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Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

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Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the developer can get permission to build 3-5 story apartments on the lot, then their land suddenly becomes way more valuable than the single home ever was. Most retirees will gladly sell and live in luxury elsewhere. If a few don't, it won't make a difference.

If the developer can get permission to build 3-5 story apartments on the lot wouldn't that only work for a single unit? Like, yes, if inside a single-family-zoned block a unit would get a special permission to be the only one to build high density, sure that piece of land would be more valuable than before. But if the whole block gets rezoned, then there's a race to the bottom.

Other comments mentioned that NIMBYs don't want their neighbours to upzone either.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#312
post #295
post #87

Oakland relaxed a lot of zoning, and permitting regulations about 5 years ago, and so now you're starting to really see production sky rocket. This article [0] mentions 2019 was had 15x more units completed than 2018. And 3x the total units from 2013-2018 combined . Anecdotally, I have several friends who've all moved to Oakland in the last year or so. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, and maybe, hope…

I think SF has already taken the hint that they can outsource their residents to Oakland. Residents strain the city budget via things like public schools. Businesses put money into the city budget via gross receipts taxes. SF wants the businesses but is very happy for residents to live elsewhere.

This is true, and will remain true until prop 13 is repealed.

The same dynamic is at play between San Jose and Mountain View/Cupertino/Palo Alto.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your question, but what I do understand seems interesting enough that I want to understand it.

looks like a dyslexic mistake

I was thinking autocorrect, but that's also plausible.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#314
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

look for vacant units in your building (if you're in an apartment) and see if you can negotiate a lower rate with your landlord based on the price of the units that are currently up for rent. if you're not in an apartment, you might be able to do the same thing with houses in your area

What incentive do they have to negotiate? I haven't heard of anyone doing this. (also there are no empty units in my apartment)

You could incentivize them by offering to extend your lease early, if you can lock in a lower rent.

You should at least try to lower your rent. The worst thing that can happen is your rent doesn't change. You might get a discount, which you certainly won't get if you don't ask.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as people are getting water, nothing is wrong? The city is losing 7 million gallons per day in leaks (this also includes firefighting). Are there alot of fires daily?

So it delivers 97% of the product to the user. Seems pretty good. What is your standard? According to the EPA the typical water system loses 16% to leaks, that means SFPUC is well above the typical system performance. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-04/documents...

Where are you getting 3% loss number from?

It seems to be over 10% is lost, based on the numbers in your prior comment.

As long as most places are leaking more, it is ok? Infrastructure relativism?

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#316
So if you want to live in SF with kids you'll have to pay at least 3000$ per month. Is the pay scale there just completely inflated for non-tech jobs due to the tech jobs and if not, where do the policemen, teachers, cleaners and so forth live? I can't imagine them earning a salary in which paying 3000$ per month is sustainable? Where do all people with "normal" jobs live?

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#317
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years I’ve come to the realization that a number of “kitchens” in luxury apartments are clearly designed for making at most breakfast and otherwise looking pretty. It’s not all luxury apartments, not by a long shot, but a surprising number were unusable due to layout mistakes or a complete lack of equipment (on the owners side). The conclusion I came to is that the people who rented these units valued a pret…

Not just new construction. Studio apartments in old buildings have also been retrofitted into 1-bedrooms by gutting the kitchen and carving out one of these crap kitchenettes from the main room, including in a building I used to live in. When I was exploring listings to see how the pandemic affects prices earlier in the year, these “kitchens” I described were also the norm over in the Sunset and Richmond around... Se…

Were mini-kitchens the norm in September, or were they all on the market because suddenly everyone needed a full kitchen? If I lived in SF during the first lock downs, upgrading to a unit with a full kitchen would be very high on my housing priority list.

When we moved out of Santa Monica, our craptastic unit was re-rented inside the 30 day window and occupied two days after we left. Why? Because it had a tiny sliver of outdoor space, which suddenly mattered a lot. I imagine that all of the tiny condos in the area are staying on the market longer because the idea of WFH from less than 500sq ft. sounds awful to pretty much everyone now.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years I’ve come to the realization that a number of “kitchens” in luxury apartments are clearly designed for making at most breakfast and otherwise looking pretty. It’s not all luxury apartments, not by a long shot, but a surprising number were unusable due to layout mistakes or a complete lack of equipment (on the owners side). The conclusion I came to is that the people who rented these units valued a pret…

> If land is incredibly expensive and one intends to eat most of their meals out, it doesn’t actually make sense to rent a full kitchen. It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise. From a purely economic perspective, a kitchen at home, when other sources of food are widely available, is tough to justify. From a w…

This doesn't pass the sniff test to me, at least for most COL levels. The only way that our household was able to reduce our food budget by eating out was to massively reduce quality in order to meet caloric needs. For roughly the equivalent quality of ingredients it was much cheaper for us to cook at home. And that's before we got a bigger house in a lower COL area with a chest freezer, which allows us to bank high quality ingredients when they're on sale or buy in bulk, especially for meat. I could probably eat cheaper still at McDonald's, but at the cost of my health.

Subjectively, I don't think that cooking at home is a "luxury". Maybe being a foodie is an upper class thing given the extra cost and time investment associated with it, but historically huge chunks of the middle class have cooked at home for a large chunk of their meals. Generally speaking only the lowest economic strata of the working poor depend heavily on fast & packaged food, and that's largely a factor of both time and ingredient availability. If you're working two or three jobs or live in a food desert, you're not going to cook at home no matter what the unit economics are.

That being said, I do have a general theory about high COL businesses. After moving out of our high COL city (Santa Monica, for the record), we've started building out a home gym and programming our own workouts. What we realized is that while our old gym provided a lot of knowledge and social structure, the primary service they offered was land and equipment. They were able to charge a premium because we literally couldn't afford enough land to put the equipment. Now that we live in a lower COL city with a large garage, the financial balance points towards it being cheaper to just buy all the equipment rather than paying for a gym membership. At the extreme end of land cost, I can see this even applying to kitchens too, since a good kitchen takes up a fairly large portion of an apartment.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent control stops rent from going up, but how does it make rent go down?

Public housing would.

Public housing only makes rents go down on market-based properties when it can offer serious competition to those market-based properties, which means lots of new public housing. (Something that I fully support, and something that is actively being worked on by some groups in California, just not any of the supposed "tenant" groups that never support new housing.)

Even in Red Vienna or Singapore, there are still market-rate housing! And the only way they keep the market rate housing low is by having enough housing. Singapore, in particluar, is really good at building tons of public housing. And their policies would horrify all the preservationist fake-progressives in SF, because they just build build build, and do it at heights greater than three stories. And Vienna's public housing would similarly horrify the fake progressives in SF that stop all new housing.

Public housing is great, but if you're looking to see it happen in SF, look to the Mods, not the Progs.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#320
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise I'd be interested in seeing your math on the subject, and it probably depends on location and at what rate do you "bill" your time, but restaurants have a lot of overhead ( property, staff, taxes) that offsets economies of scale. Even without going all-in with cheap fo…

It seems the average Big Mac meal is $6 these days. It provides approximately 1,000 calories, and the average person needs approximately 2,000 per day, so we'll assume you'll need to order two. That puts the food costs at $12 per person. The average cost to install a kitchen is around $60,000. If we assume a rate of return of 5%, that is $3,000 per year right there that the money needs to provide to justify it being…

Indeed the all in amortized cost of a full, ergonomic, kitchen in downtown SF, or that of any major city in a developed country really, doesn’t make much sense on a rational basis. I wonder how long it will take for the majority of downtown housing to changeover.
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