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Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

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Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#311

Post by tonyedgecombe »

xhedley wrote: post #241
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cases of the British variant are in exponential growth, current lockdown measures are not effective against it. Not in Britain. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

The daily growth in Britain is -6% to -3% with current British lockdown measures which I believe are stronger than average worldwide. Certainly stronger than pre-Christmas 2020 British measures. In England (Wales Scotland and Northern Ireland have similar but different rules because of devolution): * All schools are closed bar vulnerable children and children of key workers. * All non-essential retail, hospitality an…

South East England was in tier 4 lockdown in December but I don't think there was much compliance. This was fairly typical: https://youtu.be/K_tQCW_abjo?t=1993

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#312

Post by leesalminen »

simonh wrote: post #306
leesalminen wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Spanish Flu epidemic Trying to compare now to >100 years ago is full of all kinds of bad assumptions. Life in 1918 hardly resembles life in 2020 in any discernible way. > China had the mother of all lockdowns and is back to robust economic growth Believing this means you have to trust information disseminated by the Chinese Communist Party, which would be a foolish thing to do. They are 100% committed to saving fac…

It’s how it looked to the virus that really matters. Large urban populations, massive global movements of people, no vaccine. I think from an epidemiological point of view it really wasn’t all that different. Was it really all that different in terms of day to day economic contact either? Urban sprawl, shopping centres, industry, trains, trucks, telecommunications, global freight. Businesses losing workers and custom…

Do you really believe that journalists, of any nationality, in China feel free to express their honest take on this (or any) event that affects how people view the CCP?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#313

Post by spookthesunset »

pessimizer wrote: post #152
cwhiz wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdowns were never going to work, and any strategy that relied on them was doomed to fail. A strategy that involves convincing every country, and every little province, to destroy their local economies, all at the same time. I can’t believe it didn’t work! Maybe if we just keep trying.

Nothing is going to work any better than lockdowns, though. The reason the strategy wasn't ever going to work is because the fear level wasn't high enough. Bump up the death rate so people who can't see past their own nose see some death, and it'll work. Sadly, coronaviruses definitely have the potential to deliver on that. Now that so many people have become infected because lockdowns weren't taken seriously, and be…

> The reason the strategy wasn't ever going to work is because the fear level wasn't high enough

The average American 35 year old thinks if they catch covid they have a >10% chance of dying. This is off by almost 1000x.

If you drove that error down to 0 so people knew exactly what there risks were if they got covid (i.e. for most healthy adults and children, covid is a complete non-event)... I don't think the general public would tolerate any of these NPI's at all.

The fact that people can overestimate their covid risks by almost 1000x has destroyed our ability to have rational discussions about kids in school, who should be prioritized for vaccination, and how we should return to actual normal life.

Shoveling nonstop boatloads of absolute fear into peoples head has been one of the most morally bankrupt things the media and public health "experts" have done over the course of the pandemic. Society is going to spend years cleaning up the mental health train-wreck these people have caused.

Source for the figures. Take a look. It blows me away how wrong peoples risk perceptions are of covid. https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#314

Post by jfrunyon »

EricE wrote: post #121
acdha wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic damage is being done by the pandemic: people aren’t going to congregate when it’s risky and many businesses can’t survive without high in-person volume. Having lockdowns can get you back to the point where businesses can safely operate with community spread control measures (see e.g. Australia or Taiwan). What won’t work is attacking medical precautions or dissembling about vaccine effectiveness — and on…

"Having lockdowns can get you back to the point where businesses can safely operate with community spread control measures (see e.g. Australia or Taiwan)." How do you explain Florida, not locked down, vs. California with some of the strictest lock downs in the country having similar rates of death/infection? It's even more of a puzzler for those pushing lockdowns since Florida has a population tilted way more in the…

No. First, how do YOU explain Australia having 900 deaths for 25m people, and the US having OVER FIVE HUNDRED TIMES THAT (499k) for 328m?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#315

Post by spookthesunset »

Urgo wrote: post #21

While I'd love to believe that herd immunity is almost here or the vaccine is effectively stopping the spread already, I think the biggest reason for the drop in new cases as well as the drop in active cases can be summed up in a single word. Christmas. Or more broadly the holiday season. It's absolutely true that new cases are dropping and active cases are dropping as well but if you look at active cases everything…

Attributing the rise and fall of it to "christmas", "super bowl", "sturgous rally" or "beachgoers" is a fools errand. It's a monument to the arrogance of humankind.

I think future civilizations are going to study this period and laugh at how foolish and naive we are thinking we have any kind of real control over this virus. The idea that outside pharmaceutical interventions mankind can somehow control a respiratory virus will be mocked by future generations the same way we mock past civilizations that sacrificed goats to appease the rain gods.

The truth is the virus is gonna do what virus do: Virus. It's just part of mother nature and we don't really have any say over its behavior. Outside vaccines and treatments we can control it just about as much we can control earthquakes, tornadoes or volcanos.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#316

Post by jfrunyon »

jdminhbg wrote: post #283
acdha wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s like saying that failing to stop your car before you crash means you shouldn’t bother braking at all. Masks have repeatedly been shown to work, indoor dining has repeatedly been shown to be high risk in addition to being an optional luxury, and there’s no world in which we want more spread even if we’d prefer less.

It’s not like saying that, because nobody has claimed that crashing into another car at 5 mph is the same as crashing into it at 60. When you claim that only “hard lockdowns” (and note the circular reasoning inherent) can have the measurable effects claimed ahead of time, that’s what you’re saying.

Nobody has tried to claim that at any point in this thread. You are the only one trying to reduce this to a two-sided issue, which it's not.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#317

Post by rayiner »

danfo wrote: post #25

> Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. What, the linked study proves the opposite. A massive amount of death in Manaus in 2021, despite 'herd immunity' measured in October 2020. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-…

> Does he hear himself? You can't really liken wild guesses that lead to complacency/death as hiding the truth. It sounds like this guy should really stick to surgery.

It’s not a “wild guess.” There is data to support it. So what you’re really saying is that scientists should avoid discussing possible interpretations of the data for fear of what conclusions the public might draw. That’s not how science works and it isn’t a good way to build public trust in the process.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#318

Post by thehappypm »

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #165
thehappypm wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The upward curve started well before Thanksgiving -- really around October 1 we started seeing the summer flatness yield to an upward curve, it was steepest in November, peaking around mid-January. If the holidays were end of November through December, wouldn't the spike have started around December 1?

The upward curve can be attributed to many things and all of it conjecture until it's proven, but the FACT is increased gathering = increased transmission. There's no getting around that fact no matter where you point the finger. It's literally how this turned into a pandemic. Therefor logic is weighted towards holidays (increased gathering) leading to increased transmission. The upward curve can be a result of schoo…

I really don't think you can blame Halloween for the kickoff of an increase in cases.. that feels like a huge stretch.

I feel like the most likely candidate is weather. Even hot places like Florida and California get cooler, shorter days, with less humidity.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#319

Post by spookthesunset »

tinus_hn wrote: post #78
KaiserPro wrote: post #9

I mean thats a nice theory. The first broad point: infections are decreasing. I suspect that this might not always be because we are reaching "herd immunity". It could just be a side effect of stats. Also Vaccines in the USA will target the people who are likely to get tested. In the UK infections are decreasing because we are in a harsh lockdown. The vaccine show little to no effect _yet_ (unlike israel) As for the…

You claim lockdowns are effective because they are effective: if cases are going down without lockdown, it’s because of some unknown outside factor. If cases are going down with lockdown, it must be because of lockdown. Lockdown is both necessary and unnecessary.

That is the beauty of lockdowns. Their success is completely unfalsifiable and all paths on the lockdown flowchart point right back to "more lockdown".

If cases rise, it is because "people didn't take it seriously" and "it wasn't hard enough". Result: Blame the public and lockdown longer & harder. This time, people will behave and it will work!

If cases go down, it must have been because the lockdowns work and so we should continue them otherwise cases will rise and we will be back to square one.

Never question the lockdown. Lockdowns always win! Lockdowns can't fail, they can only be failed. It's Science!

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#320

Post by lazide »

cperciva wrote: post #219
lazide wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additionally, SARS v1 was not contagious until there were visible symptoms - a huge difference from COVID/SARS v2.

I wouldn't put too much confidence in that. SARS wasn't known to be contagious presymptomatically, but neither was COVID-19 for many months. Levels of presymptomatic transmission similar to COVID-19 are entirely consistent with the evidence we have from SARS.

That seems unlikely, if for no other reason than the way COVID has spread. Do you have any data?

All the data I've seen on SARs and the mechanisms deployed to control it indicate infectivity at or only very, very shortly before clear symptoms or they would not have been able to control it.

COVID is quite clearly infectious before visible symptoms of any kind, and even when visible many times symptoms are pretty mild - where SARs was not - and this matches it's observed spread and difficulty in controlling it.

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