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The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

nytimes.com

311–320 of 355 posts

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for your comments in this thread. Some people seem to have an axe to grind concerning the hubris of software hackers and are pushing that debate rather than addressing the question.

Among other things! I dunno what it is, the internet + Donald Trump that does this to people? Too much fighting, even among people who are mostly ideologically aligned.

Hmmm, it seems like the idea that we have too much fighting is not very popular. Maybe I have it completely backwards, maybe we need more fighting.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, as in you are unable to provide evidence, or no as in your are unwilling ?

As in: No, I'm not about to read your lengthy line-by-line literary critique of your stunning assertions that I'm making up every single rebuttal and that I seem to have imagined this entire conversation. It's like poorly-executed gaslighting, as if you weren't aware that I can scroll up and see the post that I was replying to. I'm able to verify that, yes, it plainly states the thing that you have spent several bewi…

Once again, your description of the conversation is quite inconsistent with the words written on the page, but I think there's not much hope in making any progress.

I'll share a piece of advice that a good friend of mine told me a few years ago: The mind is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master.

I didn't really understand what he was talking about at the time, I thought it was just another one of those silly platitudes that people who've smoked a bit too much drugs say. But after pondering it over the years, it has become one of my very favorite sayings.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only thing I hear is "this won't work" "but what can we do?" "don't you understand that this won't work".... I find it doubly frustrating because the majority of these are asserted as fact, typically based on flawed reasoning, when what they really are, are estimations/predictions. If this lack of concern (if not outright disdain) for correctness becomes too prevalent within a society, I worry that it may affec…

The flawed decision making was right at the start, when this thing could have been bottled up, and then after that at just about every junction where decisions were postponed. Now it's too late and everybody and their brother will start telling the ICU personnel how to clean up our messes?

It could be, I'm not overly familiar with those details, and therefore hold no opinion. Only when I sense I have a fairly decent understanding of a situation do I form any opinions on it (or more accurately, this is how I try to approach things!). And often even not then, as I have awareness of and profound respect for the ~multidimensional complexity of reality, where many of the variables and associations involved are completely invisible from an individual human perspective.

Regardless, is this somehow related to my comment above?

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any idea how long it took your wife to learn to achieve the level of skill she is at? Let's say this was WW3, and we somehow lost 75% of these specialized personnel, what would be a ballpark estimate to get a reasonably intelligent person with no medical experience up to a "functional" level?

There's a lot to this question. > what would be a ballpark estimate to get a reasonably intelligent person with no medical experience up to a "functional" level? It really depends and I'm speaking out of my comfort zone here. Becoming a doctor takes a really long time because it includes a LOT of background and general medicine knowledge. Doctors know a lot about medicine outside their speciality. Med school is 4 yea…

Sorry, I probably should have been more clear, I was referring to teaching someone only the skills necessary to operate a ventilator, in a supporting role to a properly trained medical professional, who would handle the more complex situations.

I'm willing to consider that it isn't possible, but if that is the case, I'd be keen to know the particulars of why. If there happened to be a documentary on respirators that covered some of the complexity involved, I would be on my couch watching it.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The short answer is, much of what we believe, both individually and collectively, is simply incorrect. In this case, my perception is that a person believed something to be untrue due to the idea having been labelled a conspiracy theory, and then after reading this story, he was less confident in the belief. Generalized, we might state this as: the perception of high accuracy in our beliefs is illusory. Not only does…

The only thing I can respond to your lengthy comment is: politics as we have it now is rigged in the favor of populist "leaders" that do what people want them to do, not what is the right thing to do. With "one man, one vote" the lower 51% less educated and intelligent part of the voters will elect the politicians that play their tune, even if the other 49% that are more qualified will vote otherways. In a way, it is…

> The only thing I can respond to your lengthy comment is: politics as we have it now is rigged in the favor of populist "leaders" that do what people want them to do, not what is the right thing to do.

I mostly agree, but I would replace "populist leaders" with something like "the rich and powerful". If you think back to before Trump's election, can you remember anyone complaining about the system being rigged in favor of the rich and powerful?

> With "one man, one vote" the lower 51% less educated and intelligent part of the voters will elect the politicians that play their tune, even if the other 49% that are more qualified will vote otherways.

I agree a lot with this also. Where you and I likely differ quite substantially is in the designation of who belongs in the groups "less educated and intelligent part of the voters" or "more qualified". I consider concepts like intelligence and qualification to be highly dimensional, where most people seem to see it as uni-dimensional (here I must speculate, because ideas like this seem to be a rather sensitive subject for many people).

> In a way, it is the dictatorship of the stupid (no intention to offend someone, just math and basic psychology).

I would absolutely love to see the math behind this, are you referring to a specific paper of some kind?

> If a country leader tells them to self-isolate, they will laugh and ignore until it gets serious and in hindsight they blame politicians.

This seems true enough, there have been all sorts of people on TV laughing it up on the beach with full knowledge that a global pandemic was underway. It would be nice if we could find a way to put some additional sense into these people's minds.

> When you have no pandemic for 100 years you don't care about ventilators and ventilator contracts, you care about unemployment, taxes, football and the last iPhone models.

110% agree here - it's true, and it is a very big deal, imho.

> History is always forgotten because regular Joe and Jane don't read history and Einstein has a single vote.

Yup. The interesting thing about that though, is that hardly anyone reads history. Take HN for example, I'd be surprised if even 10% of the people here would remotely qualify as "students of history", yet I suspect the percentage of people who consider themselves qualified to deploy phrases like "History is always forgotten..." would be up around the 90% range. Obviously I'm not referring to you here since I mostly agree with everything you've said, but I suspect I'm at least in the ballpark.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As in: No, I'm not about to read your lengthy line-by-line literary critique of your stunning assertions that I'm making up every single rebuttal and that I seem to have imagined this entire conversation. It's like poorly-executed gaslighting, as if you weren't aware that I can scroll up and see the post that I was replying to. I'm able to verify that, yes, it plainly states the thing that you have spent several bewi…

Once again, your description of the conversation is quite inconsistent with the words written on the page, but I think there's not much hope in making any progress. I'll share a piece of advice that a good friend of mine told me a few years ago: The mind is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master. I didn't really understand what he was talking about at the time, I thought it was just another one of those silly pla…

No.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing I can respond to your lengthy comment is: politics as we have it now is rigged in the favor of populist "leaders" that do what people want them to do, not what is the right thing to do. With "one man, one vote" the lower 51% less educated and intelligent part of the voters will elect the politicians that play their tune, even if the other 49% that are more qualified will vote otherways. In a way, it is…

> The only thing I can respond to your lengthy comment is: politics as we have it now is rigged in the favor of populist "leaders" that do what people want them to do, not what is the right thing to do. I mostly agree, but I would replace "populist leaders" with something like "the rich and powerful". If you think back to before Trump's election, can you remember anyone complaining about the system being rigged in fa…

I forgot to tell: you are focusing on US (the Trump mention), I work in a US company (so I keep up with the situation there) but I live in Europe and I see the situation in the countries around me: it's full of populism, not "the rich and powerful".

I don't have a specific paper in mind for the math, but the knowledge from college with a major in statistics (and demography). It does not make me an expert, just a bit more qualified than most people.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you believe that we can infer useful information about ventilators from this? I'm not seeing much relevance to this conversation.

I can infer some useful information about you from this thread. It is that you actually don't give a damn but you love arguing, the more the merrier and no matter whether or not you stray far off-topic, you'll be happy because that gives you yet another thing you can argue about. If there is relevance to this conversation in the 10,000 or so words that you have spent on this thread then I fail to see it, so I really…

That inference is 100% consistent with his past behavior as I've experienced it.

His arguments are incoherent, rambling, and and focused on nothing but derailing the conversation and wasting everyone's time. He perfectly fits the definition of "sealioning". He even admits he knows what it is and is familiar with the web comic that coined the term, then in the same post, he continues to behave as if he's working directly off the wikipedia definition, acting out its every point and symptom, as if it were his playbook.

When confronted with arguments that directly address his points, he complains and runs away and refuses to respond to them. His "concern" for the topic and interest in having a conversation is totally insincere. His only goal is to waste time. Only when he can waste time and divert the conversation away from the point, does he bother to reply. But once there is no way out but to confront the glaring contradictions in what he wrote, his suddenly disappears and has no more to say.

It's supremely ironic and proves he's a troll with absolutely no sense of self-awareness, when he says things like "I'm not seeing much relevance to this conversation", after spending so much time and energy trying to derail the conversation with irrelevant bullshit. That should serve as a warning and warning sign to anyone tempted to engage him in conversation, or take anything he says seriously.

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can infer some useful information about you from this thread. It is that you actually don't give a damn but you love arguing, the more the merrier and no matter whether or not you stray far off-topic, you'll be happy because that gives you yet another thing you can argue about. If there is relevance to this conversation in the 10,000 or so words that you have spent on this thread then I fail to see it, so I really…

I've been making liberal use of the flag button for the trolling comments once I picked up on the pattern.

Thank you! His pattern of sealioning is outrageously obvious and blatantly unoriginal and formulaic. It's as if he has a dog-eared copy of "Sealioning for Dummies" marked up with yellow highter pen and bookmarked with post-it pads, that he's following step by step, page by page, checking off each technique and trick as he tries it.

Sealioning is related to the Gish Gallop, to which there are some countermeasures that work (beyond systematically flagging his post every time he does it, which is the least we all can do to protect the community).

The approach that worked for me, and shut him up cold in his steps and made him suddenly retreat, is to be very calm and structured about your replies, and not let him derail you, which is something that we can all cooperate together on, and support each other by doing together as a tag team.

Carefully chose and enumerate your questions, and repeat them when he doesn't answer them, but don't get distracted by his off-topic diversions, or his passive aggressive belligerence with a veneer of sincerity on top. His pseudo-intellectualism and pretend-open-mindedness and saccharine-sincerity is all just an act, and you don't owe him the level of courtesy that he is pretending to extend to you and mocking you with. I can practically see him laughing to himself (and his Gamergate veteran buddies) behind the keyboard every time he thinks he's fooled anyone into taking him seriously, because he certainly doesn't believe what he says.

Just calmly point out every time he ignores one of your questions or somebody else's questions, or tries to derail the conversation. Keep relentlessly pushing him back onto the topic, and never let him derail you. When I did that, he was mortified and childishly complained that I was not the boss of him, and that I could not tell him what to do, or force him to answer my questions, then he immediately lost interest and fled without another word, because the last thing he actually wanted to to was to stay on topic and answer the questions I would not stop asking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Technique and counter measures

During a Gish gallop, a debater confronts an opponent with a rapid series of many specious arguments, half-truths, and misrepresentations in a short space of time, which makes it impossible for the opponent to refute all of them within the format of a formal debate.[3][4] In practice, each point raised by the "Gish galloper" takes considerably more time to refute or fact-check than it did to state in the first place.[5] The technique wastes an opponent's time and may cast doubt on the opponent's debating ability for an audience unfamiliar with the technique, especially if no independent fact-checking is involved[6] or if the audience has limited knowledge of the topics.

Generally, it is more difficult to use the Gish gallop in a structured debate than in a free-form one.[7] If a debater is familiar with an opponent who is known to use the Gish gallop, the technique may be countered by pre-empting and refuting the opponent's commonly used arguments first, before the opponent has an opportunity to launch into a Gish gallop.[8]

Re: The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's common sense that an invasive medical procedure needs to be administered by someone with some semblance of competence in medicine, if you expect the patient to have a shot at not dying. An emergency doesn't change the hard technical requirement of administering ventilation. Or rather, this should be common sense, but the over-inflated egos on HN don't understand that it takes more than knowing which butt…

> Because it's common sense that an invasive medical procedure needs to be administered by someone with some semblance of competence in medicine, if you expect the patient to have a shot at not dying. Common sense does not determine how difficult something is, how difficult it is determines that. Reality, for the most part, flows into the brain from the outside world, not the other way around. > An emergency doesn't…

Bravo, you are a masterful troll. You should do this for a living, if you don’t already.
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