Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last? • Hacker News Board

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#311

Post by niftich » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:19 PM UTC

technofire wrote: post #177

danielvf wrote: post #9

I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently. Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of sho…

> the prosperous part of the Southeast For those of us who are unfamiliar or ignorant about this, which parts of the Southeast are most prosperous?

Let's define Southeast as below the 36°30' and east of the Mississippi (i.e. we're definitely excluding VA, DC, WV, KY, and anything west of the Mississippi including Louisiana).

Those actively gaining on rankings of 'prosperity' include Nashville, Charlotte, Charleston SC, and Raleigh-Durham [1]. Atlanta has a good amount of preexisting prosperity, though it's not ranking as high now. Greenville has seem a fair bit of growth as well.

Subjectively, you can perceive that these metropolitan areas are doing a lot better than others in the Southeast.

[1] https://www.brookings.edu/research/metro-monitor-2017/

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#312

Post by ramses0 » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:20 PM UTC

southphillyman wrote: post #189

ransom1538 wrote: post #108

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)" Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not…

Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet. Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it", and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

Never do anything by yourself which requires a permit (HVAC, Plumbing/Gas, Electrical), unless w.r.t. electrical it's low voltage boxes covered by standard switchplates with the breaker box off.

Never do anything structural/load-bearing. Avoid touching window-headers/columns, door-headers/columns, that random beam in the middle of your living room, that random pillar that you wish you know what was for, and that really inconvenient wall between your kitchen and your dining room (those are likely "important" points).

Other than that, paint... sheetrock... siding... sheds... trim... cosmetics... run wires... drill (some) holes... attach things to things... it's your house!

I learned the most by watching Income Property and Holmes on Homes.

http://www.diynetwork.com/shows/income-property

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holmes_on_Homes

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#313

Post by soVeryTired » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:21 PM UTC

smallnamespace wrote: post #120

pure_ambition wrote: post #41

No it won't last, because as soon as the wages start coming up then the fed will say "inflation is heating up" and raise interest rates, causing businesses to spend more on debt service and less on employees.

Higher rates only affects new issuances of bonds, rolling over of existing debt, or bank loans (which are a small fraction of the total debt market in developed economies). The average maturity of a corporate bond is now 15+ years, and most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that doesn't vary due to current rates [1]. That means that any change to rates will not have much of an immediate impact on the interest expense l…

You think rolling over of debt and new issuance is less important than interest income?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#314

Post by jseliger » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:22 PM UTC

mikeokner wrote: post #141

Another key factor is that a lot of baby boomers are reaching retirement age. With every kid being told college is the only path to become "successful," there's going to be a lack of talent in the trades at least in the near term that's going to continue driving wages higher.

I've been teaching college students at non-elite schools for ten years, and it's obvious to me (and pretty much any intellectually honest person) that college has been oversold; many students floundering in college would be better served by trade schools: http://seliger.com/2017/06/16/rare-good-political-news-boost...

Not everyone should be specializing in abstract symbol manipulation.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#315

Post by graphitezepp » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:22 PM UTC

ashark wrote: post #227

mtone wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just favoring the early birds. Go look at statistics on lack of sleep, and consider the massive health, productivity and creativity implications. Surely, you will not assert that a third of the population lack sleep because of attitude or responsibility issues?

A bit OT, but I blame artificial lighting and (especially) in-the-home, always-available, on-demand, hyper-stimulating entertainment on glowing screens. I once spent a couple weeks living only by candlelight after 8:30 or so, no screens. It's hard not to get enough sleep that way. You can still read, play board games/cards, write, study, play or listen to music, prep/cook food, talk(!), and tons of other stuff, but g…

I really would like to see red shifted lighting + use of flux (or similar) on all devices compared in efficacy to more extreme no lighting what so ever. I personally have no felt a difference but I am wary of that being wishful thinking on my part as I don't want to cut out computer use.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#316

Post by vorotato » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:22 PM UTC

chrisbennet wrote: post #226

moduspol wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a case at all to be made for personal responsibility when such a large percentage don't even bother to show up? How can one possibly ever get out of poverty if s/he can't even make it to an interview?

They say "There are no bad dogs, just bad owners." I think the problems are cultural. (a) Two working parents or a single parent family may result in children "being raised by wolves" to some extent. These are good parents/people but child rearing is a time intensive business. (b) Lack of jobs for young people. In my neighborhood, a lot of lawn mowing jobs are done by services instead of the neighborhood kid. The "en…

For my first job out of highschool I applied to over 40 locations, and finally got an unpaid job tips only as a rickshaw driver. I'm pretty sure it was illegal for them to do that, but I also really needed a job. For context I'm 28 and live in the american south east.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#317

Post by brandon272 » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:23 PM UTC

turc1656 wrote: post #48

nesyt wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you against this? Flexible working hours that can bend to accommodate very malleable human lives seems better than rigid adherence to traditional schedules for the sake of it.

I imagine what dionidium is getting at is the lack of good, reasonable cause to either not show up or be late. For example, I'm fortunate enough to have a high paying job in the finance industry and our office/company is pretty laid back and very good about the work/life balance thing. But managers here would react in two different ways to people being out late drinking and oversleeping vs. there being a massive acci…

> How else will they know if you will make it to a client call early in the morning? Or meet that deadline?

I guess it boils down to a matter of trust. You've hired someone to get a job done. If you don't trust them to do it, fire them and replace them with someone you do trust.

The whole "you need to be in your chair at 9am daily because it's the only way I know you'll show up to client meetings and meet project deadlines" seems bizarre and gaslighty. Why not allow people the autonomy to do their job in a way that best suits them in terms of maximizing productivity? If someone misses a client meeting or deadline, that's the signal that you have a problem.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#318

Post by westbywest » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:24 PM UTC

thanatropism wrote: post #26

westbywest wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A substantial factor in licensed tradespersons' ability to collect the wages they get is that many situations require the work be done by a license holder. For example electrical or plumbing repairs done to satisfy a building code violation are often expected to have permit paperwork documenting the repair. License = ability to pull permit.

What, can't a tradesman certify that a job was done to code remotely? We allow people to get degrees online. Of course, some things (is the screw really tight?) can't be verified by video only, but possibly one could devise smarter tools like pressure gauges and some such that can be shown over a video call.

The licenses tradesmen carry also tend to be paired with some sort of insurance or bond to back up the fitness of their work. Were it my plumber's license and liability coverage, for example, I'd be hesitate to approve a sweated pipe weld just from video footage. And the market for cheap sonar/magnetic gadgetry or whatever for laypersons to inspect the welds on bathroom plumbing probably just isn't there.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#319

Post by roseburg » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:24 PM UTC

runeks wrote: post #293

teej wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be 10 people willing to spend $inf for a loaf of bread and only 5 loaves. Supply of skilled work isn't immediately elastic.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

Supply shortage of workers, plain and simple.

A. Takes time for new workers to be adequately trained.

B. Takes even longer to get people that have been raised to look down on the trades to change their worldview and all of a sudden consider working with their hands, no matter how much money is involved.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#320

Post by mindcrime » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 7:24 PM UTC

opportune wrote: post #258

moduspol wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody questions your personal ability to voluntarily provide for them, though. The question is how much the rest of us are involuntarily having to provide for them, and more relevantly, whether or not society is even really being improved if the result is an increasing number of people so unable / unwilling to contribute to society that they can't even be bothered to show up for an interview. It is very easy to spen…

Well ok, but that's up to our votes to decide. You may vote one way and I will vote my way. If you don't want to provide for these people under these circumstances, vote for someone who will roll back welfare. The system wouldn't work if taxes were voluntary (how many people were poor before welfare when charity was the only way people got help?) so I see no moral hazard in coercing people who don't want to support t…

You may vote one way and I will vote my way.

"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. Liberty is a well-armed sheep contesting the outcome".

I see no moral hazard in coercing people

and that's the problem. Coercion is inherently immoral as it denies agency, which is the very essence of humanity. Agency / self-control is the fundamental difference between being a human being, and being a piece of property.