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The NFT market bubble has popped?

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Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's reasonable to link the two, but not conflate them. Crypto has certainly made ransomware a much more viable attack vector. A crypto address is easier to hide behind than a bank account number or mailing address or drop location.

so you are a proponent of a cash-less society? If Crypto is responsible for this new attacks, fiat is responsible for all others. Including the most violent ones.

A cash-less capitalist society looks like Canada and the Nordic countries, where cash use is abnormal and most transactions are with debit and credit; Ie, quite well tracked.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so you are a proponent of a cash-less society? If Crypto is responsible for this new attacks, fiat is responsible for all others. Including the most violent ones.

A cash-less capitalist society looks like Canada and the Nordic countries, where cash use is abnormal and most transactions are with debit and credit; Ie, quite well tracked.

There are no crimes with debit and credit card? They are still cash.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cash-less capitalist society looks like Canada and the Nordic countries, where cash use is abnormal and most transactions are with debit and credit; Ie, quite well tracked.

There are no crimes with debit and credit card? They are still cash.

They are safer than paper cash or crypto; credit and debit cards have fraud protection, and banks have account security protections.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would someone that wants to exploit other people leave a place that lets them exploit others? I’ll cut to the chase. My point is your concept of society does not work at scale. You will have people that want to use the system, you will need to use force and adjudicate in the system, and you will need something more than good vibes to serve as incentives.

> Why would someone that wants to exploit other people leave a place that lets them exploit others? Because we'll kick them out. I'm always up for doing things i don't particularly enjoy because there's value in them, but I certainly don't want to live with someone who treats me like a slave. > you will need something more than good vibes to serve as incentives Sure. But you'll probably concede that we live in a worl…

> The first thing we teach children is "copying is cheating"

Sharing and cooperative play come long before anything resembling an individual assignment.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Millions of kids think they can do the same thing and drop out of school." They do? Is this what you think is happening to millions of kids?

"According to a Harris Poll/Lego survey covering the United States, Britain, and China, 29% of children aged eight to 12 want to be a “YouTuber.” That’s three times as many as those who want to be astronauts. Other polls suggest an even higher percentage of teenagers aspire to fame and fortune via YouTube or another social media platform. An eye-grabbing news report out this month suggested a whopping 54% of American…

I don't see how this is much different from kids in earlier generations wanting to become footballers, actors and djs.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not possible. How could Some Bank get away with such a Crime with no repercussions?

Is that sarcasm? Aaaaah, I get what you did there! Took me a minute or two, during which time I was finding examples of How Some Bank Crime... https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/outrageo... https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/hsbc-moved-... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-documentary-re-exa... But also: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-24/westpac-money-launder... https://www…

1) The fundamental problem is that countries, especially the US, have basically made companies exempt from criminal proceedings. Any criminal activity conducted as part of the company rarely leads to prosecution of the people in the company, and companies themselves aren’t really ever prosecuted for criminal acts. So any penalty to HSBC wouldn’t be criminal but civil and financial.

2) The articles say that HSBC laundered billions. This likely means it was $3-4Bn at most, but let’s assume it was $19Bn (because if it was $20Bn they would have said tens of billions). These transactions were probably earning HSBC a few basis points. I can’t say for sure since I’m not aware of the market price of criminal transactions, but I suspect the premium was not much higher than a regular transaction for the simple reason that it would make the transaction appear obviously criminal. But let’s say it was 200bp (so 2%, and that’s likely an order of magnitude higher, but for arguments sake). Then HSBC probably made about $400mm - costs (remember, assuming a very high $19bn in transactions). So a $1.9Bn fine is extremely high, being 5x HSBC’s revenue from the transactions assuming very favorable numbers, and not considering the non monetary penalties, such as probation, etc.

3) Finally, if Apple is found guilty of illegally promoting a monopoly through their App Store policies, would a fine of $7Bn be considered laughable, considering it’s about 5 weeks of Apple’s income? And in Apple’s case, the company operates fairly cohesively, and the App Store almost exists for the sole purpose of encouraging hardware sales, so there’s actually an argument to be made to base the penalty on Apple’s total income as a company. OTOH, banks tend to have fairly independent divisions, because they are highly regulated, unlike the likes of Apple, and there are all sorts of restrictions preventing the divisions that are making the kind of transactions from even interacting with most of the rest of the company. Apple collaborated more with its competitors to illegally suppress employee pay than this division of HSBC likely collaborated with any other division in HSBC (and they likely had to actively evade scrutiny from the middle office).

I’m not trying to argue that the punishment was appropriate. However, what I am arguing is that if a non banking company was found to have done something similar, they would have faced punishments that were a much tinier fraction of what HSBC faced. And that’s even before we factor in the fact that banks are orders of magnitude more regulated than nearly any other industry, with them being required to set up entire departments that account for over 10-20% of their workforce purely to ensure they can meet government regulations. Something pretty much no other industry, especially the tech industry, has to do.

Any shortcomings in the punishment imposed on HSBC was a result of leeway’s given to companies in general.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#317
post #95
post #5

I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.

"the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with" I felt the same, but now regard NFTs as the first meaningful application of blockchain. First, let's talk about land registries. In developed countries, the state administers a land registry. There is a strict, human-administered API against this registry. It allows users to inspect the full history of land; cause property splits/mergers; execute land excha…

> Extension: wine. There is a live problem in China, with rubbish wine being fraudulently marked as premium Australian varieties. Each bottle could be chipped in the cap with an on-chain identifier. In the wine shop, you could use your phone to scan the identifier, and witness custody of that wine back to the producer.

I'm not so sure it'll work well for items for consumption. There are several issues

- At any point you can swap out the content of the wine (if you can re-cap it), and sell the genuine wine to someone who trusts the person doing the fraud. - You're somewhat dependent on many people actually scanning the bottle. You can duplicate a bottle, and if someone doesn't scan it, it's not detected. If you've managed to insert yourself in the supply chain and only care about milking it for profit until you're detected and then running away with the money, you might get away with it for a while. - I know of at least one liquor from China that marks each bottle with an ID that you can check. It achieves much of the same benefit without blockchain if the supply chain isn't very long and complex

I also don't think PoW or PoS makes any sense with these use-cases where you track items or handle logistics. You probably want some organization setting standards for auditors, and to handle necessary changes to the blockchain algorithm and such. So might as well be proof-of-authority.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who doesn’t think cryptocurrency has facilitated monetizing cyberattacks needs to wake up. You can be pro-crypto and still acknowledge that the rise of ransomware has hone hand in hand with the ability to monetize it at dramatically lowered risk. This, in turn, broadened to scope of companies that were interesting to attack.

It of course facilitated, but if it didn't exist, online credit card payments would had facilitated the same way so crypto is not at fault. You can be against crypto and still acknowledge that the advocates of a tech/tool are not responsible nor turning a blind eye to the bad uses of it.

This is nonsense, online credit card payments would not be able to facilitate multi-million dollar transactions and allow the proceeds to just disappear like that.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. If it is known from the start that this is how it works, you can just avoid those CDs. 2. CDs are copies, NFTs are sort of originals, so it's pretty different.

> NFTs are sort of originals There is no such thing as an original digital media asset. The digital media attached to an NFT is by definition a copy.

I said "sort of". The point is that NFTs shouldn't be compared to CD copies, they are more similar to something like the musicians original handwritten music scores in that there's only one of it (and it doesn't confer any licence rights to the buyer).

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot 3.5, the step where A16Z breathlessly extols the technology in 5 podcast episodes and start a fund focusing on it...

Fair enough. I have a lot of respect for Andressen (with some caveats held as well) and his ability to spot oncoming waves. The whole all-in on crypto is one area I am still unsure on (even after coinbase went public for however many billions). Great investment - but is it great foresight ? On the other hand I will support his call "double down on democracy".

I mean Coinbase can be a good investment regardless. It's like investing in a lottery company, that's a good investment, but it doesn't mean buying lottery tickets is...
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