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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#311

Post by Spooky23 »

jedberg wrote: post #188
wwweston wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There have been good solutions run up through the state house What are the best solutions you've seen? > They only want to help poor people if it doesn't affect their property value. I'm sure there are some unsavory high net worth individuals who are happy to support policies keeping housing expensive just to keep assets inflated even if it means access to housing is harder for everyone. But I'd guess for a lot of…

> What are the best solutions you've seen? SB 827 was pretty good. [0] SB 50 was a good idea with a bad execution [1] > if the story of net outflow is true. The article says that California still saw a net inflow due to births and incoming foreign migrants. > Either the existing supply is being manipulated in some way, It is, via rent control, which has shown time and again to only help people who already have housin…

> Yes, there is a lot of foreign investment in California real estate which just sits empty. I get ads from agents that "specialize in finding Chinese buyers" which is code for "people who will pay more than asking and not care what condition the house is in".

Or more simply, “money laundering”.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#312

Post by pmiller2 »

nradov wrote: post #302
smsm42 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people are sick of it. I wonder if people considered voting the politicians who made these laws out. Judging from CA voting patterns, probably not. And then when it gets really bad, they move to another state and likely vote for the same policies that caused them to move in the first place.

California has largely become a single party state. I'm not trying to start an argument between Democrats and Republicans here, but we can clearly see a pattern everywhere in the world. Once single party rule is institutionalized the politicians are no longer accountable to voter interests.

Not really. The farm valleys are very, very red, while the major cities are very, very blue. I would say CA is a very politically polarized state.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#313

Post by xyzzyz »

andrewprock wrote: post #290
xyzzyz wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 does produce some distortion in the market, but much bigger problem is the sheer inability to build anything. If California had similar zoning and building rules as Texas, Prop 13 would not really be relevant, since houses would not be appreciating in value fast enough for Prop 13 to make any difference.

Prop 13 reduces the supply of housing massively. The carrying cost for any property that was bought more than 20 years ago is negligible. This reduces the incentive to sell when you no longer need the property. This in turn raises prices by reducing supply. This likewise reduces the incentive to sell. As prices go up, the incentive to allow new construction also goes down. Prop 13 has effectively created a vicious cy…

Prop 13 has effectively created a vicious cycle of escalating property values.

Sure, but without any numbers, this is simply a just-so story. House prices in Seattle metro have shot through the roof in past 5-6 years, despite Seattle not having Prop 13 law. If house prices can demonstrably go up a lot in a place with no Prop 13-like law, but otherwise rather similar to California when it comes to attitudes towards what kind of houses are allowed to be built, it stands to reason that Prop 13 is unlikely to be main factor in dire California's housing situation.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#314

Post by charlesu »

GhettoChild wrote: post #280
shaneprrlt wrote: post #70

Illinoisan here, have a lot of family and friends that have escaped. Escape is literally how they talk about it too. Most of the complaints I hear is about cost of living and property taxes. All the costs and taxes of a state like California, without any of the beautiful weather (except for 3 months of the year during summer). It's a big issue, and part of the reason, I believe, that they just legalized recreational…

The main difference I see between Illinois and CA/NY is that the cost of housing is MUCH more reasonable so that the overall cost of living in the area is MUCH more reasonable.

It's not more reasonable when you consider the property taxes. A $350,000 house looks great until you factor in $10,000 annual property taxes.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#315

Post by twodave »

If I’m honest, as a young professional from Florida I always envied those able to uproot and move to the west coast. My whole family (both mine and my wife’s) is here on the east coast, and I spent a lot of years somewhat resentful of the missed opportunities.

Today, at the age of 35, my position has completely reversed. If anything, with the advent of the remote workplace, I’d rather be in a low cost area such as the one I live in, and the “opportunities” I’m missing out on these days just don’t seem so attractive anymore.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#316

Post by xyzzyz »

d1zzy wrote: post #306
xyzzyz wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 does produce some distortion in the market, but much bigger problem is the sheer inability to build anything. If California had similar zoning and building rules as Texas, Prop 13 would not really be relevant, since houses would not be appreciating in value fast enough for Prop 13 to make any difference.

Agreed but one of the major reasons why residents are opposed to building/zoning residential IS a natural result of Prop 13. It's impressive how much of the past/current problems California is facing can be traced back to Prop 13.

Agreed but one of the major reasons why residents are opposed to building/zoning residential IS a natural result of Prop 13.

I live in Seattle, where the attitudes of residents and attitude to building are similar, but we have no Prop 13. How is it possible?

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#317

Post by njarboe »

jvanderbot wrote: post #305
nradov wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California has largely become a single party state. I'm not trying to start an argument between Democrats and Republicans here, but we can clearly see a pattern everywhere in the world. Once single party rule is institutionalized the politicians are no longer accountable to voter interests.

California allows two candidates from the same party to run against eachother. Do other states not?

It is worse than that. With the passage of the "Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act" California has open primaries (anyone can vote for anyone on the ballot in the primaries) and only the top two get to be on the main ballot. So many times only two Democrats are on the ballot with no Republican candidate at all. Not a good situation in my opinion.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#318

Post by MattyRad »

smsm42 wrote: post #178
dfsegoat wrote: post #4

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing. From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally: - None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2] - Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price. - Some also left because of political and human environment: We hav…

> Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people are sick of it. I wonder if people considered voting the politicians who made these laws out. Judging from CA voting patterns, probably not. And then when it gets really bad, they move to another state and likely vote for the same policies that caused them to move in the first place.

Reno resident here. Policy change is something I tend to worry about given there's been a huge influx of Californian "refugees" over past the several years. If California continues its trajectory with housing costs and homelessness, it could definitely "bleed over."

Homelessness isn't as big of an issue here than it is in California (I expect in part because of the colder weather), but housing costs have definitely been affected.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#320

Post by zelly »

You can do software anywhere you can get a network connection, but if VCs aren't there, then you don't get a job. VCs have to be the first movers on this. So I have a suggestion for any of you reading.

A major reason for SV being where it is, is the climate. A number of studies have been done on this. The best place for high-quality entrepreneurship and general civilization-building is a Mediterranean climate. The Bay is not the only place with this property. Most of coastal California has the same climate. So why don't some VCs move to other places? How about Monterey? Orange County?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_climate

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