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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#311

Post by cr0sh »

roymurdock wrote: post #227
jonny_eh wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it have been wrong to call King George III mad?

We don't live in medieval times. Trump is not a good human being, I don't like him one bit, but he's sane (I would go as far as to call him cunning) and democratically elected. Comparing him to insane kings from the 18th century just gets people to chuckle and move on, sweeping deeper critical thought under the rug. To call him stupid or mad ends any line of further inquiry into why he does the things he does, and th…

> democratically elected.

If this were true, he wouldn't be POTUS.

At best, you could say he was "elected according to the rules, procedures and processes of our democratic republic form of government, as defined by our Constitution".

That would be a fairly true statement.

It would also probably be a true statement to say that our Electoral College failed us in their primary purpose, which should be to assure that the POTUS which is elected nominally will serve the interest of all constituents, and not just some of them.

POTUS #43 could be said to have served all the citizens of the USA, even if they didn't agree with his policies; the same certainly cannot be said of this POTUS, not IMHO.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#312

Post by notJim »

blackflame7000 wrote: post #217
roymurdock wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.

You can't import(buy) more than you export(sell) forever and hope to still be rich

Even if that's true, is a trade war (which seems to be hurting some of our exports anyway…) the way to fix the trade balance?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#313

Post by notJim »

pradn wrote: post #295
elamje wrote: post #160

A very useful caveat from the insightful, and cautious, Howard Marks - > In that regard, the Financial Times noted on June 1 that “the [yield curve] has ‘inverted’ before every US recession in 50 years.” (Note, however, that this is different from saying every inversion has been followed by a recession.) https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thi...

If this signal is watched more often now, it might be that it's predictive power is decreased. A metric you act on ceases to be a good metric.

On the other hand, is it possible it's a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#314

Post by [deleted] »

pesmhey wrote: post #254
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

The Russians bailed him out and he’s been in their pocket ever since. In this particular case, that’s why the number of bankruptcies matter. In general, I agree with you.

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#315

Post by ummonk »

losteric wrote: post #289
ummonk wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the difference this time around is that the largest tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, to a lesser extent Amazon) are generating healthy profits. So while there is likely an issue with a lot of the unprofitable unicorns, the industry as a whole won't collapse.

However, the collapse of unprofitable unicorns will propagate across tech. Reduced investments in start-ups and tech companies with risky ventures translates to increased labor supply, which means downward pressure on compensation across the industry (even at the healthy big-5 tech). Housing prices near tech hubs will also pop. Here in Seattle, housing prices are propped up by tech-couple mortgages with high stock-ba…

Yeah, I mean as a software engineer as long as job availability doesn't reduce too much, I don't mind compensation reducing if housing prices go down with it...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#316

Post by ethbro »

jimmaswell wrote: post #252
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

It's a bit different when someone is repeatedly bailed out by a richer parent.

How's that different than being repeatedly bailed out with VC money?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#317

Post by nwalker85 »

tempguy9999 wrote: post #225
polotics wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so easy to distinguish the drunken master from the drunk. They walk the same.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#318

Post by xiphias2 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #234
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

He used it as a tool, the companies became bankrupt, he got rich.

I imagine he will get rich even if U.S. goes through a bankrupcy.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#319

Post by refurb »

mwfunk wrote: post #262
skrowl wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He made billions of dollars in real estate and other industries, then when on to become POTUS. HOW CAN ONE MAN BE SO INCOMPETENT!?!

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours.

Just a thought.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#320

Post by prewett »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #298

So, somebody with a more rigorous understanding correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought it was a truism that any advice about the market appearing in print was necessarily useless: If there is advice (e.g. Buy/Sell when X happens) and there is statistical proof it's a good indicator, then large companies with multibillion portfolios would act on that evidence. At which time their behavior would "correct" for th…

As you may have noticed from the article, the point of yield curves inverting is that it is a pretty reliable recession-coming indicator: "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55-to-60 percent chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months"

Also, if your timeframe is long-term, information in print is relevant, since a stock frequently trades in a region for months or years. In fact, there is a whole school of investing, value investing, that looks for companies the market is undervaluing. Generally they do this by looking at information in print but seeing it with more wisdom than the short-termers. (Problem is, wisdom is difficult to get.) But for short-term trading, I think Bloomberg would invite you to subscribe to the terminal. "Before it's here it's on the terminal" I think they say.

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