Earlier quoted context omitted.
> because the great people actively looking for jobs are likely to be bad at getting them. Why do you estimate it as "likely" (i.e. more probable than being average/good at getting the jobs)?
I assume they are mostly unrelated skills, my mental assumptions work something like: Suppose the top 10% of developers break down: 1/3 are noticeably worse than average and take 6 months to find a job, 1/3 are average and take 3 months to find a job, and 1/3 are above average and take 1 month to find a job. Each month 3000 people or 100 good 100 average and 100 bad start looking for work and the number of people loo…
The only assumption that remains to be tested then is that our current practices do not identify developers that belong to, say, top 10%.