need to lean into this, reducing growth and producing fewer cars would be in line with efforts to mitigate the drivers of climate change. What if car manufacturers pivoted their KPIs and focused on making long-lasting, serviceable vehicles? Toyota is alr…

Used car prices was up something like 90% and even renting cars is way more expensive already. This is just going to further constrain supply.

I tried renting a car and despite being sold out in the vast majority of places well ahead of time it was 2x the normal base price.

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