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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

311–320 of 688 posts

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#311
post #27

Coinbase is down for me. Gotta give it to BTC: it's a great store of value. You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.

Haha, Kraken is the one I use. They've just disabled their login button with no messaging, which I guess is one way to achieve the same while avoiding a mark on their uptime graph. If I remove the `disabled` attribute then clicking the button does nothing but I get a CORS error in the console.

I was skeptical of this, but I just confirmed that I can no longer login to Kraken either.

I have no holdings there to speak of, so it is a non issue for me.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). As someone partially invested in index ETFs, this worries me. Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow, inertial gains from ~6-7% annual, tops. Why? When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be susta…

> When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be sustainable in any context??? what on _earth_ do you think 6-7% a year is? that's exponential growth. > SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). [...] Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow,…

Human population growths, mosquito populations growths. Sustainable for a certain amount of time. You need to time bound your question. Nothing is sustainability on an endless time scales - the stars burn out and collapse on themselves.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#314
post #78

Surely this is also very much related to the recent announcement in China [1], banning financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrencies? [1 : https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-beijings-new-crackd... ]

This quote made me laugh: "Hong Kong's Bitcoin Association said in a tweet in response to China's reiterated ban: "For those new to bitcoin, it is customary for the People's Bank of China to ban bitcoin at least once in a bull cycle."

Was gonna say. I feel like I hear the same set of news stories once every 3-5 years.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a substantially-manipulated negative-sum distributed Ponzi scheme. The most blatant example of a naked emperor I've seen in my lifetime. And it consumes the energy of Argentina to achieve as much work as a Raspberry Pi.

Where else should people invest their money? Stocks are extremely overvalued According to the buffet ratio And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them Real estate is extremely difficult to buy and sell. Execution is hard. There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a s…

It's really hard to imagine a WORSE store of value than crypto.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#316
post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

Honest question: why do you think it's a Ponzi scheme? In the energy sector, when a well doesn't perform well enough to cover its costs, exploration companies try to get more money from their investors to drill another well that will "totally put them back in the black". I don't see this kind of dynamic in BTC.

Full disclosure: I don't own any crypto myself, I'm just "crypto-curious".

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#317
post #258

BItocin has among the worst risk-adjusted returns of any investment. I would not touch it. NASDAQ 100 and or fang portfolio way better.

This is clearly false- Bitcoin had a return of 100000% in the last decade. It's completely irrelevant with those kinds of numbers what the "risk" was. ...Now, you may have a personal opinion that the next decade will not see similar returns, but that is a completely subjective assessment on your part, even if you try to pretend that you're being objective by using the phrase "risk-adjusted returns".

the bulk of those returns were from 2010-2013

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#318
post #2

Haha, less than 24h after that article that hit the frontpage yesterday. https://etherscan.io/blocks The blocks look absolutely insane right now

Care to explain what's insane looking to you?

The fees, on a good day, you can pay somewhere around 50-100gwei for a transaction on eth, right now we are seeing 1500+gwei transactions.

For example, to deposit into a maker vault, a 50 gwei transaction would cost somewhere around 100$, it now costs like 2-3k$ just to execute a single transaction.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#319

Bitcoin is the ultimate, purely financial object. It has no revenues or profits. The supply is fixed -- unlike, say, gold, where high prices mean people will eventually start digging mines, BTC supply is entirely price-inelastic. The only thing that determines BTC price is demand. And over the past 13 years, we've seen reflexivity at work: The price has gone up, so more people want it, so the price goes up further, a…

To me, the argument that fixed supply is a good thing has always been worrisome. People just parrot that viewpoint without asking whether some amount of Keynesian economics is useful, because you know, government is evil. It got us out of the Great Recession and it’s been 12 years. Maybe the consequences haven’t fully manifest, but another Great Depression would have been guaranteed hell.

>People just parrot that viewpoint without asking whether some amount of Keynesian economics is useful, because you know, government is evil.

This just isn't an accurate portrayal of any of the serious criticisms of Keynesian economics.

>It got us out of the Great Recession and it’s been 12 years. Maybe the consequences haven’t fully manifest, but another Great Depression would have been guaranteed hell.

It feels like an unfair argument you're having because of course the opponents' whole argument is that the consequences haven't manifested AND that they would be far more dire than a continuation of the Great Recession / another Great Depression. As wealth gaps widen, as inflation rises, as our debt grows, it's possible to see a worse future ahead than one where we continued into a depression.

In hindsight, we all know the problems which led to the fall of various empires (Roman, Mughal, etc.) but if you lived at the time, this same argument could be made against you for sounding the alarm: "Yeah, maybe it's better to not constantly expand our Empire and rely on mercenary soldiers who have little loyalty to a place they've never even been to, but can you imagine the hell if we lost the war against the Gauls??" (forgive me if I mangled the history there).

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Its not so much a currency as a tulip bulb, or a ponzi scheme, or something new that has the worst features of all those.

The tulip bulb mania story is an incredibly persistent but inaccurate myth.

The “debunking” of Tulip Mania has, itself, been thoroughly debunked:

https://fee.org/articles/tulip-mania-not-a-myth/

Plenty of financial records still exist from back then. Tulip bulb mania actually happened.

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