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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#311

Post by letsgetphysITal »

donatj wrote: post #259
justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> I have never been in an accident.

Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence.

A lot of the new safety features are for low-speed collision protection, automatically sounding horn and applying breaks when your car gets close to another, say in traffic. Unless you go top-range you generally won't get actual driving automation. Other than that it's just convenience; Climate control instead of air con, reversing sensors and camera instead of (as well as) mirrors and turning your head around etc.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#312

Post by bengale »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #302
petepete wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 85% of new cars 'sold' in the UK are either PCP or Hired Purchase[0]. Anecdotally, it's really apparent amongst my peers; many are driving new (less than two years old) BMW, Audi and Mercedes that would probably cost a whole years wage or more outright. Luckily, for people like me who buy almost new for cash, this is a good thing. [0] http://uk.businessinsider.com/statistics-uk-bank-exposure-pc...

I've noticed this same thing, but don't quite follow the logic fully. Like, why don't they just PCP or Hire Purchase a cheaper car. They'd get whatever benefit the PCP provides, and spend less money. What about the PCP convinces them (rightly or wrongly) that they can afford those cars? There's so many people doing it I feel I must be the one that is wrong, and there's some tax dodge or something they are taking adva…

Maybe they just want a nicer car?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#313

Post by ZeroGravitas »

bengale wrote: post #312
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed this same thing, but don't quite follow the logic fully. Like, why don't they just PCP or Hire Purchase a cheaper car. They'd get whatever benefit the PCP provides, and spend less money. What about the PCP convinces them (rightly or wrongly) that they can afford those cars? There's so many people doing it I feel I must be the one that is wrong, and there's some tax dodge or something they are taking adva…

Maybe they just want a nicer car?

Everyone wants a nicer car, but usually there's good reasons why they haven't bought one. It seems like something has shifted recently and many people have cars nicer than they would have previously.

Possibly nice cars are just cheaper, or everyone is richer or people can get credit for cars where before they couldn't.

It might just be me, I thought people spent too much on cars anyway, and now they seem to have nicer, newer cars, so I assume they're spending even more, but as a non-car guy maybe that only seems weird to me.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#314

Post by justadeveloper2 »

justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

All that extra tech is unnecessary junk, though. I like the backup cameras, but just recently had an near-incident where that didn't help either. It's up to you what you want in a new car, but I'll tell you from experience, all those extras are just going to break and have problems and cost big bucks to fix (or you'll have a Christmas tree of warning lights on the dash while you ignore this or that malfunctioning feature).

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#315

Post by kylecordes »

jackmodern wrote: post #245
aphextron wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

5k, how? I don't see any less than 8k on autotrader.

I've heard stories over the years of "plausibly desirable car X is selling for around price $Y!" - yet when I look around a bit, prices are always much higher.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#316

Post by [deleted] »

throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295
hueving wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. Don't run into stuff? Most of that tech is only useful if you are an absent-minded driver and even then it only covers some cases (e.g. emergency braking doesn't help if the car in front of you slammed into something and you were fo…

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

[deleted]

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#317

Post by LeifCarrotson »

cesarb wrote: post #207
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, 20A? How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house? 200A (at 240V split phase) is standard here in the Midwestern US. It's easy and cheap to get more if you want a better connection, such as for an EV or a home shop with welders and large motors.

> Seriously, 20A? How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house? The poster mentioned Spain, which uses 230V (unlike the USA, which uses 120V), so 20A should be around 4600W if I did the calculation correctly. With a quick search I found a window AC with 18000 BTU using only 1700W, so even with 15A it would be possible to run one AC with plenty to spare.

The USA uses 120V for outlets and lighting, but most buildings have what we call "split phase" where 240V is available between two opposing sine waves. A neutral down the middle gives you 120 from either of these phases. Large appliances run on 240V dedicated circuits, the rest are 120.

And 4600 KW is only a couple tons. You'll need more than that for a 5-ton central HVAC to cool an average house in a hot or humid area.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#318

Post by sundvor »

hueving wrote: post #273
justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

>It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. Don't run into stuff? Most of that tech is only useful if you are an absent-minded driver and even then it only covers some cases (e.g. emergency braking doesn't help if the car in front of you slammed into something and you were fo…

First of all, I think the word "accident" is crap. It should be called crash in most cases, and crashes are more often than not avoidable. Predominant cause: Driver error. If you glance in the mirror, something might catch your attention there, and if someone cuts in front of you at that very moment, that's when AEB (or the "normal braking" + warning from dynamic cruise) can come in real handy.

Also having Dynamic Cruise might teach you what a proper following distance is; hint, most people have no idea about what 2 seconds gap actually equates to. The DCC distance is typically set in seconds, or at least in the Mazda it is (1,2,3 or 4). Even 1 second is more than most people give, in Melbourne Australia.

Speaking as a 2014 Mazda 3 Astina owner, this tech works. Including if someone cuts in and then slams their brakes. Autonomous braking functions is the biggest safety invention since the Dynamic Stability Control. Try to Google effectiveness of AEB, and it's quite conclusive.

E.g. "The findings showed a 38 percent overall reduction in rear-end crashes for vehicles fitted with AEB compared to a comparison sample of similar vehicles." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275772651_Effective...

I'm excited by the new Tesla cars extra sensor and autonomous driver tech packages, which includes so many more ways of reading the environment than what my "mere" Mazda 3 radar + cameras offer. If I had the budget, I'd definitely be getting into that.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#319

Post by ProblemFactory »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #302
petepete wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 85% of new cars 'sold' in the UK are either PCP or Hired Purchase[0]. Anecdotally, it's really apparent amongst my peers; many are driving new (less than two years old) BMW, Audi and Mercedes that would probably cost a whole years wage or more outright. Luckily, for people like me who buy almost new for cash, this is a good thing. [0] http://uk.businessinsider.com/statistics-uk-bank-exposure-pc...

I've noticed this same thing, but don't quite follow the logic fully. Like, why don't they just PCP or Hire Purchase a cheaper car. They'd get whatever benefit the PCP provides, and spend less money. What about the PCP convinces them (rightly or wrongly) that they can afford those cars? There's so many people doing it I feel I must be the one that is wrong, and there's some tax dodge or something they are taking adva…

There is no secret trick or advantage to it. They buy the nicest car they can (barely) afford the monthly payments for, not one that makes most financial sense.

> What about the PCP convinces them (rightly or wrongly) that they can afford those cars?

At the end of the PCP plan, you don't get to keep the car (it's more of a rental than a purchase). Therefore the monthly payments on a 3-5 year PCP are going to be lower than on just a loan for the full price of the car. That makes it more "affordable" to people than actually buying a car - and the issue of what to do in 3 years time, when you will have no car, is conveniently forgotten.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#320

Post by cylinder »

FussyZeus wrote: post #171
wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

I mean does this really shock anyone? There are like no less than 20 used lots in my city alone (which is hardly a metro hub) all of which have probably at least a hundred used cars on the lot. And that's JUST the used dealership market, not even counting the new dealers, the private sellers, the rental places getting rid of cars, or anybody else I'm not thinking of. There are actual quantifiable fuckloads of cars in…

In 2012 there were actually less cars per capita in the US than many parts of Europe including Italy. The difference is that in the US, auto financing is ridiculously easy for purchase and lease, combined with the general financial irresponsibility of the population, you see a lot of new and expensive cars driven by people with below average incomes and they return the lease and get a new car every few years whereas in other countries people drive their cars into the ground.
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