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Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

nature.com

311–320 of 421 posts

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Profile photo with a person wearing a baseball cap and Oakleys? Yup, that’s a republican.

If it's that easy then why was human guessing only 55 percent accurate?

At least partly due to lack of feedback on accuracy. I don’t know about you but I don’t necessarily ask everyone I meet their political leanings, so it’s hard to train yourself other than through stereotype.

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#312
post #90

I think the key line is how much better this system is than humans attempting the same task: > Political orientation was correctly classified in 72% of liberal–conservative face pairs, remarkably better than chance (50%), human accuracy (55%), or one afforded by a 100-item personality questionnaire (66%). This isn't a matter of "recognize that old white people are conservative", because people will do that already, a…

> I think the key line is how much better this system is than humans attempting the same task:

My key issue is: why does that matter, humans should not be doing it in the first place, why do we need a machine that's even better at it?

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#313
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good points and summary. Adding on to that, the following was from the abstract about 2 sentences in. Seems like some users do enjoy jumping straight to the comments! * Political orientation was correctly classified in 72% of liberal–conservative face pairs, remarkably better than chance (50%), human accuracy (55%), or one afforded by a 100-item personality questionnaire (66%). * Accuracy was similar across countries…

"controlling for ... ethnicity" There's significant signal buried in here that is likely not controlled for, depending on how granular their controls are. White-German and White-Italian are much more (10-13 percent) likely to be conservative leaning than White-Irish or White-British. Hispanic-Cuban are more likely to be conservative leaning than Hispanic-Mexican.

Now, what would be interesting is to build a model that accounts for this "knowledge" and see if it can beat the out-of-the-box classifier :-) I'd assume it can, and the question is: how far can a bit of manual modeling bring us?

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#314
The predicted 'answer' for the vast majority of people is going to be, basically, left or right (politically speaking), for maybe 80 or even 90% and more people, a 50/50 choice. How far does the 72% drop for correctly predicting the smaller political factions, I wonder?

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#315
post #294

There's an avalanche of people commenting on this who didn't bother to check the article before raising their methodological objections, so let's get these out of the way here. - Yes, they controlled for objects appearing in the pictures that might indicate political affiliation. The images are tightly cropped around the face. See Methods. - Yes, this is significantly better than both a coin flip and a human classifi…

The 72% number is the result when not controlling for demographics. When controlling for demographics, the results ranged from 65% to 71% accuracy. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1/figures/2 It makes we wonder what the accuracy would be if they controlled for demographics at a smaller granularity, like sub-ethnicities. Furthermore, it appears that the Canadian dating site data set was 54% conservati…

"The accuracy is expressed as AUC, or a fraction of correct guesses when distinguishing between all possible pairs of faces—one conservative and one liberal." - so no way to guess better than 50%.

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#316
At some point in grade school I was home sick for a few days and ended up watching C-SPAN for several hours on end. I don't recall exactly what was going on politically during that time, but many congresspersons were standing up and giving speeches for a few minutes at a time.

I eventually started a game in my mind where I'd try to guess their political affiliation before the chyron appeared. I'm pretty sure by the end I was getting it correct more than 50% of the time. Everyone was dressed similarly, but I remember looking closely at their tie patterns and hair cuts as clues.

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Profile photo with a person wearing a baseball cap and Oakleys? Yup, that’s a republican.

If it's that easy then why was human guessing only 55 percent accurate?

Worth noting the human guessing was not on the same data set, but I believe the machines are going to beat us at this in general.

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#318
Isn't it possible in many ML models to then synthesize of the images of the features that most strongly predict the orientation? Like an archetypical "conservative" or "liberal". Could this help identify if the model is picking up on something like facial expression, or facial hair?

Re: Facial recognition can predict person’s political orientation with 72% accuracy

#320
post #31
post #18

I only skimmed the paper, so I'm not claiming to know much about it, but one thing to keep in mind here is that a fair coin has a 50% accuracy using the same terminology as the headline. I'm not saying 72% is not an interesting achievement, its just that "you can do about 50% better than random chance" describes my gut feeling about how much you could actually see in someones face.

It says in the article that humans got just 55% (so 10% better than random chance) on the same test.

It says on a similar test - it's a reference to a different study with a different data set.
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