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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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311–320 of 434 posts

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nigerians are primarily Muslims. More like 50%/50% > What about Indians? Who are usually either Hindu or Muslim? Most are Hindu or Sikh

> Most are Hindu or Sikh Oh right, Pakistan is where the Muslims come from. Apologies, its sometimes hard to remember everything about the world. But yeah, neither of those are Christian. Both are IIRC Polythistic religions, about as different from Christianity as possible. Muslims for example believe in Abraham and the existence of Jesus. Their story is... very different but Allah is clearly the God of Abraham / Yah…

> But yeah, neither of those are Christian. Both are IIRC Polythistic religions, about as different from Christianity as possible.

Many Hindus believe that the numerous deities are different forms or aspects of one ultimate deity. As such, they are much closer to monotheism than you think. It can be described as "inclusive monotheism", as opposed to the "exclusive monotheism" of the Abrahamic religions.

Sikhism is not polytheistic at all, it is very monotheistic.

Christianity itself has been accused of polytheism. Many Jews, Muslims, and non-Trinitarian Christians argue that there is no real difference between Trinity and tritheism. Many Protestants accuse the Catholic and Orthodox cult of Mary and the Saints of bordering on polytheism. Mormonism (admittedly on the fringe of Christianity) sees the Father, Son and Holy Spirit as three separate "beings", although it redefines the word "God" to refer to those three beings collectively. Mormon theology also implies that God the Father has a wife (the Heavenly Mother), and of other gods ruling over other universes (or parts of the universe.)

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#312
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bullshit. I provided sources showing that this is, empirically, what happens, no matter what you would like to believe. > If the pay is right, you will find plenty of people to pick produce. Obviously! But once you do that, the produce costs so much that no one wants to buy it. That is the fundamental issue here.

> Obviously! But once you do that, the produce costs so much that no one wants to buy it. That is the fundamental issue here. the market will correct itself. why would anyone want to pick raspberry for $10 an hour when I can get paid more working at in & out. Basically we should support shitty working conditions and black market labor because people dont wanna pay more for their produce?

> the market will correct itself.

...and the market of voters will "correct" the elected politicians. Which is why no politician is foolish enough to do this, and they have a monopoly on making laws.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. If you think about it, most species reproduce when resources are abundant, and stop reproducing when resources become scarce. That's basically what is happening to young people here.

It's the opposite with humans. 3rd world/developing countries have extremely high birth rates. The best mechanism for "population control" in people is to improve a population's standard of living.

3rd world has high birth rates because:

- lack of birth control and related education - desire for “free” manual labor to work stuff such as farm fields - desire to ensure continuity of one’s family tree (i.e. high mortality rates for infants and children due dangerous conditions and/or lack of healthcare)

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#314
post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

Has there been a reduction in legal immigration? Just curious what the actual numbers are.

There has been a noticeable difference in the quality in top universities in the US. No really top student from anywhere really wants to navigate the nonsense that US immigration is.

The only people who are coming in are reasonably well off, but desperate to move.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#315
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time agriculture-heavy states crack down on illegal immigration, crops rot on the vine because nobody else wants those jobs, even in periods of high unemployment. Here's the story from Georgia, there are identical ones from the Southwest as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/crops-rot... . Your choice is not between illegal im…

Sometimes "nobody doing it" is the correct answer. It might not be economically viable for the USA to grow strawberries. We can import strawberries or find something else to eat. In the long-term, automation may help. We can also pay a tiny bit more for our strawberries. At retail level, the cost of farm labor is is tiny portion of the total cost. Crops don't rot on the vine if farmers know the labor situation in adv…

>We can import strawberries or find something else to eat.

> Whenever the supply of illegal aliens is reduced, wages rise. The "living wage" can not happen in the presence of illegal aliens. Once wages rise, Americans take the jobs. You can even see this today in the record-low unemployment rates.

So we import our strawberries and wages will rise? How can both of these things be true? And the alternative is we won't eat strawberries anymore?

What you're proposing is setting our country up to be a worse place on the individual level "hey, why can't I find strawberries in my grocery store?" and on the national level, because we'll be beholden to whoever we're importing from.

There's a reason why a country should grow its own food. It's critical for our national security that we not be dependent on outsiders for something so basic.

Whoever told you they're doing this to "Make America Great Again" was lying to you. Not being able to buy strawberries would make America worse.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#316
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes "nobody doing it" is the correct answer. It might not be economically viable for the USA to grow strawberries. We can import strawberries or find something else to eat. In the long-term, automation may help. We can also pay a tiny bit more for our strawberries. At retail level, the cost of farm labor is is tiny portion of the total cost. Crops don't rot on the vine if farmers know the labor situation in adv…

> Sometimes "nobody doing it" is the correct answer. It might not be economically viable for the USA to grow strawberries. We can import strawberries or find something else to eat. I actually agree with this, but society has decided that "food security" is an important component of national security and that the country would like to maintain domestic food production even if it is uneconomical. And that's fine, if th…

It wasn't four years of a consistent labor situation without any expectation of change. It was four years of ups and downs with changing politics. It would be reasonable for a farmer to expect that there will be a massive amnesty, and then that doesn't happen. Some farmers simply have four years worth of emergency funds and a whole lot of stubbornness.

Also, I should have said "crops MOSTLY don't rot on the vine" because:

Even if the labor supply is stable, some crops will still be left to rot. The production of the land and the demands of the consumers are both subject to change. This affects the price. Given the current price, some farms may decide to not bother harvesting.

Farms aren't always 100% serious. Lots of them are almost a hobby, or for tax reasons. (if you can claim your home is a farm, you may pay lower property taxes, and there are even income tax advantages)

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#317
post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

Another nativist who displays his/her prejudice under the guise of Illegal vs legal immigrant.Go spend a year outside of United States and come tell us how your experience looks like.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#318
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Durr Durr but the next Einstein

If we were serious about finding the next Einstein we would be attempting to maximize the pairing of individuals who could produce such a person. This may someday be feasible, as genetic testing and online dating begin to intersect, but the time is not yet.

Please watch Gattaca, very relevant to your comment.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#319
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

In many states the employment market is so tight that jobs are going unfilled. This is especially true in blue-collar jobs that require interfacing with computers and advanced machinery. In many areas with higher unemployment rate, employers still complain they can't find anyone who can pass a drug test. We do have a mismatch -- lots of employers simply aren't yet paying enough to get employees. And agricultural empl…

> In many states the employment market is so tight that jobs are going unfilled.

That has been the case for a mere 12-18 months out of the last decade.

You know why liberals used to be against allowing vast inflows of unskilled labor? They fully understood the obvious consequences to the workers their party represented, as it pertained to wages & employment prospects. Make that labor more scarce and wages rise. It's the reason Bernie Sanders used to openly advocate against allowing large amounts of unskilled labor immigration.

No other developed nation uses the immigration approach that the US uses. Everyone else favors a merit based system and favors immigrants that can pay for their social benefits. This is why Canada is so annoyed with the US right now on immigrants crossing the border into Canada. [1] A few thousand illegal immigrants cross over each month and Canada is begging the US to make it stop. Out of the entire planet, only the US is held to a different standard, everyone else is allowed to restrict unskilled labor immigration. The US is uniquely backwards in its approach to heavily limiting skilled labor and simultaneously allowing unlimited amounts of unskilled labor.

Where's the international condemnation for Canada's approach to restricting hispanic immigration into their nation? Why are they not called racist for it? They're a mere 1.5% hispanic, specifically because they won't allow unskilled labor from Latin America into the country.

That's an extremely ugly, hypocritical double standard. If the US behaves exactly as Canada does, it's called racist, xenophobic, etc.

I'll note that the sole reason the Republicans are supporting / allowing the low skill immigration approach (and why they've blocked Trump's attempt to shift to a merit system), is that it benefits business margins: they want as much cheap labor as they can get to suppress wages. It's why the Koch brothers are such big proponents of it.

The vast, endless supply of unskilled labor that has flooded the US for decades is partially responsible for low wage growth among lower skilled workers in the US over that time. If there's always more low-skilled labor, wages will not rise for low-skilled laborers. It's basic supply and demand. As automation increasingly hammers low-skill laborers, that effect will get dramatically worse.

The other critical reason why the US is going to be forced to end its immigration policies: you can't support an increasingly generous welfare state matched against vast inflows of unskilled labor that can't pay for its own benefits programs. This is why other developed nations follow a pay-your-way merit system. If you can't support yourself, Canada generally isn't letting you in. A couple million low-skill immigrants coming into their nation would bankrupt their welfare system and collapse their healthcare system. The US welfare state is now more generous than Canada's, so how is the US expected to continue to afford it? You want universal healthcare? You can never have that unless you change the immigration system to restrict inflows of unskilled labor.

The US should flip its policies: continue to allow in some reasonable amount of low-skill labor, and allow in a lot more high-skill labor (which helps pay for the benefits cost of the low-skill labor). As the US moves gradually toward universal healthcare, and continues to increase the generosity of its welfare state, this will become a fiscal necessity, just as it is in all other developed nations and for the exact same reason.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-immigration-border...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Being white"'s an interesting phrase to use, because I don't think Irish (or Italians at a different point) were considered white at the time they were being discriminated against here. It shows how much whiteness is socially constructed.

They were considered white. (Italians and Greeks weren't though)

Hm, it's easy to find credible claims that they weren't, e.g. https://history.howstuffworks.com/historical-events/when-iri...
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