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Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

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Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#311

Post by almost_usual »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #271
ABeeSea wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a decentralized Ponzi scheme. It’s why Bitcoin owners are so aggressive in convincing others to buy Bitcoin.

What investment is not a Ponzi scheme? Real estate and stocks rely on a greater fool that was later to the party to come buy them at a later date. Stocks have appreciated in value so far past what they are worth for a dividend that we have had to give up that charade long ago. From the wiki for Ponzi scheme- > The scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from legitimate business activity (e.g. product…

You can’t live inside a Bitcoin.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#312

Post by legolas2412 »

csomar wrote: post #306
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

> On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. That's not correct. Once you receive your transaction within a block, they are there forever assuming you keep a copy of that blockchain. If miners stop mining, you'll be able to mine yourself within 14 days with a regular computer.

The value of Bitcoin is not just the blockchain. It is the distributed consensus on it being the correct blockchain. So, Bitcoin relies on others believing that this version of the blockchain is authoritative.

Nothing like this in gold. It is an atom which does not require any extra belief from the society.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#313

Post by koheripbal »

miohtama wrote: post #130
sebmellen wrote: post #14

What's more concerning to me is the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Perhaps there is an argument to Bitcoin being a kind of "digital gold" even if it is all but useless as a currency. But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. I used to take part in "Dogecoin Socks for the Homeless" events. It was wonderful, everyone was trying to make something good out of what we all knew to be…

> But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. It's the sign of the peak of the bull market. There is going to be hangover.

It's the sign that no crypto has really found the right value-add yet.

They are all struggling with poor transaction throughput/high fees, huge bandwidth for nodes, deflationary money supply, etc...

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#314

Post by _dps »

bob33212 wrote: post #277
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

Good point. The problem is that some people think it is a currency instead of an investment. Other people think it is an investment instead of a currency. It can't be both. Currencies have to be less valuable over time, otherwise no one would ever spend the currency. Investments have cost more overtime otherwise no would would invest. But both groups are buying and driving up the price. Also, there is a 3rd group tha…

> Currencies have to be less valuable over time, otherwise no one would ever spend the currency.

I don't have an opinion on BTC (or gold for that matter) but this widely-distributed meme is simply untrue.

1) If I have a bar of gold, and it will buy me 1% more bread loaves in a year's time, but I can invest it in something that will trade for 2% more bread loaves next year, then I will spend it because despite appreciation it is not my best source of appreciation.

2) I have living/operating expenses that I consider to supersede my need for financial return. If I don't pay for shelter and food, I won't be around in a year to enjoy the 1% more bread loaves I would get from appreciation.

3) Empirically/historically, over long time frames, gold appreciates in real terms (slowly). And yet people spent gold coins and gold-backed notes regularly.

Now, if a currency is appreciating much faster than anything else in the economy I agree you can have a deflationary spiral and a liquidity problem. But this is because the economy is collapsing — ordinary sources of growth have disappeared or reversed. This is a very special situation, and is not a general argument that currencies must depreciate.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#315

Post by Retric »

gruez wrote: post #299
Retric wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks have dividends, loans have interest, land has either rents or utility from using it. It’s that income stream beyond the initial capital that turns something into an investment. Bitcoin lacks that, it only has money from new investors and it loses money from mining. Which means without new investment it’s value must crash which creates incentives for people that own Bitcoin to convince others to buy Bitcoin. Th…

>Stocks have dividends when was the last time TSLA paid out a dividend?

Growth is optimizing for future dividends. If you know a stock will never issue a dividend, buyback, etc the it’s value is 0. That’s why people talk about future cash flows.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#316

Post by csomar »

Actually, I have come to believe that Nassim Taleb is the ponzi scheme charlatan.

Let's see

1. It's not clear what this guy achievements are; apart from stating the obvious using very good writing (black swan).

2. He doesn't have any real credentials or achievements. He brags about having traded lots of options and making a bunch of money. But he fails to deliver any proof of that.

3. He sells a mini-certificate (whatever that means) for $3.000 -> https://www.realworldrisk.com/details.html

4. He actually accepts Bitcoin for his program "Note that we accept bitcoins!"

5. Requirements for his mini-certificate are the same, practically, to buy Bitcoin

> What are the requirements to enroll? Simply, some experience with risk and, being a typical reader of, say, Antifragile or similar books.

6. You should trust him with his program because the Feedback shows considerable name recognition.

> The Mini-certificate is priced at about 40% less than an executive MBA, and requires a tenth of the time and financial commitment, so we believe that the payoff will be quite generous. Feedback shows there is considerable name recognition.

tl;dr: Taleb is a snake-oil sales man. His good writing style made you fell for it.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#317

Post by tim333 »

saalweachter wrote: post #279
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

I'm sympathetic to the argument that Ponzi schemes inherently have a small group propagating the fraud while presenting the illusion of a real business, so describing Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme may be technically inaccurate. If I understand the tweets correctly, Taleb, et al, are basically saying that the mining pool functions as the insiders in a Ponzi scheme, by outcome if not intent. The argument is that a Ponzi sc…

I'll give you that is has Ponzi scheme like aspects to it.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#318

Post by read_if_gay_ »

enlyth wrote: post #219
entropic88 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't even close to what will be the all time high. I know HN has a significant aversion to cryptocurrency (which absolutely befuddles me for the foundational societal concepts it modernizes) but love it or hate it if you think this is close to the peak you've been in a cave the last decade. *Edit: speaking about crypto as a whole not specifically doge coin. BTC and ETH first to market with digital solutions to…

Does Musk have authority over a whole planet or is this just more mindless celebrity worship?

> Does Musk have authority over a whole planet

Of course not. Anyone is free to make a settlement on Mars and choose their own currency.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#319

Post by JohnJamesRambo »

gruez wrote: post #299
Retric wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks have dividends, loans have interest, land has either rents or utility from using it. It’s that income stream beyond the initial capital that turns something into an investment. Bitcoin lacks that, it only has money from new investors and it loses money from mining. Which means without new investment it’s value must crash which creates incentives for people that own Bitcoin to convince others to buy Bitcoin. Th…

>Stocks have dividends when was the last time TSLA paid out a dividend?

Not only that but companies keep buying back their own stock to make the price go higher. If this isn’t Ponzi I don’t know what is. The companies realized they don’t even have to wait for an investor to pump the price they can just do it themselves. Spend the money that should have been spent on keeping planes from falling out of the sky on the stock. Genius! Goodhardt’s Law in full effect.

>Boeing, which has been struggling for the past year with the safety of its 737 Max jet, has spent over $43 billion buying back stock over the past decade. The six airlines—Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, American Airlines and JetBlue—have spent about $47 billion over the same period.

https://www.newsweek.com/boeing-airlines-under-fire-90-billi...

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