Blue Origin first human flight • Hacker News Board

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#311

Post by simpleguitar » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:44 PM UTC

dev_tty01 wrote: post #266

detritus wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that amuses me is that if SpaceX can make Starship and the Heavy booster work, they could actually come up with a tourism/joyride that would blow these piffling jumps by Branson and Bezos into irrelevance. If you can send 50-100 people on an actual orbiting jaunt, perhaps a night in 'space rocket hotel', rich folk would gladly pay millions, which makes the business case a lot more compelling. Then they'd ju…

Yeah, the sub-orbital is a harder sell. When you are the only one or one of a few, the benefit/cost is perceived to be higher. After a dozen or so of these flights much of the cachet will be gone. Can they (Bezos/Branson) bring the cost down fast enough to transition to a sustainable model? In 2000, Dennis Tito paid $20M for 11,400 minutes in space or about $1750/minute ($2765 in 2021 dollars). The Branson and Bezos…

I think a lot of people might be willing to pay for 4 days in orbit for $2M.

My version would have blackjack and hookers, obviously.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#312

Post by bob1029 » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:44 PM UTC

notJim wrote: post #301

bob1029 wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of all of these space-faring corporations, SpaceX has orders of magnitude more aerospace infrastructure and assets to work with. Their entire ethos since inception was getting humanity to Mars, not sending a handful of wealthy people into suborbital trajectories. Elon/SpaceX have certainly participated in a lot of PR throughout, but it always seemed to be along an engineering axis, not some feel-good emotional ax…

Not sure a tiny island that’s 6-7’ above sea level is such a genius investment these days.

The construction of most buildings along these coastal regions is expressly considering these kinds of concerns. Storm surge during a hurricane is an excellent facsimile for this scenario and encourages compensation on the engineering side. I haven't been down to South Padre Island in a long time to confirm, but I know for a fact that no beachfront property in Galveston has a meaningful first floor layout. Every one of these homes is constructed with the expectation that the first floor will flood, so everything important starts on the 2nd floor and up. Ground floor is typically just parking/storage/stairs/elevator.

I don't think any place on earth is a good spot to build when playing with geologic timescales.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#313

Post by pie420 » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:45 PM UTC

fallingknife wrote: post #158

gist wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rich folk would gladly pay millions, which makes the business case a lot more compelling. I would say some would but keep in mind that a few other things have to come together. a) Willing to take the risk (non trivial example I would not do this no chance) b) Your family/spouse/girlfriend/boyfriend has to buy into the risk even if it's just you going into the orbit. c) Potential negative publicity as in 'look how t…

The publicity aspect would deter some, but it would attract others. By the time even 20 people have gone up, it won't be newsworthy, and then it will just be like buying a yacht. There are about 1.5 million people in the US worth $10 million or more, which is about where you need to be to comfortably afford this type of thing now, and another 10 million or so single digit millionaires, many of whom would take a signi…

The economics are just silly. 4 passengers at $250k each is only $1M in revenue per flight. Between fuel costs, rocket costs (even assuming 10x reuses per rocket, you'd need to build the rocket for significantly under $10M to have a chance at profitability, could you imagine building a rocket for under 10M?), engineer and employee salaries and benefits, advertising, liability, etc.

Add in the fact that you have a very viable competitor in Virgin Galactic and SpaceX who could leapfrog both and provide even better experiences, and I don't see how Blue Origin will ever be viable without government funding

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#314

Post by ruined » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:46 PM UTC

dude goes to space but can't show me a webpage without executing js

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#315

Post by rtkwe » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:47 PM UTC

jcun4128 wrote: post #49

dole wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youtube's homepage reminds me of the television broadcasts in Idiocracy. Just another fulfilled prophecy.

You know what's annoying is they barely show you content that you subscribe to. I find the "recently uploaded" filter is more helpful in terms of finding something interesting to watch.

That's not what they want the front page to be, it's the stuff you might like page. They have an actual page for your subscriptions if that's what you want to see.. I was always confuse in the beginning about all the creators and viewers saying they weren't seeing uploads till I realized people just weren't using the subscription tab.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#316

Post by runawaybottle » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:47 PM UTC

eco wrote: post #305

JshWright wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blue Origin actually predates SpaceX. They have been working in parallel on related ideas, so I don't think it's fair to say they "copied" SpaceX. SpaceX is definitely a lot further down the road, and what Blue Origin is doing currently is much easier. The energies involved in suborbital flights are much lower, and the fact that the rocket has a thrust-to-weight ratio low enough that it can hover makes the landing pr…

I still can't wrap my head around how little Blue Origin has accomplished in 21 years despite having an earlier start than SpaceX and with Bezos injecting a billion or so into it every year. SpaceX launches people and cargo to the ISS, just completed the first shell of a nearly worldwide satellite internet network using reused boosters many of which approaching 10 flights, and is a few months out from test launching…

Bezos doesn’t know the science as well as Elon. Not to say Elon is a rocket scientist, but knows enough to impact something (direction, velocity).

Bezos is showing where he does know things. He knows what works (spacex design and vertical landing), so copy that. Amazon didn’t invent books, they just sold it cheaply and on the internet.

It’s interesting, I think Musk and Bezos would make a good team, especially on something like Tesla.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#317

Post by zaaakk » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:47 PM UTC

GiorgioG wrote: post #286

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jeff Bezos could vaccinate the entire world against Covid without changing his lifestyle even slightly. He could hire the smartest people in the world to work on breakthrough propulsion, SETI, blue sky physics, and computing research. The money would barely be a rounding error in his wealth. He could fund the greatest space observatories in history, fund game changing contributions to cancer research, genomics, and o…

> It's debatable if it's evil. But it's certainly lacking ambition and boring. He's the richest man on earth - who started one of the biggest and most successful companies on the planet, I'd say he had plenty of ambition. Excuse him for having a little fun. "He could do this, that and the other thing." Well thank you for telling him what he should/could do with his money. You know what, why don't you go start a compa…

You have no moral compass. Your only guidance for what is right is money. If he has the money to do it then it is justified. There is something missing in your brain and that is why you will eagerly simp for a billionaire.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#318

Post by jcun4128 » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:48 PM UTC

rtkwe wrote: post #315

jcun4128 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what's annoying is they barely show you content that you subscribe to. I find the "recently uploaded" filter is more helpful in terms of finding something interesting to watch.

That's not what they want the front page to be, it's the stuff you might like page. They have an actual page for your subscriptions if that's what you want to see.. I was always confuse in the beginning about all the creators and viewers saying they weren't seeing uploads till I realized people just weren't using the subscription tab.

Oh... TIL wow man I've been on YT for years

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#319

Post by unclebucknasty » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:48 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #210

croes wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good place to watch the decay of the human species because of climate change. Space tourism will accelerate it.

Or perhaps, the passengers will be galvanized by the experience and end up taking environmental issues more seriously: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overview_effect The carbon emissions of Starship already pale in comparison to the reforms we need to pass, but lack the political will to do so.

The idea that we have a system that mints billionaires with outsized power, who we then must shoot into space in order to help them gain sufficient perspective to not want to see the planet destroyed makes me think of Rube Goldberg.

Re: Blue Origin first human flight

#320

Post by dolmen » Tue, Jul 20, 2021, 5:48 PM UTC

gist wrote: post #126

detritus wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that amuses me is that if SpaceX can make Starship and the Heavy booster work, they could actually come up with a tourism/joyride that would blow these piffling jumps by Branson and Bezos into irrelevance. If you can send 50-100 people on an actual orbiting jaunt, perhaps a night in 'space rocket hotel', rich folk would gladly pay millions, which makes the business case a lot more compelling. Then they'd ju…

> rich folk would gladly pay millions, which makes the business case a lot more compelling. I would say some would but keep in mind that a few other things have to come together. a) Willing to take the risk (non trivial example I would not do this no chance) b) Your family/spouse/girlfriend/boyfriend has to buy into the risk even if it's just you going into the orbit. c) Potential negative publicity as in 'look how t…

Keep in mind that the fortune of those millionaires might collapse if they die in the adventure. Or insurance cost might might make the trip much more expensive than just the ticket.