The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents • Hacker News Board

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#311

Post by Retric » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #297

wonderwonder wrote: post #11

Millennials face a very real risk of being a lost generation financially. They have endured 2 major, years long recessions, and now the Covid pandemic coupled with social isolation and massive unemployment that does not appear to have an end date in sight. Housing is more expensive for them than prior generations, wages are stagnant, school is expensive and social conflict is also currently on deck. WW2 was of course…

> WW2 was of course a much more trying time but it was followed by massive economic growth for most sectors of the population, I don't see that happening after the pandemic, wealth is just being silo'd and prosperity limited. I could see it happening, but not in a good way. One (not all that unlikely) scenario is that the economic winners manage to place themselves out of harms way in the pandemic & social unrest tha…

That analysis completely fails after WWI. The actual cause of the post war boom was a massive increase in agricultural efficiency. This freed up a large chunk of household budgets to be spent of consumer goods which kicked off a long cycle of economic growth.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#312

Post by Xylakant » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

analog31 wrote: post #186

Xylakant wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Germany, it's common to have a fixed interest rate for up to 30 years (more common are 10 and 20, 30 is rare). You can refinance, but you have to basically pay a fee that covers the expected loss for the bank, so that may not be worth it. Other countries differ, for example AFAIR it was common in Poland to have housing credits pegged to the swiss franc. However, I'm fairly certain that the GP is exaggerat…

That's interesting. In the US, it's called a "pre-payment penalty," where you have to pay a fee if you want to pay off a loan early. It's not imposed by regulation, but is up to each lender, so you can choose a loan that does not have such a penalty. Often consumers with weak credit or low incomes end up with loans that have worse terms, such as these penalties. My family refinanced our home loan, and it was just a m…

It’s the same in Germany, it’s laid out in the mortgage terms. As a rule of thumb, you can pay up to 5% of the principal in a single lump sum every year on top of your usual payments directly reduces the principal at no extra fee. You can negotiate higher yearly extra payments, but that usually comes at the cost of higher interest.

Sometimes you’re able to refinance at no prepayment fee, but that comes down to how hard the bank wants to keep you as a customer etc.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#313

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:53 PM UTC

racl101 wrote: post #138

war1025 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "poor" people (less than $100,000/year) How anyone making $100k can be considered "poor" is beyond me. No wonder everyone on the West coast thinks being a Millennial sucks.

Just like how you can live in a castle in middle America that costs $250K. It's just part and parcel of living where everyone else wants to live.

[deleted]

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#314

Post by HPsquared » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:53 PM UTC

colinmhayes wrote: post #235

School-Cotton wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry to nitpick but the social isolation and massive unemployment are being caused by our response to the pandemic, not by the pandemic itself. Lockdowns are a choice, with tradeoffs.

Isolation, sure. But unemployment is unavoidable when hundreds of thousands of people die.

During the Black Death, wages rose dramatically due to a shortage of workers. Economically speaking, depopulation is quite good for the survivors.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#315

Post by iso1631 » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

luckylion wrote: post #149

messe wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is blatantly false. Income tax on higher earners in the UK has decreased since the 1970s/1980s when IIRC the highest tax bands were over 70%, if not higher.

Have they fallen generally, or has the highest tax band fallen? Germany had the highest tax rate > 50%, it's now 42/45%. At the same time, the income required to be taxed at that rate hasn't changed with inflation, so while it was e.g. 52.152€ in 2002, it's 57.051€ now - adjusted for inflation, it would have to be closer to 75k€. Lowering the top marginal tax while not adjusting for inflation so more people get pushe…

90%ile now is £55k a year and gives you £40,543.60 net.

£55k today is £32,461 in 2000. In 2000 someone on £32,461 had a take home pay of £24,080 -- the equivalent of £40,800 today.

So not much change.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#316

Post by names_are_hard » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #225

analog31 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting. In the US, it's called a "pre-payment penalty," where you have to pay a fee if you want to pay off a loan early. It's not imposed by regulation, but is up to each lender, so you can choose a loan that does not have such a penalty. Often consumers with weak credit or low incomes end up with loans that have worse terms, such as these penalties. My family refinanced our home loan, and it was just a m…

Perhaps I don’t understand why there should be a penalty to pay off a loan too early? I’ve given the bank back their money; isn’t that exactly why I was paying interest in the first place?

Think of it like returning an item to a store and paying a restocking fee. Stores would prefer all sales be final, but where they allow returns, they prefer to charge for the service when they can. You bought a mortgage from the bank, now you want to return it. They want to charge you for that.

See, the bank is not like your friend that lends you money. When your friend lends you money they are happy to receive payment early because they didn't actually want to lend it at all, it was a favor to you. They probably didn't charge interest, but if they did they did so because they "had to" (meaning they can't afford to lend you money as a flat out favor so they'll take the market rate, like when my friend the mechanic fixes my car but asks me to pay him because he's gotta live).

When the bank lends money they _want_ to lend it, it's the whole point of their business. That's why they exist, to charge interest. When you pay back early you're reneging on the deal, so to speak, and defeating the purpose of the business. They don't want the money back until the agreed upon time, it throws a wrench in their plans, budgets, forecasts, etc. The fee covers the cost of this inconvenience and discourages you from doing so.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#317

Post by dorkwood » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

Philip-J-Fry wrote: post #94

I'm my early 20s and in the UK. I earn more than my Dad who is in his 50s. He managed to get a house, have money left over for an expensive hobby, decent car, the odd holiday etc. I'm a 90th percentile earner. Will 95+ percentile earner in a few years time. Yet it feels like I am not as well off as I should be. I don't live in an expensive area either. Yet I need to save so much money to even have the opportunity to…

I feel the same. I'm not earning quite as much you are, but still doing better than most of my peers. None of the millennial spending tropes apply to me, either, since I don't buy anything outside of the usual bag of groceries once a week.

What's especially worrying is that if I'm "doing well", and I'm so screwed, what's going to happen to the rest of the population below me?

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#318

Post by _jxdz » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:56 PM UTC

I earn more than my family or my peers earn, but living in London often feels like my money comes in and goes out again immediately. As a result, I currently live with my family in an extraordinarily nice house that I would never be able to afford myself. I pay them a nominal sum for rent; they refuse to take the market rate even though I am happy to pay it...

I look at the rental cost of a standard 1 bedroom flat in my part of London, and they want £1,200/month just in rent. It would be cheaper to get a mortgage, but I fail the "affordability" tests. Perhaps I am selfish, but I am not so desperate to move out to a relatively inferior property in which I possess no interest (since I will merely be renting) for that sum.

I don't believe I'll ever be able to afford a house, especially as wage growth allegedly stagnates and then seemingly declines past the age of 40. If these are my "peak earning" years, then I'm quite sad because at this rate I'll be trapped at home forever. It would be fine if rents were about the same as a mortgage: one could rent while saving.

At the moment though, renting while saving seems eminently unaffordable.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#319

Post by _mkef » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:56 PM UTC

floor2 wrote: post #298

_mkef wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of now there is an eviction moratorium in most of America, but when the moratorium ends do you have to catch up on 12 months of rent ? How is any family, which was already living paycheck to paycheck ever going to sort that out. What's going to happen is tons of Americans are simply not going to be able to pay, their credits will be ruined and the rent won't be paid anyway. It would be nice to present a goal, no o…

This didn't answer the question at all. People understand renters who lost their jobs can't pay their rent. The problem is, you can't just say "so don't pay rent" and magically make that OK. That rent money in turn pays for maintenance/upkeep, mortgage payments, property taxes, wages for property managers and repairmen etc. You can't pretend like all land is owned by some king who can just afford to not get rental pa…

The current defacto situation involves millions of renters just being unable to pay. They can't be evicted in most of America.

Landlords are going to lose money.

>Flipping your final line around, how would the elderly widow relying on renting out her former family home handle receiving no income for a year?

She still will not get any income until the eviction moratorium is lifted. The only thing she can do is sue her tenants for money they don't have. Even in good times evictions can take months to a year.

It can be argued this is the risk of doing business. If tenants can't pay they can't.

The backlog of evictions ( which are one of the most stressful things you can experience) will clog courts. At least if we establish renters will not be able to pay, we can develop an alternative plan. Better to have a plan than saying everyone has to survive the best they can.

Someone with an economic degree would work out the details. Obviously I can't write a full relief bill in a comment

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#320

Post by doteka » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:59 PM UTC

mcv wrote: post #202

Philip-J-Fry wrote: post #94

I'm my early 20s and in the UK. I earn more than my Dad who is in his 50s. He managed to get a house, have money left over for an expensive hobby, decent car, the odd holiday etc. I'm a 90th percentile earner. Will 95+ percentile earner in a few years time. Yet it feels like I am not as well off as I should be. I don't live in an expensive area either. Yet I need to save so much money to even have the opportunity to…

I'm no millennial, but gen-X. My brick box is okay. Not as big as the one my parents had, but it's in a bigger city, which really adds to the cost. But my wife and I are double earners, unlike my parents. And we both have really good jobs. We don't have it hard, but we don't drive new cars either; we've got a second hand Prius. The only sign that we've got it good is that our house in Amsterdam is not as tiny as most…

You live in Amsterdam... sorry to say, but that is privileged as hell. Housing prices are becoming insane even outside the Randstad (I’m a 95 percentile earner too) so if you own property in the Randstad and think ‘the only sign you have it good your house is not tiny’ - take off the horse blinders.