311–320 of 376 posts
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https://xkcd.com/947/
Ten years is short. Thirty years at 6% gives you $200k, for instance.
1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)
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World annual traffic deaths in 2010 were estimated by the WHO to be 1.25 million. If Elon Musk has the guts to let people voluntarily test out a system that ends up killing 100 people (and this estimate seems very high. The system could save more than it kills during development) but develops a system that reduces traffic deaths by just 50% one year earlier, that would be saving 625,000 lives. From a practical human…
The problem with this is he is selling it as a working product. Imagine if pharmaceutical companies could eventually cure diseases by testing a drug on consumers, but sold it to them as working - when in reality it is going to kill a bunch of people while the company figures out what works. In the long run this could be a win, but would you be okay with that? The obvious solution to my complaint - rename Autopilot so…
The thing is, every product is working and not working at the same time to a degree. It is only a matter of statistics - are we better off with or without the product.
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> environment as well It's not going to do anything great for the environment and we've been over this on previous Tesla threads (years ago). Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.
> Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment. As of two years ago the only country where that was the case was India. Right before that, South Africa and China both became clean enough for EVs to be an environmental net positive. Power produced in the US is some of the cleanest in the world, and getti…
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How about retiring 2-5 years early? That's about what you get if you invest the $35k instead...
https://xkcd.com/947/
Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars."
The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion.
Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-).
In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.
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I dont know... Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide. A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs. Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.c…
The german manufactures are not asleep at the wheel, get into the newest E-Class and despite it being a lot cheaper than a Model S, the self driving capabilities are impressive. Don't even let me start on the interieur quality, which is my biggest gripe with Tesla considering their price segment.
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You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
Unless Musk gives away much of his wealth in his lifetime, he could very well be the world's first trillionaire. Think of Toyota and Exxon Mobil rolled into one with virtually no competition in sight. To put things in perspective, this car is just 10 grand more than a full featured Toyota Camry. In countries that import both cars and oil like India, the price of the Tesla would be less than a Camry if they reduce the…
If most of the things he plans to to are realized he will make even more money in the process.
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> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything. I feel this is going to be the killer for them.
I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line. The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.
Tesla recently announced they are ramping up their Model 3 production even more than what some people thought was already optimistic numbers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/tesla-mod... > For Musk to hit all of his targets, Tesla would need to build about 430,000 Model 3s by the end of next year. That’s more than all of the electric cars sold planet-wide last year. > Even if half of the Model 3 in…
An interesting follow up would be investigating how much those subsidies cost or earn for the governments that provide them e.g. if you can provide all your electricity from homegrown hydro electricity rather than imported gasoline, then how much money does it save you to have an EV on the road. Is all that value being passed onto EV users?
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You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
> Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far . I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million…
Time has already done that. He is simply put, the real deal. Major car OEMS are always talking about what they will do in three (or more) years from NOW. Elon has done it. Is doing it. And will continue to push the envelop. Zig Ziglar reminds us that EVERYONE sells. Elon is just that much better at it. Then he executes unlike very few others. I didn't get the merger, but now with the home batteries and commercial ones, I do. Brilliant.
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I see car companies getting off the shelf solutions from companies like Nvidia, which is what is being trained in Tesla's today. And Nvidia have their own demo. I genuinely wonder who owns the algorithm... It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective. The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get…
That is no longer true with respect to Mazda.