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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#311

Post by varjag »

mrguyorama wrote: post #310
varjag wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course just like everyone on HN am aware of the book and heard this quote a billion+ times. And of course I know it's badly misused in this particular case (as it often is).

software development parallelization works about as well as it does for actual software, ie non-linearly at best. Add to that overhead/mistakes/difficulties caused by "synchronization" and you come to the conclusion that a significant amount of that "30 man years" of software had to be just discarded when rebuilt

But consider that the existing "30 man years" design had couple year calendar time for it at most. Doesn't that say something about the task at hand?

EDIT guess this is just rephrasing of your point, in a way.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#312

Post by Smaug123 »

rrhd wrote: post #140
Smaug123 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Except in this case it's more than other way. The market is fine, it's tesla causing issues.

Sorry, I thought the analogy was clear, but evidently it wasn't :) "Tesla can remain irrational longer than the investors can continue to bet against it". More of a flippant remark than anything.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#313

Post by Animats »

Retric wrote: post #283
coldtea wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a moot point though. If you want to compete in a market, you got to play at the speed/quality/prices of the market -- there is no slack given for being new.

Tesla's profit margins are fine, this is all a question of ramping up to cover demand. Which tends to be much simpler when you are already a huge company. Their real risk is if the Model 3's reliability is bad or they need a recall thus reducing their profits significantly.

What they've been ramping up is the Model 3's price point.

"The truth is the Model 3 costs $40,000 if you want a standard version with autopilot (an extra $5,000) in black with no other options. If you want a different color, add $1,000. And if you want a longer range ($9,000) to get over 300 miles per charge instead of 220, well now we’re at $50,000. $50,000 for a midrange car."[1]

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/31/16069960/tesla-model-3-no...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#314

Post by Retric »

Animats wrote: post #313
Retric wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's profit margins are fine, this is all a question of ramping up to cover demand. Which tends to be much simpler when you are already a huge company. Their real risk is if the Model 3's reliability is bad or they need a recall thus reducing their profits significantly.

What they've been ramping up is the Model 3's price point. "The truth is the Model 3 costs $40,000 if you want a standard version with autopilot (an extra $5,000) in black with no other options. If you want a different color, add $1,000. And if you want a longer range ($9,000) to get over 300 miles per charge instead of 220, well now we’re at $50,000. $50,000 for a midrange car." [1] [1] https://www.theverge.com/2017…

Autopilot is not a standard mid range car feature.

"Enhanced Autopilot adds these new capabilities to the Tesla Autopilot driving experience. Your Tesla will match speed to traffic conditions, keep within a lane, automatically change lanes without requiring driver input, transition from one freeway to another, exit the freeway when your destination is near, self-park when near a parking spot and be summoned to and from your garage."

You can get adaptive cruse control for more reasonable costs, but lane changing takes a lot more awareness around the car.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#315

Post by TeMPOraL »

_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #259
TeMPOraL wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have earned that. There aren't many companies who care about anything other than making money.

I have a bridge to sell ... So Tesla is good ("anything other than making money"), and Nissan with doing more good by selling more Leafs is not? If Nissan is good, which electic car producer is bad? I would agree on SpaceX - though a cynic might say it's Musks way out of the earth catastrophe[1] - but with many more companies selling electric cars the argument falls flat for me. Especially if one looks at all the all…

> So Tesla is good ("anything other than making money"), and Nissan with doing more good by selling more Leafs is not?

Not saying that. But where were the other automakers when Tesla was single-handedly pushing against the market to make EVs viable?

I get people are cynical, but come on. Musk has been actually proving for years that he cares, and the goals for Tesla and SpaceX were idealistic for as long as he was involved, did not change, and the companies did nothing to suggest they're not what he says they are.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#316

Post by TeMPOraL »

kerbalspacepro wrote: post #295
TeMPOraL wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest, but knowing Musk, he'd consider that a win. The point of Tesla under his lead was always to make transportation electric ASAP; not necessarily for Tesla to be the biggest player forever. I.e. Tesla is means to an end, not an end itself.

Tesla is a means to an end... value for its stockholders.

Well, not really.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#317

Post by inventtheday »

wott wrote: post #255
kgwgk wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $1.4bn is $300mn cash flows used in operating activities + $1.1bn capex.

So, can we assume that if the production has to be multiplied by 10, the cash flow used for operating activities should also be multiplied by almost 10, giving expenses of way more than $1.4bn?

No, because a huge cost for them right now is underutilization of assets (factory, tooling, some workers, etc.). Their utilization rate will improve, and so operating costs should not scale linearly with revenue growth. "Should" being the key word.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#318

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #315
_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bridge to sell ... So Tesla is good ("anything other than making money"), and Nissan with doing more good by selling more Leafs is not? If Nissan is good, which electic car producer is bad? I would agree on SpaceX - though a cynic might say it's Musks way out of the earth catastrophe[1] - but with many more companies selling electric cars the argument falls flat for me. Especially if one looks at all the all…

> So Tesla is good ("anything other than making money"), and Nissan with doing more good by selling more Leafs is not? Not saying that. But where were the other automakers when Tesla was single-handedly pushing against the market to make EVs viable? I get people are cynical, but come on. Musk has been actually proving for years that he cares, and the goals for Tesla and SpaceX were idealistic for as long as he was in…

Musk? How? By giving away money? Or by making money? I'm confused.
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