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patrickcollison.com

311–320 of 493 posts

Re: Questions

#311
post #212
post #191

> The Empire State Building was built in 410 days At least one reason is that we have substantially different safety regulations since we're not accepting of deaths on a project like that. 5 people died on that project. 11 died to build the Golden Gate. Original Bay Bridge? 24. They actually had a rule of thumb at the time: 1 death for every $1M spent on a project[1]. Any metric like that would be absolutely unaccept…

This will sound horrible but is it rational? E.g. say you are building a huge hospital and due to the above it will take 4 years longer at 2x the cost so basically you could loose X lives due to hospital not being there and due to increased cost of care.

Yes, it does sound horrible. Not because of the objective, but it is so uninformed and low effort that it is really pain full.

Yes, it's a great idea. Killing one person will allow us to double speed. How exactly I wonder, but this seems like the kind of project where asking questions is strictly forbidden.

Re: Questions

#312
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you believe we should make the national speed limit 25? If not, you're accepting that people will die needlessly, and that the value of a human life is not, in fact, infinite.

Has this been tried? I would expect more speeding and maybe even more fatalities.

That is essentially how "vision zero" works, but with the right speed for the right conditions.

https://youtu.be/7kIFegy4fII?t=1478

Re: Questions

#313

> Why can't I debug a function without restarting my program? Given the number of people here pointing out mature, powerful systems where this is totally, easily possible, I think a more to-the-point question might be "given the availability of debuggable systems, why are systems that do not value this capability so much more common/used?" ...however, I have yet to see a good answer (or even discussion--people love t…

It's not that much of a gain.

And that requires learning new things.

This is the worst combination available for a new tool to have.

Re: Questions

#314
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

before they build a new station.... do they do environmental impact studies? was enough time given for the study to complete and people to challenge the results? possibly with another study? are there community meetings to discuss the impact? does everyone in the area have a chance to voice their opposition at an open hearing? do all workers on the construction team have strict safety regulations? require certified t…

Western Europe has no shortage of worker safety, environmentalism, or democracy, and they don’t have this problem.

Are you sure? I live there and that isn’t the impression I get.

Re: Questions

#315
post #191

> The Empire State Building was built in 410 days At least one reason is that we have substantially different safety regulations since we're not accepting of deaths on a project like that. 5 people died on that project. 11 died to build the Golden Gate. Original Bay Bridge? 24. They actually had a rule of thumb at the time: 1 death for every $1M spent on a project[1]. Any metric like that would be absolutely unaccept…

I'd be surprised if safety is a significant contributor. Assuming it is, why haven't we gained, in almost a hundred years, efficiency to counter balance it?

Re: Questions

#316
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will sound horrible but is it rational? E.g. say you are building a huge hospital and due to the above it will take 4 years longer at 2x the cost so basically you could loose X lives due to hospital not being there and due to increased cost of care.

Yes, it is rational. We should live in a society where the expected human sacrifice of a construction project should be 0. Pure utilitarianism leads to outcomes that are clearly out of step with almost everyone's moral codes. For example you could kill someone and take their organs to save the lives of 4-5 people. Is it rational that we're not allowed to do that? Why do some people get to keep 2 kidneys when there ar…

Your "pure utilitarianism" is a complete straw man.

Killing someone to take their organs to save 5 lives is utilitarianism to only first order effects. We live in a world that does not terminate after one time step, so we have to consider Nth order effects to calculate utility.

For example, the second order effect is other humans' moral judgements. "How horrible, he murdered that man" is a valid moral reaction to have, and this is disutility that must be accounted for in a "pure utilitarian" world view. Third order effects may be the social disorder that results from allowing such ad hoc killings as means to an end, and so on.

The only thing preventing pure utilitarianism from being viable is a lack of compute power, and "rule utilitarianism" is a poor heuristic based approach for philosophers without patience ;)

Re: Questions

#317
post #35

> Why are there so many successful startups in Stockholm? Several reasons. First, you need to recognize that any Sweden-based startup will, when it gets to be known internationally, have a Stockholm-based office. So it's not about a city of 1 million inhabitants, it's a country of 10 million that's the true number here. As an example, I believe Spotify opened their original offices in both Stockholm and Göteborg more…

Good observations! You forgot one major thing. This goes for all of Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. The winter is horribly dark and boring. (Unless you're super rich). Therefore most turn inwards, staying indoors, thinking deeply at problems, spending endless afternoons and nights on things. Be it software development, game development, car tuning, car engine work, engineering, knitting or just reading loads of…

This is a plausible story, but that doesn't mean it's true. Anecdotally I felt more productive living in a warmer place than when living in Scandinavia. I think it completely depends on your situation and an actual study is needed to prove it one way or the other.

I also recall Jared Diamond debunking this as a theory for why "the west" got ahead in his book Guns, Germs, and Steel.

Re: Questions

#318
Some of those questions already seem to contain assumptions about the answers.

> Why are certain things getting so much more expensive? [...] How much of the cost growth is unmeasured improvement in quality and how much is growing inefficiency?

Are there other possible causes as well? If the cost growth were 100% due to improvements in quality, would it stop being a problem worth thinking about?

> How do we help more experimental cities get started? [...] Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and others, have improved the lives of millions of people and appear much more contingent than inevitable.

To my knowledge (I have no citations though), the improvement meant that millions of people were lifted from far-below-western to only-sligtly-below-western living standards. Impressive yes, but how well is that even applicable to societies at our living standard. Also, are things like workplace security or environmental effects factored into the "living standard" here?

> What's the successor to the book? And how could books be improved? [...] How can we help authors understand how well their work is doing in practice? (Which parts are readers confused by or stumbling over or skipping?)

Is this a thing we want? Would the benefits of this outweigh the costs of setting up the necessary tracking infrastructure?

> Being limited in our years on the earth, how can we incentivize brevity?

Is brevity a thing we should universally incentivize?

As a side note, what's with the humblebragging? If I get Wikipedia correctly, this guy is co-founder and current CEO of Stripe and has a billion in personal net-worth. His personal opinions and descisions influence the rules for a significant part of money transfers around the world.

Yet the website and bio read as if he were just a particularly engaged intern at Stripe.

If this is the meritocracy in action, I can see why so many people have problems with it.

Re: Questions

#319
> Why are certain things getting so much more expensive? > Why do there seem to be more examples of rapidly-completed major projects in the past than the present?

These two questions, IMHO, are inter-linked. Projects are slower because things are more expensive in general. I think there are some answers to be found as well in the populist uprisings we've seen in the US and in other parts of the world. Here are some random thoughts that are all-related to these questions:

- We are worse off today than our parents were in the 60's and 70s - in terms of purchasing power and quality of life. See the trend of 20 and 30-somethings staying or moving in with their parents today. How easy is it for someone in this age group to buy a house in the USA versus back then?

- Wage disparity has grown immensely: the rich get richer - the poor move sideways or get poorer. Capitalism, though massively positive for humanity, if unchecked leads to social unrest.

- The US government was "richer" back then - or at least had more power to engage in bold new projects. See the American New Deal (WPA). NASA. Today, space exploration seems relegated to the whims of the new gilded-age billionaires (Musk, Branson, Bezos).

- Current administration will continue this shift of power away from govt into the hands of elite. Its not the government's job to dole out food stamps - let communities or society decide how to help the poor.

- Author cites rise of healthcare costs... See unfettered Capitalism comment. No govt checks on what the price of a drug is leads to silly games with insurance. Example: family member was once medivacced on helicopter for 20 minute ride at cost of $65k - but insurance only paid $5k and we ended up paying $1k of that. They're fine now - but why even propose a $65k price tag if you're going to be OK with a 90% price cut? Gaming imbalances between people who have power and those who do not - and also propensity to pay. Needs strong regulation to fix.

- In a similar point made by Author: 2nd Avenue Subway line is most expensive cost per mile of any subway in the world to-date. Why? See good NYT article on answer. Labor Unions. Hiring 30 people for a task that only needs 10. Why? Bad allocation of resources since you can't hire anyone else. This is an attempt at thwarting unfettered capitalism. On the other hand you end up with cheap day laborers (slaves) like the poor migrants who built Dubai. There's gotta be a balance in between. Govt needs to step in.

Re: Questions

#320
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good observations! You forgot one major thing. This goes for all of Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. The winter is horribly dark and boring. (Unless you're super rich). Therefore most turn inwards, staying indoors, thinking deeply at problems, spending endless afternoons and nights on things. Be it software development, game development, car tuning, car engine work, engineering, knitting or just reading loads of…

The other major thing (and I would argue more important than the others) is Sweden's wealth and social safety net. Wealth is one of the most important factors for someone to found a startup. You aren't going out and starting a company if you have to work 80 plus hours a week to live. Just look at the clueless opinions of so many tech founders about how "you shouldn't pay yourself a salary at first after you take inve…

I agree with your first 2 paragraphs, but the third is being overly simplistic (or potentially just not understanding the trade-off at play).

The scenario is that (roughly) 90% of the hypergrowth-style startups which raise a first round will fail to achieve enough momentum to successfully raise a second. And due to the business model choices they've committed to, failing to raise at that point is equivalent to going out of business. A first raise is often too small to be able to do everything they'd like, so they suggest decide that it's in their best interest (long term) to forgo a salary where possible, in order to buy a few extra months of progress before you're forced to start shopping for investment again.

Of course, folks give advice based on their own experience, but it doesn't always generalise to folks in different situations, which is potentially why that would seem like silly advice in (what I assume is) your scenario.

(minor edits toward the end for clarification)

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