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Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

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Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#311

Post by Roybot »

nerfhammer wrote: post #247
stormbrew wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is literally all over the world, though. Google can barely launch a keyboard app outside the US. Or a payment system. Lyft is still constrained entirely to the US and a handful of large Asian cities. I think people severely underestimate Uber's worldwide push in preparing themselves to be a force to be reckoned with when the autonomous vehicle takes off.

Why wouldn't Toyota just launch Toyotas On Demand? If the cost of the car and fuel are the only significant costs, Toyota could probably do it more cheaply than Uber. Uber's network effect is its driver network. It will find it a lot harder to compete if you no longer need drivers, when it has to compete with real car companies that could be able to undercut them on cost.

I take it that Uber is betting on being thee brand for ride sharing. Maintaining market leadership is critically important for when autonomous cars take off. Even if any car manufacturer were able to undermine Uber on cost, Uber will already have a significant upper hand with people already seeing it as the company you call to get somewhere. The only question I ask myself when looking to go somewhere is, Uber or Lyft?

If car manufacturers tried to clone what Uber has built they'll probably flop on making the technology usable, and the experience may just be overall frustrating.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#312

Post by jcranmer »

joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff.

I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment:

Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why?

All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicles will bring to the world of transit basically boils down to a model that's a mixture between taxi service and (really crappy) bus service, both of which exist today and have existed for several decades--and basically predate the automobile when you think about it. Yet somehow self-driving vehicles are supposed to completely change the mix of transit use when it's not really adding any capability changes. So I'm genuinely curious as to what the magic sauce is that makes people so giddy for this future.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#313

Post by mantas »

jrockway wrote: post #139
soared wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we do know it would help. If your car can't physically see the car 1/4 mile ahead, but gets info that it has slammed on its brakes, thats very useful. If you've ever driven in bumper to bumper traffic on a highway you know how invaluable this info would be, even to a human driver. Plus info about road conditions (icy spots ahead!), etc..

I also feel like if you know where every car on the road is, you can also optimize the traffic light timing. There is no reason to sit at a red light at 2:00 in the morning when there are no other vehicles, pedestrians or bicycles on the road. But the law currently requires it.

So bicycles would have to carry the car-to-bicycle communication device too?

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#314

Post by guimarin »

riprowan wrote: post #308

A lot of comments here and I haven't seen one that addresses the problem of impulsivity. Many / most of the times I need a car are not schedulable events but impulses. For example when I'm working on a project around the house, it's typical to need to run up to the hardware store 3 times in a day. I think autonomous transport will be very popular but shared vehicles will be hardly more popular than Uber / taxis are n…

Yes. most people when confronted with the choice of a cheap shared ride, or the convenience of their own vehicle will choose a cheap shared ride. The cost on a per mile basis, will be close to 10x cheaper. I predict even you will change-over when confronted with that kind of choice. It seems inevitable.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#315

Post by overcast »

rubicon33 wrote: post #292
rorykoehler wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is exactly what Musk announced Tesla will be doing.

Hadn't heard that! This is why I'm not an entrepreneur apparently... Every time I have an idea, it's been done already by at least one person. Anyways, you wouldn't happen to have that announcement handy would you?

Good ideas are a dime a dozen. Whatever you're thinking, a thousand other people on the planet have DEFINITELY thought of as well. The difference between people with ideas, and entrepreneurs, is that entrepreneurs make an attempt to bring that idea to life.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#316

Post by anonymousDan »

jcranmer wrote: post #312
joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

Exactly, unless self driving cars become cheaper than taxis then what is the point?

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#317

Post by guimarin »

zubspace wrote: post #203
arijun wrote: post #116

I still don't understand why every company doing self driving cars is focusing on consumer cars while no major player is doing interstate trucking. Interstate trucking could pretty much be done now, and has several advantages. Driving on interstate freeways is orders of magnitude easier than driving in a city with pedestrians, bikes, cars parked in the road, etc. And there is a great monetization scheme--no driver me…

It's obvious that truck driving will be the automated sooner or later. But it will be a tough fight. How will the industry react/adapt? Take a look at the distribution of current jobs [1]. What perspective can you give people working as a truck driver right now? I believe, america first has to find an answer to this question before there will be automated trucks. [1] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/38266…

The industry will change/disappear overnight. Trucking will be 4x cheaper with 2x the transportation capacity when you remove the trucker. Doesn't matter how much unionized, etc. the industry is now. No group survives that.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#318

Post by dontreact »

riprowan wrote: post #308

A lot of comments here and I haven't seen one that addresses the problem of impulsivity. Many / most of the times I need a car are not schedulable events but impulses. For example when I'm working on a project around the house, it's typical to need to run up to the hardware store 3 times in a day. I think autonomous transport will be very popular but shared vehicles will be hardly more popular than Uber / taxis are n…

What about on-demand transportation doesn't meet the needs of your impulse to run to the hardware store? Just call for a car 6 (there and back) times and you won't worry about having to park on either side.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#319

Post by randomdata »

scarmig wrote: post #258
randomdata wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Same way a (smart) human drives: it will pull over. You mean carefully get to the nearest settlement as soon as possible? Some of these storms can last for days at a time. Stopping to wait it out in the middle of nowhere, especially if you don't have a full tank of fuel to keep the car warm for extended periods, is a pretty scary situation.

Hmmm. If the car decided, before your trip started, that it's too dangerous for anyone to drive where you want to go because of possible weather and environmental conditions mid-route, would that be useful or enraging?

I imagine a bit of both. Getting caught in a snow storm is a pretty horrible experience, and I would gladly stay home knowing I would have otherwise ended up in one. But at the same time the forecasting isn't all that great, so often the storms don't amount to anything, and you would have been perfectly fine to be out there. Sometimes the storms even come up without any warning (most of the snow we get – especially that which causes driving issues – is from the lake, not the clouds). Having to essentially hibernate in the winter because the car is always erring on the side of caution could become pretty enraging.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#320

Post by jfim »

Retric wrote: post #120
bambax wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive But how is this going to work? In cities, everyone uses their car at exactly the same time: roughly, between 8-9 in the morning and 5-7 in the evening. If you don't own a car, chances are you won't get one when you need it to get to work on time. Or, if there are enough cars for peak hours, then demand for new cars will…

Often you need a car to get to the subway which does not take that long. Slug lanes also become more useful with self driving cars. Combine the two and you get a self driving car to central location > car or public transit to city center > self driving car in the city. Remember parking is often 10+$ a day due to land value, so two ~4$ trips can be a net savings. Finally, even a 20-30% drop in demand would be huge in…

> Slug lanes also become more useful with self driving cars.

And faster. A lot of the traffic on highways is caused by rubbernecking, which self-driving cars are mostly immune to.

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